Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble From 1920 to 2100

Fasullo, John T.; Gent, Peter R.; Nerem, R. S.

doi:10.1029/2019jc016030

Title: Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble From 1920 to 2100

Journal Article · Thu May 07 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jc016030· OSTI ID:1667385

^[1]; Gent, Peter R. ^[2];

^[3]

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)

To provide context for observed sea level rise, the forced response (FR) in dynamic sea level (DSL) during the 20th and 21st centuries is examined in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble (LE). After accounting for simulation drift, which in the LE is sizable, the DSL FR is found to be complex, both in space and time. Its evolving character is suggested to arise from both the diversity and transient evolution of climate forcing agents and the slow adjustment timescales of the intermediate and deep oceans. Nonetheless, various intervals of spatially coherent change simulated for the recent past and near future are identified, and their characteristics and associated driving mechanisms are identified and discussed. The mid- to late-20th century DSL FR is characterized by an hemispherically asymmetric pattern of change, with depressed rates of rise in the northern oceans. There is also a dipole of change in the Southern Ocean caused by changes in near-surface zonal winds. Through the late 20th and early 21st centuries, a different pattern of rise emerges with elevated rates in the tropics and depressed rates at high latitudes. Zonal and interbasin variations characterize both intervals and involve the pattern and depth of anomalous ocean heat content storage and spatial contrasts in the expansion coefficient tied mainly to base state temperature, with greater rates of rise in warm regions per unit warming. Finally, the relative roles of surface flux and ocean convergence anomalies are examined.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Cite

Export

Save

Research Organization:: Univ. Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR), Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: 89243018SSC000007

OSTI ID:: 1667385

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Oceans, Vol. 125, Issue 6; ISSN 2169-9275

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (64)

