Quantitative metrics for evaluating thermonuclear design codes and physics models applied to the National Ignition Campaign

Dimonte, Guy

doi:10.1063/1.5143887

Quantitative metrics for evaluating thermonuclear design codes and physics models applied to the National Ignition Campaign

Journal Article · Wed May 27 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Physics of Plasmas

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5143887· OSTI ID:1739981

^[1]

Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

In this study, physics models and design codes for hot dense plasmas undergoing thermonuclear burn are evaluated objectively using statistical metrics that compare the difference between calculations and data relative to the experimental uncertainties. The analysis is applied to the National Ignition Campaign (NIC) because it is relevant, comprehensive, and well documented. The statistics confirm that a key process afflicting NIC performance is mix driven by hydrodynamic instabilities as approximated here using the KL model [G. Dimonte and R. Tipton, Phys. Fluids 18, 085101 (2006)]. New physics models are also presented for instability-driven magnetic fields [B. Srinivasan et al., Phys. Rev. Lett. 108, 165002 (2012)] and the Coulomb logarithm for electron–ion thermal relaxation [G. Dimonte and J. Daligault, Phys. Rev. Lett. 101, 135001 (2008)]. The plasma-generated magnetic fields improve the agreement between code and data in a statistically significant manner by reducing the electron thermal conduction in the hot-spot via the Hall term. The Coulomb logarithm is presented in a numerically practical form that incorporates recent theoretical advances. However, it does not improve the agreement between the code and data because the thermal relaxation is so fast in non-ignited NIC plasmas that the typical 20% error does not change the tight coupling between electrons and ions. Even with these improved physics models, the one-dimensional simulations presented here are not able to describe the high-convergence NIC implosions in a statistically acceptable manner. Of the heroic multi-dimensional simulations of Clark et al. [Phys. Plasmas 23, 056302 (2016)], only those in three-dimensions satisfy the statistical acceptance criterion.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89233218CNA000001

OSTI ID:: 1739981

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1630965

Report Number(s):: LA-UR--20-20004

Journal Information:: Physics of Plasmas, Journal Name: Physics of Plasmas Journal Issue: 5 Vol. 27; ISSN 1070-664X

Publisher:: American Institute of Physics (AIP)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (61)

