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Title: ELPIS-JP: a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan

Journal Article · · Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences
 [1];  [2];  [1];  [1];  [1]
  1. National Inst. for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Tsukuba (Japan). Agro-Meteorology Division
  2. Rothamsted Research, Harpenden (United Kingdom). Centre for Mathematical and Computational Biology
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We developed a dataset of local-scale daily climate change scenarios for Japan (called ELPIS-JP) using the stochastic weather generators (WGs) LARS-WG and, in part, WXGEN. The ELPIS-JP dataset is based on the observed (or estimated) daily weather data for seven climatic variables (daily mean, maximum and minimum temperatures; precipitation; solar radiation; relative humidity; and wind speed) at 938 sites in Japan and climate projections from the multi-model ensemble of global climate models (GCMs) used in the coupled model intercomparison project (CMIP3) and multi-model ensemble of regional climate models form the Japanese downscaling project (called S-5-3). The capability of the WGs to reproduce the statistical features of the observed data for the period 1981–2000 is assessed using several statistical tests and quantile–quantile plots. Overall performance of the WGs was good. The ELPIS-JP dataset consists of two types of daily data: (i) the transient scenarios throughout the twenty-first century using projections from 10 CMIP3 GCMs under three emission scenarios (A1B, A2 and B1) and (ii) the time-slice scenarios for the period 2081–2100 using projections from three S-5- 3 regional climate models. The ELPIS-JP dataset is designed to be used in conjunction with process-based impact models (e.g. crop models) for assessment, not only the impacts of mean climate change but also the impacts of changes in climate variability, wet/dry spells and extreme events, as well as the uncertainty of future impacts associated with climate models and emission scenarios. The ELPIS-JP offers an excellent platform for probabilistic assessment of climate change impacts and potential adaptation at a local scale in Japan.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Earth and Environmental Systems Science Division
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-07NA27344
OSTI ID:
1625597
Journal Information:
Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society. A, Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 370, Issue 1962; ISSN 1364-503X
Publisher:
The Royal Society PublishingCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (1)

Validation of ELPIS 1980-2010 baseline scenarios using the observed European Climate Assessment data set journal June 2013

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
science &amp; technology
ELPIS-JP
stochastic weather generator
LARS-WG
climate change
impact assessment
Japan