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Title: A meta-analysis of 1,119 manipulative experiments on terrestrial carbon-cycling responses to global change

Journal Article · · Nature Ecology & Evolution
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  1. Henan University
  2. Peking University
  3. Colorado State University
  4. University of Vermont
  5. Universiteit Antwerpen
  6. Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de I'Environment, CE Orme des Merisiers, Gif Sur Yvette
  7. University of Tasmania
  8. Auckland University of Technology
  9. University of Copenhagen
  10. Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences
  11. East China Normal University
  12. Northern Arizona University
  13. Chinese Academy of Sciences
  14. Villanova University
  15. Max Planck Institute
  16. Purdue University
  17. Woods Hole Research Center
  18. University of Toledo
  19. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
  20. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
  21. Northern Research Station, USDA Forest Service - New Hampshire
  22. Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences
  23. Boston University
  24. Virginia Tech
  25. Oakridge National Laboratory
  26. Indiana University-Bloomington
  27. Insitute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich
  28. CSIRO Ocean and Atmosphere Flagship
  29. Binzhou University
  30. UNIVERSITY PROGRAMS
  31. Henan
+ Show Author Affiliations

Direct quantification of terrestrial biosphere responses to global change is crucial for projections of future climate change in Earth system models. Here, we synthesized ecosystem carbon-cycling data from 1,119 experiments performed over the past four decades concerning changes in temperature, precipitation, CO2 and nitrogen across major terrestrial vegetation types of the world. Most experiments manipulated single rather than multiple global change drivers in temperate ecosystems of the USA, Europe and China. The magnitudes of warming and elevated CO2 treatments were consistent with the ranges of future projections, whereas those of precipitation changes and nitrogen inputs often exceeded the projected ranges. Increases in global change drivers consistently accelerated, but decreased precipitation slowed down carbon-cycle processes. Nonlinear (including synergistic and antagonistic) effects among global change drivers were rare. Belowground carbon allocation responded negatively to increased precipitation and nitrogen addition and positively to decreased precipitation and elevated CO2. The sensitivities of carbon variables to multiple global change drivers depended on the background climate and ecosystem condition, suggesting that Earth system models should be evaluated using site-specific conditions for best uses of this large dataset. Together, this synthesis underscores an urgent need to explore the interactions among multiple global change drivers in underrepresented regions such as semi-arid ecosystems, forests in the tropics and subtropics, and Arctic tundra when forecasting future terrestrial carbon-climate feedback.

Research Organization:
Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE
DOE Contract Number:
AC05-76RL01830
OSTI ID:
1688422
Report Number(s):
PNNL-SA-147134
Journal Information:
Nature Ecology & Evolution, Vol. 3, Issue 9
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Phylogenetic conservation of soil bacterial responses to simulated global changes journal March 2020
Response to the Editor: Assessing the robustness of communities and ecosystems in global change research journal November 2019
Understanding ecosystems of the future will require more than realistic climate change experiments – A response to Korell et al. journal October 2019
Understanding plant communities of the future requires filling knowledge gaps journal December 2019
Sensitivity of mangrove soil organic matter decay to warming and sea level change journal January 2020
Towards more predictive and interdisciplinary climate change ecosystem experiments text January 2019

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