Uncovering an anthropogenic sea-level rise signal in the Pacific Ocean Hamlington, B. D.; Strassburg, M. W.; Leben, R. R. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2307	journal	July 2014
Understanding projections of sea level rise in a Hadley Centre coupled climate model Lowe, Jason A.; Gregory, Jonathan M. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 111, Issue C11 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005JC003421	journal	January 2006
The ocean's role in polar climate change: asymmetric Arctic and Antarctic responses to greenhouse gas and ozone forcing Marshall, John; Armour, Kyle C.; Scott, Jeffery R. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 372, Issue 2019 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2013.0040	journal	July 2014
Variations in global mean sea level associated with the 1997-1998 ENSO event: Implications for measuring long term sea level change Nerem, R. S.; Chambers, D. P.; Leuliette, E. W. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 26, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1029/1999GL002311	journal	October 1999
Effect of La Niña on The Global Mean Sea Level And North Pacifc Ocean Mass Over 2005-2011 Dieng, Habib B.; Cazenave, Anny; Meyssignac, Benoit Journal of Geodetic Science, Vol. 4, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.2478/jogs-2014-0003	journal	January 2014
Can Southern Ocean Eddy Effects Be Parameterized in Climate Models? Bryan, Frank O.; Gent, Peter R.; Tomas, Robert Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00759.1	journal	January 2014
Interannual Variability in Global Mean Sea Level Estimated from the CESM Large and Last Millennium Ensembles Fasullo, John; Nerem, Robert Water, Vol. 8, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.3390/w8110491	journal	October 2016
Sea-Level Trend Uncertainty With Pacific Climatic Variability and Temporally-Correlated Noise Royston, Sam; Watson, Christopher S.; Legrésy, Benoît Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 123, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017JC013655	journal	March 2018
Dynamical suppression of sea level rise along the Pacific coast of North America: Indications for imminent acceleration Bromirski, Peter D.; Miller, Arthur J.; Flick, Reinhard E. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 116, Issue C7 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JC006759	journal	January 2011
Pattern scaling: Its strengths and limitations, and an update on the latest model simulations Tebaldi, Claudia; Arblaster, Julie M. Climatic Change, Vol. 122, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1032-9	journal	January 2014
Uncovering the Pattern of Forced Sea Level Rise in the Satellite Altimeter Record Hamlington, Benjamin D.; Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, R. Steven Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081386	journal	May 2019
A Shift in Western Tropical Pacific Sea Level Trends during the 1990s Merrifield, Mark A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 24, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI3932.1	journal	August 2011
Decadal Shift of NAO-Linked Interannual Sea Level Variability along the U.S. Northeast Coast Kenigson, Jessica S.; Han, Weiqing; Rajagopalan, Balaji Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0403.1	journal	July 2018
Past and future sea-level rise along the coast of North Carolina, USA Kopp, Robert E.; Horton, Benjamin P.; Kemp, Andrew C. Climatic Change, Vol. 132, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1451-x	journal	June 2015
Future Coastal Population Growth and Exposure to Sea-Level Rise and Coastal Flooding - A Global Assessment Neumann, Barbara; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Zimmermann, Juliane PLOS ONE, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0118571	journal	March 2015
A regional index of northeast Pacific variability based on satellite altimeter data: INDEX OF NORTHEAST PACIFIC VARIABILITY Cummins, Patrick F.; Lagerloef, Gary S. E.; Mitchum, Gary Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 17 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL023642	journal	September 2005
The impact of aerosols on simulated ocean temperature and heat content in the 20th century Delworth, Thomas L.; Ramaswamy, V.; Stenchikov, Georgiy L. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 32, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL024457	journal	January 2005
Increased nuisance flooding along the coasts of the United States due to sea level rise: Past and future: INCREASED NUISANCE FLOODING DUE TO SLR Moftakhari, Hamed R.; AghaKouchak, Amir; Sanders, Brett F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015GL066072	journal	November 2015
Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future Fasullo, John T.; Nerem, R. Steven Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 51 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1813233115	journal	December 2018
Identifying the causes of sea-level change Milne, Glenn A.; Gehrels, W. Roland; Hughes, Chris W. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 2, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo544	journal	June 2009
Isopycnal Mixing in Ocean Circulation Models Gent, Peter R.; Mcwilliams, James C. Journal of Physical Oceanography, Vol. 20, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0485(1990)020<0150:IMIOCM>2.0.CO;2	journal	January 1990
The Sea Level Response to External Forcings in Historical Simulations of CMIP5 Climate Models Slangen, Aimée B. A.; Church, John A.; Zhang, Xuebin Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0376.1	journal	November 2015
