Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost

Schaefer, Kevin; Elshorbany, Yasin; Jafarov, Elchin; Schuster, Paul F.; Striegl, Robert G.; Wickland, Kimberly P.; Sunderland, Elsie M.

doi:10.1038/s41467-020-18398-5

Title: Potential impacts of mercury released from thawing permafrost

Journal Article · Wed Sep 16 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Nature Communications

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-020-18398-5· OSTI ID:1661719

; Elshorbany, Yasin; Jafarov, Elchin;

;

Abstract Mercury (Hg) is a naturally occurring element that bonds with organic matter and, when converted to methylmercury, is a potent neurotoxicant. Here we estimate potential future releases of Hg from thawing permafrost for low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios using a mechanistic model. By 2200, the high emissions scenario shows annual permafrost Hg emissions to the atmosphere comparable to current global anthropogenic emissions. By 2100, simulated Hg concentrations in the Yukon River increase by 14% for the low emissions scenario, but double for the high emissions scenario. Fish Hg concentrations do not exceed United States Environmental Protection Agency guidelines for the low emissions scenario by 2300, but for the high emissions scenario, fish in the Yukon River exceed EPA guidelines by 2050. Our results indicate minimal impacts to Hg concentrations in water and fish for the low emissions scenario and high impacts for the high emissions scenario.

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Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001; NNX10AR63G; NNX06AE65G; NNX13AM25G; NNX17AC59A; NA09OAR4310063; ARC 10901962; 1204167; 1553171; AGS 1900795

OSTI ID:: 1661719

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1760605

Report Number(s):: LA-UR-20-25429; 4650; PII: 18398

Journal Information:: Nature Communications, Journal Name: Nature Communications Vol. 11 Journal Issue: 1; ISSN 2041-1723

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United Kingdom

Language:: English

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