Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter

Sun, Lantao; Perlwitz, Judith; Richter, Jadwiga H.; Hoerling, Martin P.; Hurrell, James W.

doi:10.1029/2020gl090451

Title: Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter

Journal Article · Fri Nov 20 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2020gl090451· OSTI ID:1761515

^[1];

^[2];

^[3]; Hoerling, Martin P. ^[2];

^[1]

Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Boulder, CO (United States). Physical Sciences Lab.
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Weeks 3–6 averaged winter North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) predictive skill in a state-of-the-art coupled climate prediction system is attributed to two principle sources: upper and lower boundary conditions linked to the stratosphere and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), respectively. A 20-member ensemble of 45-day reforecasts over 1999–2015 is utilized, together with uninitialized simulations with the atmospheric component of the prediction system forced with observed radiative forcing and lower boundary conditions. NAO forecast skill for lead times out to 6 weeks is higher following extreme stratospheric polar vortex conditions (weak and strong vortex events) compared to neutral states. Enhanced weeks 3-6 NAO predictive skill for weak vortex events results primarily from stratospheric downward coupling to the troposphere, while enhanced skill for strong vortex events can be partly attributed to lower boundary forcing related to the ENSO phenomenon. Implications for forecast system development and improvement are discussed.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States); Colorado State Univ., Fort Collins, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89243018SSC000007

OSTI ID:: 1761515

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 47, Issue 22; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (50)

