DEVELOPMENT OF ENSEMBLE-BASED PROBABILISTIC FLOOD MAPS FOR PROBABLE MAXIMUM FLOOD

Other · Mon Sep 24 04:00:00 EDT 2018

OSTI ID:1630932

Gangrade, Sudershan ^[1]

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1. Hydro Research Foundation

The magnitude and frequency of hydro-meteorological extremes are expected to increase in a changing environment that threaten the security of US energy-water assets. This includes probable maximum precipitation (PMP) and probable maximum flood (PMF) which are used as hydraulic design standards for critical infrastructures such as major hydropower reservoirs and nuclear power plants. To assess the potential flood hazards due to PMP/PMF, an integrated high resolution process-based hydro-meteorologic modeling framework was utilized to develop ensemble-based probabilistic flood maps based on best-available historic observations and future climate projections. A graphical process unit accelerated 2-dimensional hydrodynamic model was used to simulate the surface inundation areas corresponding to a total of PMF hydrographs. These ensemble-based PMF maps were compared with flood maps obtained from the conventional deterministic PMP/PMF approach, revealing added information of conditional probability of flooding. Further, a relative sensitivity test was conducted to explore the effects of various factors in the framework such as meteorological forcings, antecedent hydrologic conditions, reservoir storage, and flood model input resolution and parameters. The proposed framework better illustrates the uncertainties associated with model inputs, parameterization and hydro-meteorological factors allowing more informed decision-making for future emergency preparation.

• Research Organization: Hydro Research Foundation
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Water Power Technologies Office (EE-4WP)
• DOE Contract Number: EE0006506
• OSTI ID: 1630932
• Report Number(s): DOE-HRF-6506
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

13 HYDRO ENERGY