Experimental investigation of turbulent mixing by Rayleigh-Taylor instability Read, K. I. Physica D: Nonlinear Phenomena, Vol. 12, Issue 1-3 https://doi.org/10.1016/0167-2789(84)90513-X	journal	July 1984
Charged particle motion in a highly ionized plasma Brown, L.; Preston, D.; Singletonjr, R. Physics Reports, Vol. 410, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.physrep.2005.01.001	journal	May 2005
A numerical study of the influence of initial perturbations on the turbulent Rayleigh–Taylor instability Ramaprabhu, P.; Dimonte, Guy; Andrews, M. J. Journal of Fluid Mechanics, Vol. 536 https://doi.org/10.1017/S002211200500488X	journal	July 2005
Tripled yield in direct-drive laser fusion through statistical modelling Gopalaswamy, V.; Betti, R.; Knauer, J. P. Nature, Vol. 565, Issue 7741 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-019-0877-0	journal	January 2019
Indirect-drive noncryogenic double-shell ignition targets for the National Ignition Facility: Design and analysis Amendt, Peter; Colvin, J. D.; Tipton, R. E. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 9, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1459451	journal	May 2002
A comparative study of the turbulent Rayleigh–Taylor instability using high-resolution three-dimensional numerical simulations: The Alpha-Group collaboration Dimonte, Guy; Youngs, D. L.; Dimits, A. Physics of Fluids, Vol. 16, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1688328	journal	May 2004
Dante soft x-ray power diagnostic for National Ignition Facility Dewald, E. L.; Campbell, K. M.; Turner, R. E. Review of Scientific Instruments, Vol. 75, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.1788872	journal	October 2004
K-L turbulence model for the self-similar growth of the Rayleigh-Taylor and Richtmyer-Meshkov instabilities Dimonte, Guy; Tipton, Robert Physics of Fluids, Vol. 18, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.2219768	journal	August 2006
Simulations and model of the nonlinear Richtmyer–Meshkov instability Dimonte, Guy; Ramaprabhu, P. Physics of Fluids, Vol. 22, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3276269	journal	January 2010
Diagnosing and controlling mix in National Ignition Facility implosion experiments Hammel, B. A.; Scott, H. A.; Regan, S. P. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 18, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3567520	journal	May 2011
Point design targets, specifications, and requirements for the 2010 ignition campaign on the National Ignition Facility Haan, S. W.; Lindl, J. D.; Callahan, D. A. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 18, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3592169	journal	May 2011
Capsule implosion optimization during the indirect-drive National Ignition Campaign Landen, O. L.; Edwards, J.; Haan, S. W. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 18, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3592170	journal	May 2011
Hot-spot mix in ignition-scale implosions on the NIF Regan, S. P.; Epstein, R.; Hammel, B. A. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 19, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3694057	journal	May 2012
Shock timing experiments on the National Ignition Facility: Initial results and comparison with simulation Robey, H. F.; Boehly, T. R.; Celliers, P. M. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 19, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3694122	journal	April 2012
The velocity campaign for ignition on NIF Callahan, D. A.; Meezan, N. B.; Glenzer, S. H. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 19, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.3694840	journal	May 2012
A high-resolution integrated model of the National Ignition Campaign cryogenic layered experiments Jones, O. S.; Cerjan, C. J.; Marinak, M. M. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 19, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4718595	journal	May 2012
Mechanism for magnetic field generation and growth in Rayleigh-Taylor unstable inertial confinement fusion plasmas Srinivasan, Bhuvana; Tang, Xian-Zhu Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 19, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4742176	journal	August 2012
Implosion dynamics measurements at the National Ignition Facility Hicks, D. G.; Meezan, N. B.; Dewald, E. L. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 19, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4769268	journal	December 2012
Ejecta source model based on the nonlinear Richtmyer-Meshkov instability Dimonte, Guy; Terrones, Guillermo; Cherne, F. J. Journal of Applied Physics, Vol. 113, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4773575	journal	January 2013
Detailed implosion modeling of deuterium-tritium layered experiments on the National Ignition Facility Clark, D. S.; Hinkel, D. E.; Eder, D. C. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 20, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4802194	journal	May 2013
X-ray driven implosions at ignition relevant velocities on the National Ignition Facility Meezan, N. B.; MacKinnon, A. J.; Hicks, D. G. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 20, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4803915	journal	May 2013
