Implementation of hybrid short-term load forecasting system using artificial neural networks and fuzzy expert systems

Journal Article · Tue Aug 01 04:00:00 EDT 1995 · IEEE Transactions on Power Systems

OSTI ID:163053

Kim, K H ^[1]; Park, J K ^[2]; Hwang, K J ^[3]; Kim, S H ^[4]

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1. Kangwon National Univ. (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Electrical Engineering
2. Seoul National Univ. (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Electrical Engineering
3. Univ. of Ulsan (Korea, Republic of). Dept. of Electrical Engineering
4. Korea Electric Power Co., Seoul (Korea, Republic of). Power System Control Dept.

In this paper, a hybrid model for short-term load forecast that integrates artificial neural networks and fuzzy expert systems is presented. The forecasted load is obtained by passing through two steps. In the first procedure, the artificial neural networks are trained with the load patterns corresponding to the forecasting hour, and the provisional forecasted load is obtained by the trained artificial neural networks. In the second procedure, the fuzzy expert systems modify the provisional forecasted load considering the possibility of load variation due to changes in temperature and the load behavior of holiday. In the test case of 1994 for implementation in short term load forecasting expert system of Korea Electric Power Corporation (KEPCO), the proposed hybrid model provided good forecasting accuracy of the mean absolute percentage errors below 1.3%. The comparison results with exponential smoothing method showed the efficiency and accuracy of the hybrid model.

• OSTI ID: 163053
• Report Number(s): CONF-950103--
• Journal Information: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems, Journal Name: IEEE Transactions on Power Systems Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 10; ISSN ITPSEG; ISSN 0885-8950
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY
EXPERT SYSTEMS
FORECASTING
FUZZY LOGIC
NEURAL NETWORKS
POWER DEMAND