Low-frequency variations in global mean sea level: 1950–2000 Chambers, D. P. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, Issue C4 https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JC001089	journal	January 2002
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1	journal	August 2015
Is there a 60-year oscillation in global mean sea level?: 60-YEAR OSCILLATION IN GLOBAL SEA LEVEL Chambers, Don P.; Merrifield, Mark A.; Nerem, R. Steven Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 39, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012GL052885	journal	September 2012
Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900-2100 Gregory, J. M.; Church, J. A.; Boer, G. J. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 18, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s003820100180	journal	December 2001
Earth's energy imbalance and implications Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 11, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011	journal	January 2011
The Community Earth System Model: A Framework for Collaborative Research Hurrell, James W.; Holland, M. M.; Gent, P. R. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 94, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00121.1	journal	September 2013
Coastal sea level changes, observed and projected during the 20th and 21st century Carson, M.; Köhl, A.; Stammer, D. Climatic Change, Vol. 134, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1520-1	journal	October 2015
Response of the global ocean to Greenland and Antarctic ice melting Stammer, D. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue C6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2006JC004079	journal	January 2008
Millions projected to be at risk from sea-level rise in the continental United States Hauer, Mathew E.; Evans, Jason M.; Mishra, Deepak R. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2961	journal	March 2016
Rapid barotropic sea level rise from ice sheet melting: SLR FROM MELTWATER Lorbacher, K.; Marsland, S. J.; Church, J. A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 117, Issue C6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JC007733	journal	June 2012
Analysis of the regional pattern of sea level change due to ocean dynamics and density change for 1993–2099 in observations and CMIP5 AOGCMs Bilbao, Roberto A. F.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Bouttes, Nathaelle Climate Dynamics, Vol. 45, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2499-z	journal	February 2015
Climate model genealogy: Generation CMIP5 and how we got there: CLIMATE MODEL GENEALOGY Knutti, Reto; Masson, David; Gettelman, Andrew Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50256	journal	March 2013
On the Early Response of the Climate System to a Meltwater Input from Greenland Agarwal, Neeraj; Köhl, Armin; Mechoso, Carlos Roberto Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00762.1	journal	October 2014
Twentieth-Century Global-Mean Sea Level Rise: Is the Whole Greater than the Sum of the Parts? Gregory, J. M.; White, N. J.; Church, J. A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00319.1	journal	July 2013
Estimating Mean Sea Level Change from the TOPEX and Jason Altimeter Missions Nerem, R. S.; Chambers, D. P.; Choe, C. Marine Geodesy, Vol. 33, Issue sup1 https://doi.org/10.1080/01490419.2010.491031	journal	August 2010
Signatures of Indian Ocean Dipole and El Niño-Southern Oscillation events in sea level variations in the Bay of Bengal: SIGNATURES OF IOD AND ENSO Aparna, S. G.; McCreary, J. P.; Shankar, D. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 117, Issue C10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2012JC008055	journal	October 2012
Concepts and Terminology for Sea Level: Mean, Variability and Change, Both Local and Global Gregory, Jonathan M.; Griffies, Stephen M.; Hughes, Chris W. Surveys in Geophysics, Vol. 40, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-019-09525-z	journal	April 2019
Climate system response to stratospheric ozone depletion and recovery: Climate System Response to Stratospheric Ozone Depletion and Recovery Previdi, Michael; Polvani, Lorenzo M. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 140, Issue 685 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2330	journal	March 2014
A note on the representation of steric sea level in models that conserve volume rather than mass Greatbatch, Richard J. Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 99, Issue C6 https://doi.org/10.1029/94JC00847	journal	January 1994
Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt Katsman, Caroline A.; Hazeleger, Wilco; Drijfhout, Sybren S. Climatic Change, Vol. 91, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-008-9442-9	journal	August 2008
Attribution of ocean temperature change to anthropogenic and natural forcings using the temporal, vertical and geographical structure Bilbao, Roberto A. F.; Gregory, Jonathan M.; Bouttes, Nathaelle Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04910-1	journal	July 2019
Sea-level rise impacts on seawater intrusion in coastal aquifers: Review and integration Ketabchi, Hamed; Mahmoodzadeh, Davood; Ataie-Ashtiani, Behzad Journal of Hydrology, Vol. 535 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2016.01.083	journal	April 2016
Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Schurer, Andrew P. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab23c1	journal	July 2019
ISSM-SESAW v1.0: mesh-based computation of gravitationally consistent sea-level and geodetic signatures caused by cryosphere and climate driven mass change Adhikari, Surendra; Ivins, Erik R.; Larour, Eric Geoscientific Model Development, Vol. 9, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1087-2016	journal	January 2016
