Vulnerability of existing and planned coal-fired power plants in Developing Asia to changes in climate and water resources

Wang, Yaoping; Byers, Edward; Parkinson, Simon; Wanders, Niko; Wada, Yoshihide; Mao, Jiafu; Bielicki, Jeffrey M.

doi:10.1039/c9ee02058f

Vulnerability of existing and planned coal-fired power plants in Developing Asia to changes in climate and water resources

Journal Article · Fri Sep 20 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Energy & Environmental Science

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1039/c9ee02058f· OSTI ID:1648863

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The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States); International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Inst. for a Secure and Sustainable Environment
International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria)
International Inst. for Applied Systems Analysis, Laxenburg (Austria); Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
Univ. of Utrecht (Netherlands)
Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
The Ohio State Univ., Columbus, OH (United States)

Coal power generation dominates electricity supply in Developing Asia, and more than 400 gigawatts (GW) of new coal-fired capacity is planned for operation by 2030. Past studies on thermal electricity-water nexus have not accounted for this new capacity, and use coarse spatial and temporal resolutions in the assessment of long-term power system reliability. Here, high-resolution hydro-climatic simulations and asset-level power plant water use models are integrated to quantify water constraints on coal-fired power plants in Developing Asia, for different scenarios of future climate change, cooling system choice, and capacity expansion. Future climate change and capacity expansion decrease the annual usable capacity factor (UF) of coal power generation in Mongolia, Southeast Asia, and parts of India and China. The negative impacts are lessened by widening the geographic areas of aggregation. Under near-term mitigation scenarios with high penetrations of CO₂ capture technology, the regional average water withdrawal intensity of coal power generation is 50–80% higher than current conditions. With careful siting, the increased water withdrawal intensity does not necessarily constrain future electricity production on annual or monthly time scales, but decreases system reliability by increasing the probability of low UF at daily time scale. Our findings highlight the unaccounted-for-risk in Developing Asia's long-term power plan featuring coal power generation. Regional capacity expansion should consider the reliability of future thermal power assets under long-term hydroclimate change using high-resolution models and multiple scenarios.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis; National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1648863

Journal Information:: Energy & Environmental Science, Journal Name: Energy & Environmental Science Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 12; ISSN 1754-5692

Publisher:: Royal Society of ChemistryCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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