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Multi-Game Modeling for Counter-Smuggling

Journal Article · · Reliability Engineering and System Safety
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  1. Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
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International trade provides an avenue for terrorists to smuggle illicit materials into a target country. Policymakers need models and decision support tools that are both reliable and germane to inform their responses to this. Game theoretic approaches have been used in the analysis of counterterrorism strategies, but the models involved have often been small and abstracted. To address this need, we have developed a multi-game model to account for both security-related and economic aspects of counter-smuggling interdiction efforts. Additionally, we use different games to represent different types of interactions, and these games are then coupled to each other to form an integrated model. In this paper, we demonstrate the model's capabilities on a representative system of ports (both foreign and domestic), trade routes, and commodities. We specifically investigate the impacts of changes in screening policies at domestic ports, detection device capabilities, shipping subsidies, and worldwide corruption levels. In these studies, we find that economic factors play a large role in the interdiction task and provide correspondingly important tools for deterrence.
Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDHS Domestic Nuclear Detection Office; USDOE
Grant/Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1755154
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA--139977
Journal Information:
Reliability Engineering and System Safety, Journal Name: Reliability Engineering and System Safety Vol. 200; ISSN 0951-8320
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Related Subjects

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL PROTECTION
game theory
Deterrence
counter-terrorism
counter-smuggling
port security