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Title: Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.

Abstract

Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks.more » Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.« less

Authors:
; ; ; ; ; ; ; ; ;
Publication Date:
Research Org.:
Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)
Sponsoring Org.:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI Identifier:
1718986
Report Number(s):
SAND2020-11973
692310
DOE Contract Number:  
AC04-94AL85000
Resource Type:
Technical Report
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

Citation Formats

Makvandi, Monear, Wallis, Laurie Dawn, West, Celine Nicole, De Angelis, Haedi Elizabeth, VanWinkle, Zane, Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke, Acquesta, Erin, Beyeler, Walter E., Klise, Katherine A., and Finley, Patrick D. Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.. United States: N. p., 2020. Web. doi:10.2172/1718986.
Makvandi, Monear, Wallis, Laurie Dawn, West, Celine Nicole, De Angelis, Haedi Elizabeth, VanWinkle, Zane, Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke, Acquesta, Erin, Beyeler, Walter E., Klise, Katherine A., & Finley, Patrick D. Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.. United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1718986
Makvandi, Monear, Wallis, Laurie Dawn, West, Celine Nicole, De Angelis, Haedi Elizabeth, VanWinkle, Zane, Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke, Acquesta, Erin, Beyeler, Walter E., Klise, Katherine A., and Finley, Patrick D. Thu . "Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.". United States. https://doi.org/10.2172/1718986. https://www.osti.gov/servlets/purl/1718986.
@article{osti_1718986,
title = {Modeling efficient and equitable distribution of COVID-19 vaccines.},
author = {Makvandi, Monear and Wallis, Laurie Dawn and West, Celine Nicole and De Angelis, Haedi Elizabeth and VanWinkle, Zane and Halkjaer-Knudsen, Vibeke and Acquesta, Erin and Beyeler, Walter E. and Klise, Katherine A. and Finley, Patrick D.},
abstractNote = {Producing and distributing COVID-19 vaccine during the pandemic is a major logistical challenge requiring careful planning and efficient execution. This report presents information on logistical, policy and technical issues relevant to rapidly fielding a COVID-19 vaccination program. For this study we (a) conducted literature review and subject matter expert elicitation to understand current vaccine manufacturing and distribution capabilities and vaccine allocation strategies, (b) designed a baseline vaccine distribution strategy and modeling strategy to provide insight into the potential for targeted distribution of limited initial vaccine supplies, and (c) developed parametric interfaces to enable vaccine distribution scenarios to be analyzed in depth with Sandias Adaptive Recovery Model that will allow us evaluate the additional sub- populations and alternative distribution scenarios from a public health benefit and associated economic disruption Principal issues, challenges, and complexities that complicate COVID-19 vaccine delivery identified in our literature and subject matter expert investigation include these items: The United States has not mounted an urgent nationwide vaccination campaign in recent history. The existing global manufacturing and distribution infrastructure are not able to produce enough vaccine for the population immediately. Vaccines, once available will be scarce resources. Prioritization for vaccine allocation will be built on existing distribution networks. Vaccine distribution may not have a universal impact on disease transmission and morbidity because of scarcity, priority population demographics, and underlying disease transmission rates. Considerations for designing a vaccine distribution strategy are discussed. A baseline distribution strategy is designed and tested using the Adaptive Recovery Model, which couples a deterministic compartmental epidemiological model and a stochastic network model. We show the impact of this vaccine distribution strategy on hospitalizations, mortality, and contact tracing requirements. This model can be used to quantitatively evaluate alternative distribution scenarios, guiding policy decisions as vaccine candidates are narrowed down.},
doi = {10.2172/1718986},
url = {https://www.osti.gov/biblio/1718986}, journal = {},
number = ,
volume = ,
place = {United States},
year = {2020},
month = {10}
}