Atomic Bomb Survivors Life-Span Study: Insufficient Statistical Power to Select Radiation Carcinogenesis Model
- Falcon Analytics, Karney Shomron (Israel); DOE/OSTI
- National Center for Nuclear Research, Swierk (Poland)
The atomic bomb survivors life-span study (LSS) is often claimed to support the linear no-threshold hypothesis (LNTH) of radiation carcinogenesis. This paper shows that this claim is baseless. The LSS data are equally or better described by an s-shaped dependence on radiation exposure with a threshold of about 0.3 Sievert (Sv) and saturation level at about 1.5 Sv. A Monte-Carlo simulation of possible LSS outcomes demonstrates that, given the weak statistical power, LSS cannot provide support for LNTH. Even if the LNTH is used at low dose and dose rates, its estimation of excess cancer mortality should be communicated as 2.5% per Sv, i.e., an increase of cancer mortality from about 20% spontaneous mortality to about 22.5% per Sv, which is about half of the usually cited value. The impact of the “neutron discrepancy problem” – the apparent difference between the calculated and measured values of neutron flux in Hiroshima – was studied and found to be marginal. Major revision of the radiation risk assessment paradigm is required.
- Research Organization:
- National Academy of Sciences, Washington, DC (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE Office of Environment, Health, Safety and Security (AU)
- Grant/Contract Number:
- HS0000031
- OSTI ID:
- 1628015
- Journal Information:
- Dose-Response, Journal Name: Dose-Response Journal Issue: -1 Vol. 1; ISSN 1559-3258; ISSN HORMDR
- Publisher:
- International Hormesis SocietyCopyright Statement
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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