The role of North Atlantic–European weather regimes in the surface impact of sudden stratospheric warming events Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Grams, Christian M.; Papritz, Lukas Weather and Climate Dynamics, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-1-373-2020	journal	January 2020
The Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Prediction Project Database Vitart, F.; Ardilouze, C.; Bonet, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 98, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-16-0017.1	journal	January 2017
Subseasonal Prediction with and without a Well-Represented Stratosphere in CESM1 Richter, Jadwiga H.; Pegion, Kathy; Sun, Lantao Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 35, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-20-0029.1	journal	December 2020
The Timescale, Power Spectra, and Climate Noise Properties of Teleconnection Patterns Feldstein, Steven B. Journal of Climate, Vol. 13, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2000)013<4430:TTPSAC>2.0.CO;2	journal	December 2000
A New Sea Surface Temperature and Sea Ice Boundary Dataset for the Community Atmosphere Model Hurrell, James W.; Hack, James J.; Shea, Dennis Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2292.1	journal	October 2008
Robust skill of decadal climate predictions Smith, D. M.; Eade, R.; Scaife, A. A. npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol. 2, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-019-0071-y	journal	May 2019
How confident are predictability estimates of the winter North Atlantic Oscillation? Weisheimer, Antje; Decremer, Damien; MacLeod, David Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 145, Issue S1 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3446	journal	February 2019
The predictability of the extratropical stratosphere on monthly time-scales and its impact on the skill of tropospheric forecasts: Stratospheric Predictability and Tropospheric Forecasts Tripathi, Om P.; Baldwin, Mark; Charlton-Perez, Andrew Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 141, Issue 689 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2432	journal	October 2014
North Atlantic climate variability: The role of the North Atlantic Oscillation Hurrell, James W.; Deser, Clara Journal of Marine Systems, Vol. 78, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jmarsys.2008.11.026	journal	August 2009
Assessing Seasonal Predictability Sources and Windows of High Predictability in the Climate Forecast System, Version 2 Miller, Douglas E.; Wang, Zhuo Journal of Climate, Vol. 32, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0389.1	journal	February 2019
Enhanced seasonal forecast skill following stratospheric sudden warmings Sigmond, M.; Scinocca, J. F.; Kharin, V. V. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1698	journal	January 2013
Assessment of representations of model uncertainty in monthly and seasonal forecast ensembles: ASSESSMENT OF MODEL UNCERTAINTY Weisheimer, Antje; Palmer, T. N.; Doblas-Reyes, F. J. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048123	journal	August 2011
Decadal predictability of North Atlantic blocking and the NAO Athanasiadis, Panos J.; Yeager, Stephen; Kwon, Young-Oh npj Climate and Atmospheric Science, Vol. 3, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41612-020-0120-6	journal	June 2020
Daily High-Resolution-Blended Analyses for Sea Surface Temperature Reynolds, Richard W.; Smith, Thomas M.; Liu, Chunying Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1824.1	journal	November 2007
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 1. Predictability of the Stratosphere Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Butler, Amy H.; Charlton‐Perez, Andrew J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 125, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030920	journal	January 2020
The Teleconnection of El Niño Southern Oscillation to the Stratosphere Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Garfinkel, Chaim I.; Butler, Amy H. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 57, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018RG000596	journal	January 2019
The Role of the Stratosphere in Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction: 2. Predictability Arising From Stratosphere‐Troposphere Coupling Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Butler, Amy H.; Charlton‐Perez, Andrew J. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 125, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030923	journal	January 2020
Stratospheric initial conditions provide seasonal predictability of the North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillations Nie, Yu; Scaife, Adam A.; Ren, Hong-Li Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab0385	journal	March 2019
The Subseasonal Experiment (SubX): A Multimodel Subseasonal Prediction Experiment Pegion, Kathy; Kirtman, Ben P.; Becker, Emily Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 100, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0270.1	journal	October 2019
The missing Northern European winter cooling response to Arctic sea ice loss Screen, James A. Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms14603	journal	March 2017
Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions: Potential applications of subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictions White, Christopher J.; Carlsen, Henrik; Robertson, Andrew W. Meteorological Applications, Vol. 24, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/met.1654	journal	April 2017
The Climate-system Historical Forecast Project: do stratosphere-resolving models make better seasonal climate predictions in boreal winter?: Seasonal Climate Prediction in High-Top vs. Low-Top Models Butler, Amy H.; Arribas, Alberto; Athanassiadou, Maria Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 142, Issue 696 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2743	journal	March 2016
The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system Dee, D. P.; Uppala, S. M.; Simmons, A. J. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 656 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828	journal	April 2011
JRA-55 based surface dataset for driving ocean–sea-ice models (JRA55-do) Tsujino, Hiroyuki; Urakawa, Shogo; Nakano, Hideyuki Ocean Modelling, Vol. 130 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2018.07.002	journal	October 2018
Prospects and Limitations of Seasonal Atmospheric GCM Predictions Kumar, Arun; Hoerling, Martin P. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 76, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(1995)076<0335:PALOSA>2.0.CO;2	journal	March 1995
