An Externally Forced Decadal Rainfall Seesaw Pattern Over the Sahel and Southeast Amazon

Hua, Wenjian; Dai, Aiguo; Zhou, Liming; Qin, Minhua; Chen, Haishan

doi:10.1029/2018GL081406

An Externally Forced Decadal Rainfall Seesaw Pattern Over the Sahel and Southeast Amazon

Journal Article · Fri Jan 25 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL081406· OSTI ID:1632999

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Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China, Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany, State University of New York Albany NY USA
Department of Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences University at Albany, State University of New York Albany NY USA
Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education (KLME)/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change (ILCEC)/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters (CIC‐FEMD) Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology Nanjing China

Abstract

By analyzing observations and model simulations, here we show that there exists a significant anticorrelation on interannual to multidecadal time scales between the Sahel and southeast Amazon rainfall during July‐August‐September. This rainfall seesaw, which is strongest on decadal to multidecadal scales, is due to an anomalous meridional gradient of sea surface temperatures across the tropical Atlantic that pushes the Intertropical Convergence Zone and its associated rain belt toward the anomalously warm hemisphere. Large ensemble model simulations suggest that the seesaw pattern is likely caused by decadal changes in anthropogenic and volcanic aerosols, rather than internal climate variability. Our results suggest that the recent decadal to multidecadal climate variations in and around the North Atlantic basin are largely externally forced and that projected large North Atlantic warming could lead to a wetter Sahel but drier Amazon in the future.

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Research Organization:: State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Key R&D Program of China; National Natural Science Foundation of China (NNSFC); National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA); National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE; USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012602

OSTI ID:: 1632999

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1611897
OSTI ID: 1492455

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 46; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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An Externally Forced Decadal Rainfall Seesaw Pattern Over the Sahel and Southeast Amazon

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