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Twofold expansion of Indo-Pacific warm pool warps MJO lifecycle

Journal Article · · Nature (Basingstoke. Online)
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [3];  [5]
  1. Indian Inst. of Tropical Meteorology, Pune (India); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA (United States). Pacific Marine Environmental Lab. (PMEL); University of Washington
  2. Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, India; Andhra Univ., Visakhapatnam (India)
  3. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Seattle, WA (United States). Pacific Marine Environmental Lab. (PMEL)
  4. Univ. of Tokyo (Japan)
  5. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
The Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO) is the most dominant mode of subseasonal variability in the tropics, characterized by an eastward moving disturbance of rain clouds. The MJO modulates the El Niño Southern Oscillation1, tropical cyclones and the monsoons—and contributes to severe weather events over Asia, Australia, Africa, Europe and the Americas. MJO events travel a stretch of 12,000–20,000 kms over the tropical oceans, which has been warming during the twentieth and early-twenty first centuries in response to greenhouse gas forcing, and is projected to warm further. However, the impact of this warming on the MJO lifecycle is largely unknown. Here we show that rapid warming over the tropical oceans during 1981–2018 has warped the MJO lifecycle, with its residence time decreasing over the Indian Ocean by 3–4 days, and increasing over the Indo-Pacific Maritime Continent by 5–6 days. We find that these changes in the MJO lifecycle is associated with a twofold expansion of the Indo-Pacific warm pool, which has been expanding on an average by 2.3 × 105 km2 (the size of Washington State) per year during 1900–2018 and at an accelerated average rate of 4 × 105 km2 (the size of California) per year during 1981–2018. The changes in the warm pool and the MJO are related to an increased rainfall over Southeast Asia, northern Australia, Southwest Africa and the Amazon, and drying over the west coast of United States and Ecuador.
Research Organization:
Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0016223
OSTI ID:
1659516
Journal Information:
Nature (Basingstoke. Online), Journal Name: Nature (Basingstoke. Online) Vol. 575; ISSN 1476-4687
Publisher:
Springer NatureCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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