Energy System Transitions and Low-Emission Pathways in Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU-28, India, Indonesia, Japan, Republic of Korea, Russia, and United States

Journal Article · Mon Feb 01 00:00:00 EST 2021 · Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2020.119385· OSTI ID:1734743

Fragkos, Panagiotis ^[1]; van Soest, Heleen ^[2]; Schaeffer, Roberto ^[3]; Reedman, Luke ^[4]; Koberle, Alex ^[5]; Macaluso, Nick ^[6]; Evangelopoulou, Stavroula ^[7]; De Vita, Alessia ^[8]; Sha, Fu ^[9]; Qimin, Chai ^[10]; Kejun, Jiang ^[11]; Mathur, Ritu ^[12]; Shekhar, Swapnil ^[13]; Boer, Rizaldi ^[14]; Dewi, Retno G. ^[15]; Herran, Diego S. ^[16]; Oshiro, Ken ^[17]; Fujimori, Shinichiro ^[18]; Park, Chan ^[19]; Safonov, George ^[20] ; Iyer, Gokul C.  ^[21]

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1. University of Athens
2. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
3. Federal University of Rio de Janeiro
4. CSIRO
5. COPPE/UFRJ
6. ECCC
7. E3Modelling
8. E3Modelling, Greece
9. National Center for Climate Change Strategy and International Cooperation
10. Tsinghua University
11. Energy Research Institute
12. The Energy and Resources Institute, India
13. TERI
14. BAU
15. CREP-ITB
16. IGES
17. Mizuho Information & Research Institute, Inc.
18. NIES, Japan
19. Seoul National University
20. HSE
21. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)

The Paris Agreement invited Parties to submit long-term, low-emission development strategies. This study presents national low-emission scenarios to inform such strategies for Australia, Brazil, Canada, China, EU, India, Indonesia, Japan, Russia, Republic of Korea and the USA. The study uses country-level energy–economy and integrated assessment models (IAMs) that incorporate detailed and disaggregated representations of the energy demand and supply systems that are difficult to capture in global IAMs. Models were used to explore low-carbon pathways up to 2050, providing insights in their implications for country emissions, energy system restructuring, energy–economy indicators and system costs. The analysis shows that the low-carbon scenarios of most economies studied here are consistent with pathways limiting global warming to below 2 °C.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1734743
• Report Number(s): PNNL-ACT-SA-10480
• Journal Information: Energy, Vol. 216
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English