Progress towards ignition on the National Ignition Facility Edwards, M. J.; Patel, P. K.; Lindl, J. D. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 20, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4816115	journal	July 2013
Review of the National Ignition Campaign 2009-2012 Lindl, John; Landen, Otto; Edwards, John Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 21, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4865400	journal	February 2014
The high-foot implosion campaign on the National Ignition Facility Hurricane, O. A.; Callahan, D. A.; Casey, D. T. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 21, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4874330	journal	May 2014
High-density carbon ablator experiments on the National Ignition Facility MacKinnon, A. J.; Meezan, N. B.; Ross, J. S. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 21, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4876611	journal	May 2014
An in-flight radiography platform to measure hydrodynamic instability growth in inertial confinement fusion capsules at the National Ignition Facility Raman, K. S.; Smalyuk, V. A.; Casey, D. T. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 21, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4890570	journal	July 2014
Radiation hydrodynamics modeling of the highest compression inertial confinement fusion ignition experiment from the National Ignition Campaign Clark, D. S.; Marinak, M. M.; Weber, C. R. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 22, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4906897	journal	February 2015
Three-dimensional hydrodynamics of the deceleration stage in inertial confinement fusion Weber, C. R.; Clark, D. S.; Cook, A. W. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 22, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4914157	journal	March 2015
Three-dimensional simulations of low foot and high foot implosion experiments on the National Ignition Facility Clark, D. S.; Weber, C. R.; Milovich, J. L. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 23, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4943527	journal	March 2016
Making inertial confinement fusion models more predictive Gaffney, Jim A.; Brandon, Scott T.; Humbird, Kelli D. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 26, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5108667	journal	August 2019
Analysis of NIF scaling using physics informed machine learning Hsu, Abigail; Cheng, Baolian; Bradley, Paul A. Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 27, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.5130585	journal	January 2020
A simple experiment to investigate two‐dimensional mixing by Rayleigh–Taylor instability Andrews, M. J.; Spalding, D. B. Physics of Fluids A: Fluid Dynamics, Vol. 2, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.857652	journal	June 1990
Weakly nonlinear hydrodynamic instabilities in inertial fusion Haan, S. W. Physics of Fluids B: Plasma Physics, Vol. 3, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.859603	journal	August 1991
Two waves on a beam-plasma system DeNeef, Peter Physics of Fluids, Vol. 18, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.861285	journal	January 1975
Experimental test of modulation theory and stochasticity of nonlinear oscillations Dimonte, Guy Physics of Fluids, Vol. 25, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.863805	journal	January 1982
An electron conductivity model for dense plasmas Lee, Y. T.; More, R. M. Physics of Fluids, Vol. 27, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.864744	journal	January 1984
Density ratio dependence of Rayleigh–Taylor mixing for sustained and impulsive acceleration histories Dimonte, Guy; Schneider, Marilyn Physics of Fluids, Vol. 12, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.870309	journal	February 2000
Richtmyer–Meshkov instability with strong radiatively driven shocks Dimonte, Guy; Frerking, C. Eric; Schneider, Marilyn Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 3, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.871889	journal	February 1996
Spanwise homogeneous buoyancy-drag model for Rayleigh–Taylor mixing and experimental evaluation Dimonte, Guy Physics of Plasmas, Vol. 7, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1063/1.874060	journal	June 2000
Radiation from a Low-Density Plasma at 10^{6} ° - 10^{8} ° K Tucker, W. H.; Gould, R. J. The Astrophysical Journal, Vol. 144 https://doi.org/10.1086/148601	journal	April 1966
Thermal conduction in laser fusion Brysk, H.; Campbell, P. M.; Hammerling, P. Plasma Physics, Vol. 17, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1088/0032-1028/17/6/007	journal	June 1975
The Physics of Inertial Fusion Atzeni, Stefano; Meyer-ter-Vehn, Jürgen https://doi.org/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198562641.001.0001	book	January 2004
Onset of nonlinear saturation for Rayleigh-Taylor growth in the presence of a full spectrum of modes Haan, Steven W. Physical Review A, Vol. 39, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevA.39.5812	journal	June 1989
Dependence of turbulent Rayleigh-Taylor instability on initial perturbations Dimonte, Guy Physical Review E, Vol. 69, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.69.056305	journal	May 2004