Are long tide gauge records in the wrong place to measure global mean sea level rise?: GLOBAL MEAN SEA LEVEL FROM TIDE GAUGES Thompson, P. R.; Hamlington, B. D.; Landerer, F. W. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016GL070552	journal	October 2016
On the Relationship between Regional Ocean Heat Content and Sea Surface Height Fasullo, John T.; Gent, Peter R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 30, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-16-0920.1	journal	November 2017
An ongoing shift in Pacific Ocean sea level: SHIFT IN PACIFIC OCEAN SEA LEVEL Hamlington, B. D.; Cheon, S. H.; Thompson, P. R. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 121, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016JC011815	journal	July 2016
Spatial Patterns of Sea Level Variability Associated with Natural Internal Climate Modes Han, Weiqing; Meehl, Gerald A.; Stammer, Detlef Surveys in Geophysics, Vol. 38, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-016-9386-y	journal	October 2016
Observed fingerprint of a weakening Atlantic Ocean overturning circulation Caesar, L.; Rahmstorf, S.; Robinson, A. Nature, Vol. 556, Issue 7700 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0006-5	journal	April 2018
Measuring Global Ocean Heat Content to Estimate the Earth Energy Imbalance Meyssignac, Benoit; Boyer, Tim; Zhao, Zhongxiang Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00432	journal	August 2019
The amplifying influence of increased ocean stratification on a future year without a summer Fasullo, J. T.; Tomas, R.; Stevenson, S. Nature Communications, Vol. 8, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-017-01302-z	journal	October 2017
Inter-annual to decadal sea-level variability in the coastal zones of the Norwegian and Siberian Seas: The role of atmospheric forcing: DECADAL SEA-LEVEL VARIABILITY Calafat, F. M.; Chambers, D. P.; Tsimplis, M. N. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 118, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrc.20106	journal	March 2013
Low-Frequency North Atlantic Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble Kim, Who M.; Yeager, Stephen; Chang, Ping Journal of Climate, Vol. 31, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-17-0193.1	journal	January 2018
Ocean Heat Uptake Processes: A Model Intercomparison Exarchou, Eleftheria; Kuhlbrodt, Till; Gregory, Jonathan M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 28, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00235.1	journal	January 2015
Global observations of large oceanic eddies: GLOBAL OBSERVATIONS OF OCEANIC EDDIES Chelton, Dudley B.; Schlax, Michael G.; Samelson, Roger M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 34, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007GL030812	journal	August 2007
Is the detection of accelerated sea level rise imminent? Fasullo, J. T.; Nerem, R. S.; Hamlington, B. Scientific Reports, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/srep31245	journal	August 2016
A theory for polar amplification from a general circulation perspective Lee, Sukyoung Asia-Pacific Journal of Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 50, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s13143-014-0024-7	journal	January 2014
Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 in observations and CMIP5 models: Earth's energy imbalance since 1960 Smith, Doug M.; Allan, Richard P.; Coward, Andrew C. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 42, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014GL062669	journal	February 2015
An assessment of Antarctic Circumpolar Current and Southern Ocean meridional overturning circulation during 1958–2007 in a suite of interannual CORE-II simulations Farneti, Riccardo; Downes, Stephanie M.; Griffies, Stephen M. Ocean Modelling, Vol. 93 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2015.07.009	journal	September 2015
Southern Ocean warming delayed by circumpolar upwelling and equatorward transport Armour, Kyle C.; Marshall, John; Scott, Jeffery R. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 9, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo2731	journal	May 2016
An Energy Conservation Analysis of Ocean Drift in the CMIP5 Global Coupled Models Hobbs, Will; Palmer, Matthew D.; Monselesan, Didier Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0477.1	journal	March 2016
Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era Nerem, R. S.; Beckley, B. D.; Fasullo, J. T. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717312115	journal	February 2018

Similar Records

Sea Level Rise in the CESM Large Ensemble: The Role of Individual Climate Forcings and Consequences for the Coming Decades

Journal Article · Fri Jul 10 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1667385

Fasullo, John T.; Gent, Peter R.; Nerem, R. Steven

The contribution of Humboldt Glacier, northern Greenland, to sea-level rise through 2100 constrained by recent observations of speedup and retreat

Journal Article · Fri Nov 11 00:00:00 EST 2022 · The Cryosphere (Online) · OSTI ID:1667385

Hillebrand, Trevor R.; Hoffman, Matthew J.; Perego, Mauro; +2 more

Projecting Antarctica's contribution to future sea level rise from basal ice shelf melt using linear response functions of 16 ice sheet models (LARMIP-2)

Journal Article · Fri Feb 14 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Earth System Dynamics (Online) · OSTI ID:1667385

Levermann, Anders; Winkelmann, Ricarda; Albrecht, Torsten; +34 more

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
sea level rise
regional climate change
climate modeling

Title: Forced Patterns of Sea Level Rise in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble From 1920 to 2100

Citation Formats

References (64)

Similar Records

Related Subjects