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Title: Modeling Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects.

Abstract

This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high - altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co - simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model . T h e framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios , both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte - Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event . 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure model s.more » Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional p robability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2 ) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer rea ctive power consumption profiles due to E3 . 3 ) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail , due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4 ) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failure s from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3 . These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays /protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5 ) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6 ) To help realize the long er - term impacts, a security constrained a lternating c urrent o ptimal p ower f low ( ACOPF ) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures , E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. T h is data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impac t of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development program at Sandia National Laboratories , a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energys National Nuclear Security Administration under co ntract DE - NA0003525.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)
OSTI Identifier:
1764794
Report Number(s):
SAND2021-0865
693780
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Pierre, Brian Joseph, Krofcheck, Daniel Joseph, Hoffman, Matthew John, Guttromson, Ross, Schiek, Richard, and Quiroz, Jimmy Edward. Modeling Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects.. United States: N. p., 2021. Web. doi:10.2172/1764794.
Pierre, Brian Joseph, Krofcheck, Daniel Joseph, Hoffman, Matthew John, Guttromson, Ross, Schiek, Richard, & Quiroz, Jimmy Edward. Modeling Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects.. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1764794
Pierre, Brian Joseph, Krofcheck, Daniel Joseph, Hoffman, Matthew John, Guttromson, Ross, Schiek, Richard, and Quiroz, Jimmy Edward. 2021. "Modeling Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects.". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1764794. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1764794.
@article{osti_1764794,
title = {Modeling Bulk Electric Grid Impacts from HEMP E1 and E3 Effects.},
author = {Pierre, Brian Joseph and Krofcheck, Daniel Joseph and Hoffman, Matthew John and Guttromson, Ross and Schiek, Richard and Quiroz, Jimmy Edward},
abstractNote = {This report presents a framework to evaluate the impact of a high - altitude electromagnetic pulse (HEMP) event on a bulk electric power grid. This report limits itself to modeling the impact of EMP E1 and E3 components. The co - simulation of E1 and E3 is presented in detail, and the focus of the paper is on the framework rather than actual results. This approach is highly conservative as E1 and E3 are not maximized with the same event characteristics and may only slightly overlap. The actual results shown in this report are based on a synthetic grid with synthetic data and a limited exemplary EMP model . T h e framework presented can be leveraged and used to analyze the impact of other threat scenarios , both manmade and natural disasters. This report d escribes a Monte - Carlo based methodology to probabilistically quantify the transient response of the power grid to a HEMP event. The approach uses multiple fundamental steps to characterize the system response to HEMP events, focused on the E1 and E3 components of the event . 1) Obtain component failure data related to HEMP events testing of components and creating component failure model s. Use the component failure model to create component failure conditional p robability density function (PDF) that is a function of the HEMP induced terminal voltage. 2 ) Model HEMP scenarios and calculate the E1 coupled voltage profiles seen by all system components. Model the same HEMP scenarios and calculate the transformer rea ctive power consumption profiles due to E3 . 3 ) Sample each component failure PDF to determine which grid components will fail , due to the E1 voltage spike, for each scenario. 4 ) Perform dynamic simulations that incorporate the predicted component failure s from E1 and reactive power consumption at each transformer affected by E3 . These simulations allow for secondary transients to affect the relays /protection remaining in service which can lead to cascading outages. 5 ) Identify the locations and amount of load lost for each scenario through grid dynamic simulation. This can be an indication of the immediate grid impacts from a HEMP event. In addition, perform more detailed analysis to determine critical nodes and system trends. 6 ) To help realize the long er - term impacts, a security constrained a lternating c urrent o ptimal p ower f low ( ACOPF ) is run to maximize critical load served. This report describes a modeling framework to assess the systemic grid impacts due to a HEMP event. This stochastic simulation framework generates a large amount of data for each Monte Carlo replication, including HEMP location and characteristics, relay and component failures , E3 GIC profiles, cascading dynamics including voltage and frequency over time, and final system state. T h is data can then be analyzed to identify trends, e.g., unique system behavior modes or critical components whose failure is more likely to cause serious systemic effects. The proposed analysis process is demonstrated on a representative system. In order to draw realistic conclusions of the impac t of a HEMP event on the grid, a significant amount of work remains with respect to modeling the impact on various grid components. ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS Supported by the Laboratory Directed Research and Development program at Sandia National Laboratories , a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology and Engineering Solutions of Sandia LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc. for the U.S. Department of Energys National Nuclear Security Administration under co ntract DE - NA0003525.},
doi = {10.2172/1764794},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1764794}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2021},
month = {1}
}