A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems

Khattak, Zulqarnain H.; Fontaine, Michael D.

doi:10.1016/j.aap.2020.105544

Title: A Bayesian modeling framework for crash severity effects of active traffic management systems

Journal Article · Tue Sep 01 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Accident Analysis and Prevention

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.aap.2020.105544· OSTI ID:1649155

Khattak, Zulqarnain H. ^[1]; Fontaine, Michael D. ^[2]

Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Virginia Transportation Research Council, Charlottesville, VA (United States)

Transportation agencies utilize Active traffic management (ATM) systems to dynamically manage recurrent and non-recurrent congestion based on real-time conditions. While these systems have been shown to have some safety benefits, their impact on injury severity outcomes is currently uncertain. In this paper, we used full Bayesian mixed logit models to quantify the impact that ATM deployment had on crash severities. The estimation results revealed lower severities with ATM deployment. Marginal effects for ATM deployments that featured hard shoulder running (HSR) revealed lower likelihoods for severe and moderate injury crashes of 15.9 % and for minor injury crashes of 10.1 %. The likelihood of severe and moderate injury crashes and minor injury crashes reduced by 12.4 % and 8.33 % with ATM without HSR. The models were observed to be temporally transferable and had forecast error of 0.301 and 0.304 for the two models, revealing better performance with validation data. These results have implications for improving freeway crash risk at critical locations.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1649155

Journal Information:: Accident Analysis and Prevention, Vol. 145, Issue 1; ISSN 0001-4575

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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