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Thermodynamic and dynamic contributions to future changes in summer precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea: a multi-RCM study

Journal Article · · Climate Dynamics
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  1. Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology (POSTECH) (Korea, Republic of)
  2. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
  3. Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)
  4. Kongju National Univ., Gongju (Korea, Republic of)
  5. Pusan National Univ., Busan (Korea, Republic of)
  6. Korea Inst. of Atmospheric Prediction Systems, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)
  7. Korea Inst. Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
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This study examines future changes in precipitation over Northeast Asia and Korea using five regional climate model (RCM) simulations driven by single global climate model (GCM) under two representative concentration pathway (RCP) emission scenarios. Focusing on summer season (June–July–August) when heavy rains dominate in this region, future changes in precipitation and associated variables including temperature, moisture, and winds are analyzed by comparing future conditions (2071–2100) with a present climate (1981–2005). Here, physical mechanisms are examined by analyzing moisture flux convergence at 850 hPa level, which is found to have a close relationship to precipitation and by assessing contribution of thermodynamic effect (TH, moisture increase due to warming) and dynamic effect (DY, atmospheric circulation change) to changes in the moisture flux convergence. Overall background warming and moistening are projected over the Northeast Asia with a good inter-RCM agreement, indicating dominant influence of the driving GCM. Also, RCMs consistently project increases in the frequency of heavy rains and the intensification of extreme precipitation over South Korea. Analysis of moisture flux convergence reveals competing impacts between TH and DY. The TH effect contributes to the overall increases in mean precipitation over Northeast Asia and in extreme precipitation over South Korea, irrespective of models and scenarios. However, DY effect is found to induce local-scale precipitation decreases over the central part of the Korean Peninsula with large inter-RCM and inter-scenario differences. Composite analysis of daily anomaly synoptic patterns indicates that extreme precipitation events are mainly associated with the southwest to northeast evolution of large-scale low-pressure system in both present and future climates.
Research Organization:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
Korea Inst. of Science and Technology Information; Korea Meteorological Administration Research and Development Program; USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-07NA27344
OSTI ID:
1762900
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL--817765; 1027926
Journal Information:
Climate Dynamics, Journal Name: Climate Dynamics Journal Issue: 11-12 Vol. 49; ISSN 0930-7575
Publisher:
Springer-VerlagCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (3)

Multi-RCM near-term projections of summer climate extremes over East Asia journal September 2018
Added value of very high resolution climate simulations over South Korea using WRF modeling system journal September 2019
A Projection of Extreme Precipitation Based on a Selection of CMIP5 GCMs over North Korea journal April 2019

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Korea
Northeast Asia
RCP scenarios
moisture flux convergence
precipitation
regional climate models