Correlation effects on the temperature-relaxation rates in dense plasmas Daligault, Jérôme; Dimonte, Guy Physical Review E, Vol. 79, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.79.056403	journal	May 2009
Inhibition of turbulence in inertial-confinement-fusion hot spots by viscous dissipation Weber, C. R.; Clark, D. S.; Cook, A. W. Physical Review E, Vol. 89, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevE.89.053106	journal	May 2014
Molecular-Dynamics Simulations of Electron-Ion Temperature Relaxation in a Classical Coulomb Plasma Dimonte, Guy; Daligault, Jerome Physical Review Letters, Vol. 101, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.101.135001	journal	September 2008
Magnetic field generation in Rayleigh-Taylor unstable inertial confinement fusion plasmas Srinivasan, Bhuvana; Dimonte, Guy; Tang, Xian-Zhu Physical Review Letters, Vol. 108, Issue 16 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.108.165002	journal	April 2012
Onset of Hydrodynamic Mix in High-Velocity, Highly Compressed Inertial Confinement Fusion Implosions Ma, T.; Patel, P. K.; Izumi, N. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 111, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.111.085004	journal	August 2013
Measurements of an Ablator-Gas Atomic Mix in Indirectly Driven Implosions at the National Ignition Facility Smalyuk, V. A.; Tipton, R. E.; Pino, J. E. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 112, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.112.025002	journal	January 2014
Novel Characterization of Capsule X-Ray Drive at the National Ignition Facility MacLaren, S. A.; Schneider, M. B.; Widmann, K. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 112, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.112.105003	journal	March 2014
Self-Generated Magnetic Fields in the Stagnation Phase of Indirect-Drive Implosions on the National Ignition Facility Walsh, C. A.; Chittenden, J. P.; McGlinchey, K. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 118, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.118.155001	journal	April 2017
Spontaneous Magnetic Fields in Laser-Produced Plasmas Stamper, J. A.; Papadopoulos, K.; Sudan, R. N. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 26, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.26.1012	journal	April 1971
Faraday-Rotation Measurements of Megagauss Magnetic Fields in Laser-Produced Plasmas Stamper, J. A.; Ripin, B. H. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.34.138	journal	January 1975
Magnetic Field Generation by the Rayleigh-Taylor Instability Mima, K.; Tajima, T.; Leboeuf, J. N. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 41, Issue 25 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.41.1715	journal	December 1978
Saturation Mechanisms for the Generated Magnetic Field in Nonuniform Laser-Matter Irradiation Haines, M. G. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 78, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.78.254	journal	January 1997
Ablative Stabilization of the Deceleration Phase Rayleigh-Taylor Instability Lobatchev, V.; Betti, R. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 85, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.85.4522	journal	November 2000
Observation of Megagauss-Field Topology Changes due to Magnetic Reconnection in Laser-Produced Plasmas Li, C. K.; Séguin, F. H.; Frenje, J. A. Physical Review Letters, Vol. 99, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1103/PhysRevLett.99.055001	journal	August 2007
Prediction Uncertainties beyond the Range of Experience: A Case Study in Inertial Confinement Fusion Implosion Experiments Osthus, Dave; Vander Wiel, Scott A.; Hoffman, Nelson M. SIAM/ASA Journal on Uncertainty Quantification, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1137/17M1158860	journal	January 2019
Unified Theory of Relaxations in Plasmas, I. Basic Theorem Kihara, Taro; Aono, Osamu Journal of the Physical Society of Japan, Vol. 18, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1143/JPSJ.18.837	journal	June 1963
Dynamics of Self-Generated Magnetic Fields in Stagnation Phase and their Effects on Hot Spark Formation Hata, Akiro; Mima, Kunioki; Sunahara, Astushi Plasma and Fusion Research, Vol. 1 https://doi.org/10.1585/pfr.1.020	journal	January 2006

Similar Records

Mechanism for magnetic field generation and growth in Rayleigh-Taylor unstable inertial confinement fusion plasmas

Journal Article · Wed Aug 15 00:00:00 EDT 2012 · Physics of Plasmas · OSTI ID:22086049

An in-flight radiography platform to measure hydrodynamic instability growth in inertial confinement fusion capsules at the National Ignition Facility

Journal Article · Tue Jul 15 00:00:00 EDT 2014 · Physics of Plasmas · OSTI ID:22299836

Hosing Instability in the Blow-Out Regime for Plasma-Wakefield Acceleration

Journal Article · Thu Dec 20 23:00:00 EST 2007 · Physical Review Letters · OSTI ID:21024617

Related Subjects

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY
analysis of variance
computer simulations
fluid instabilities
hydrodynamics
magnetic fields
molecular dynamics
nuclear fusion
plasma collisions
regression analysis
statistics

Quantitative metrics for evaluating thermonuclear design codes and physics models applied to the National Ignition Campaign

Citation Formats

References (61)

Similar Records

Related Subjects