Twentieth century north atlantic climate change. Part I: assessing determinism Hurrell, J. W.; Hoerling, M. P.; Phillips, A. S. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 23, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0432-y	journal	July 2004
Seasonal Prediction Skill of Northern Extratropical Surface Temperature Driven by the Stratosphere Jia, Liwei; Yang, Xiaosong; Vecchi, Gabriel Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0475.1	journal	June 2017
A stratospheric connection to Atlantic climate variability Reichler, Thomas; Kim, Junsu; Manzini, Elisa Nature Geoscience, Vol. 5, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1586	journal	September 2012
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1	journal	September 2013
Effects of stratospheric variability on El Niño teleconnections Richter, J. H.; Deser, C.; Sun, L. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/12/124021	journal	December 2015
Current and Emerging Developments in Subseasonal to Decadal Prediction Merryfield, William J.; Baehr, Johanna; Batté, Lauriane Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0037.1	journal	June 2020
Prediction Skill of the NAO and PNA from Daily to Seasonal Time Scales Johansson, Åke Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI4072.1	journal	May 2007
Evolution of ECMWF sub-seasonal forecast skill scores: Evolution of the ECMWF Sub-Seasonal Forecast Skill Vitart, Frédéric Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 140, Issue 683 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2256	journal	January 2014
North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply Smith, D. M.; Scaife, A. A.; Eade, R. Nature, Vol. 583, Issue 7818 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-020-2525-0	journal	July 2020
The impact of the MJO on clusters of wintertime circulation anomalies over the North American region Riddle, Emily E.; Stoner, Marshall B.; Johnson, Nathaniel C. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 40, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1493-y	journal	August 2012
Enhanced long-range forecast skill in boreal winter following stratospheric strong vortex conditions Tripathi, Om P.; Charlton-Perez, Andrew; Sigmond, Michael Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 10, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/10/10/104007	journal	October 2015
Skillful long-range prediction of European and North American winters: Scaife et al.: Predictability of the NAO Scaife, A. A.; Arribas, A.; Blockley, E. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL059637	journal	April 2014
Tracing North Atlantic Oscillation Forecast Errors to Stratospheric Origins Kolstad, Erik W.; Wulff, C. Ole; Domeisen, Daniela I. V. Journal of Climate, Vol. 33, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-20-0270.1	journal	November 2020
Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation Hurrell, J. W. Science, Vol. 269, Issue 5224 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.269.5224.676	journal	August 1995
Influence of variations in extratropical wintertime teleconnections on northern hemisphere temperature Hurrell, James W. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 23, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/96GL00459	journal	March 1996
Seasonal Predictability over Europe Arising from El Niño and Stratospheric Variability in the MPI-ESM Seasonal Prediction System Domeisen, Daniela I. V.; Butler, Amy H.; Fröhlich, Kristina Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00207.1	journal	December 2014
A robust empirical seasonal prediction of winter NAO and surface climate Wang, L.; Ting, M.; Kushner, P. J. Scientific Reports, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-017-00353-y	journal	March 2017
Tropical and Stratospheric Influences on Extratropical Short-Term Climate Variability Newman, Matthew; Sardeshmukh, Prashant D. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2118.1	journal	September 2008
Seasonal winter forecasts and the stratosphere Scaife, A. A.; Karpechko, A. Yu.; Baldwin, M. P. Atmospheric Science Letters, Vol. 17, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.598	journal	October 2015
Windows of Opportunity for Skillful Forecasts Subseasonal to Seasonal and Beyond Mariotti, Annarita; Baggett, Cory; Barnes, Elizabeth A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 101, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-18-0326.1	journal	May 2020
The importance of stratospheric initial conditions for winter North Atlantic Oscillation predictability and implications for the signal-to-noise paradox O'Reilly, Christopher H.; Weisheimer, Antje; Woollings, Tim Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 145, Issue 718 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3413	journal	December 2018
Stratospheric Harbingers of Anomalous Weather Regimes Baldwin, M. P. Science, Vol. 294, Issue 5542 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1063315	journal	October 2001
Intraseasonal interaction between the Madden–Julian Oscillation and the North Atlantic Oscillation Cassou, Christophe Nature, Vol. 455, Issue 7212 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature07286	journal	September 2008
The NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2 Saha, Suranjana; Moorthi, Shrinivas; Wu, Xingren Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00823.1	journal	March 2014
Twentieth century North Atlantic climate change. Part II: Understanding the effect of Indian Ocean warming Hoerling, M. P.; Hurrell, J. W.; Xu, T. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 23, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0433-x	journal	June 2004

Similar Records

Attribution of North American Subseasonal Precipitation Prediction Skill

Journal Article · Tue Nov 01 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Weather and Forecasting · OSTI ID:1761515

Sun, Lantao; Hoerling, Martin P.; Richter, Jadwiga H.; +3 more

Subseasonal Earth System Prediction with CESM2

Journal Article · Wed Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 2022 · Weather and Forecasting · OSTI ID:1761515

Richter, Jadwiga H.; Glanville, Anne A.; Edwards, James; +12 more

Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Wintertime Northern Hemisphere Extratropical Cyclone Activity by S2S and NMME Models

Journal Article · Wed Nov 27 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres · OSTI ID:1761515

Zheng, Cheng; Chang, Edmund Kar‐Man; Kim, Hyemi; +2 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES

Title: Attribution of NAO Predictive Skill Beyond 2 Weeks in Boreal Winter

Citation Formats

References (50)

Similar Records

Related Subjects