Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site

Bacon, Diana H.; Demirkanli, Deniz I.; White, Signe K.

doi:10.1016/j.ijggc.2020.103153

Probabilistic risk-based Area of Review (AoR) determination for a deep-saline carbon storage site

Journal Article · Thu Sep 17 04:00:00 EDT 2020 · International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijggc.2020.103153· OSTI ID:1673596

^[1]; Demirkanli, Deniz I. ^[1]; ^[1]

Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Regulatory oversight of a geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) project relies on iterative estimations, throughout the project lifetime, of the area where increased risks to underground sources of drinking water (USDWs) may occur due to injection of CO2. This area, referred to as Area of Review (AoR), is typically delineated by predicting the migration of fluid between the reservoir and the lowermost USDW via an open wellbore using predictions from physics-based reservoir simulators. The inherent uncertainty in input parameters used in reservoir modeling therefore affects the accuracy of determining the AoR for a project. Furthermore, the standard analytical approaches for calculating a critical pressure to delineate the risk area yield an infinite AoR for cases where the injection reservoir is overpressured relative to the USDW. A methodology is presented in this paper to better characterize the risk to USDWs while accounting for the uncertainty in reservoir modeling, with an application to a permitted GCS project with an overpressured injection formation, FutureGen 2.0. The methodology is demonstrated using the National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source integrated assessment model (NRAP-Open-IAM) to develop a probabilistic estimate of impact risk to USDW quality. CO2 and pressure predictions from the reservoir modeling conducted using the STOMP-CO2 simulator for the FutureGen 2.0 site are used in a NRAP-Open-IAM model with reservoir, wellbore, and aquifer components to: (1) assess the extent of potential leakage into the USDW for the predicted reservoir pressure conditions; (2) evaluate the extent of potential impact using “no-net-degradation” thresholds; and (3) account for uncertainty in reservoir permeabilities.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Fossil Energy (FE)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-76RL01830

OSTI ID:: 1673596

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1809788

Report Number(s):: PNNL-SA--140276

Journal Information:: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control, Journal Name: International Journal of Greenhouse Gas Control Vol. 102; ISSN 1750-5836

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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