Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

Sayedi, Sayedeh Sara; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Thornton, Brett F.; Frederick, Jennifer M.; Vonk, Jorien E.; Overduin, Paul; Schädel, Christina; Schuur, Edward A. G.; Bourbonnais, Annie; Demidov, Nikita; Gavrilov, Anatoly; He, Shengping; Hugelius, Gustaf; Jakobsson, Martin; Jones, Miriam C.; Joung, DongJoo; Kraev, Gleb; Macdonald, Robie W.; David McGuire, A.; Mu, Cuicui; O’Regan, Matt; Schreiner, Kathryn M.; Stranne, Christian; Pizhankova, Elena; Vasiliev, Alexander; Westermann, Sebastian; Zarnetske, Jay P.; Zhang, Tingjun; Ghandehari, Mehran; Baeumler, Sarah; Brown, Brian C.; Frei, Rebecca J.

doi:10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29

Title: Subsea permafrost carbon stocks and climate change sensitivity estimated by expert assessment

Journal Article · Tue Dec 22 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Environmental Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/abcc29· OSTI ID:1760368

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^[6]; Schuur, Edward A. G. ^[6]; Bourbonnais, Annie ^[7]; Demidov, Nikita ^[8]; Gavrilov, Anatoly ^[9];

^[10]; Hugelius, Gustaf ^[2]; Jakobsson, Martin ^[2];

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^[12]; Kraev, Gleb ^[13]; Macdonald, Robie W. ^[14]; David McGuire, A. ^[15]; Mu, Cuicui ^[16] more »

Brigham Young Univ., Provo, UT (United States)
Stockholm Univ. (Sweden)
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Vrije Univ., Amsterdam (Netherlands)
Alfred Wegener Inst. Helmholtz Center for Polar and Marine Research, Potsdam (Germany)
Northern Arizona Univ., Flagstaff, AZ (United States)
Univ. of South Carolina, Columbia, SC (United States)
Arctic and Antarctic Research Inst. (AARI), St. Petersburg (Russian Federation)
Lomonosov Moscow State Univ. (Russian Federation)
Univ. of Bergen (Norway); Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway)
US Geological Survey, Reston, VA (United States)
Univ. of Rochester, NY (United States)
Vrije Univ., Amsterdam (Netherlands); Russian Academy of Sciences (RAS), Pushchino (Russian Federation)
Inst. of Ocean Sciences, Sidney (Canada)
Univ. of Alaska, Fairbanks, AK (United States)
Lanzhou Univ. (China)
Univ. of Minnesota, Duluth, MN (United States)
Tyumen Scientific Center of SB RAS, Tyumen (Russian Federation)
Univ. of Oslo (Norway)
Michigan State Univ., East Lansing, MI (United States)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
Medici Land Governance, UT (United States)
Ludwig Maximilian Univ., Munich (Germany)
Univ. of Alberta, Edmonton, AB (Canada)

The continental shelves of the Arctic Ocean and surrounding seas contain large stocks of organic matter (OM) and methane (CH4), representing a potential ecosystem feedback to climate change not included in international climate agreements. We performed a structured expert assessment with 25 permafrost researchers to combine quantitative estimates of the stocks and sensitivity of organic carbon in the subsea permafrost domain (i.e. unglaciated portions of the continental shelves exposed during the last glacial period). Experts estimated that the subsea permafrost domain contains ~560 gigatons carbon (GtC; 170–740, 90% confidence interval) in OM and 45 GtC (10–110) in CH₄. Current fluxes of CH₄ and carbon dioxide (CO₂) to the water column were estimated at 18 (2–34) and 38 (13–110) megatons C yr^–1, respectively. Under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) RCP8.5, the subsea permafrost domain could release 43 Gt CO_2^–equivalent (CO₂e) by 2100 (14–110) and 190 Gt CO₂e by 2300 (45–590), with ~30% fewer emissions under RCP2.6. The range of uncertainty demonstrates a serious knowledge gap but provides initial estimates of the magnitude and timing of the subsea permafrost climate feedback.

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Research Organization:: Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); National Science Foundation (NSF); National Key Research and Development Program of China; Russian Science Foundation; Russian Foundation for Basic Research; Swedish Science Foundation

Grant/Contract Number:: AC04-94AL85000; NA-0003525; 1331083; 1916565; 2019YFA0607003; 19-77-10065; 19-77-10066; 18-05-60004; 2018-04350

OSTI ID:: 1760368

Report Number(s):: SAND-2020-13621J; 692796

Journal Information:: Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 15, Issue 12; ISSN 1748-9326

Publisher:: IOP PublishingCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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