skip to main content
OSTI.GOV title logo U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information

Title: Uncertainty analysis of vegetation distribution in the northern high latitudes during the 21st century with a dynamic vegetation model: Uncertainty Analysis of Vegetation Distribution

Journal Article · · Ecology and Evolution
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.85· OSTI ID:1623553
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [6]
  1. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences
  2. Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States). Dept. of Earth and Atmospheric Sciences. Dept. of Agronomy
  3. Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Potsdam (Germany)
  4. The Met Office Hadley Centre, Wllingford, OX (United Kingdom)
  5. Massachusetts Inst. of Technology (MIT), Cambridge, MA (United States). Dept. of Earth, Atmospheric and Planetary Sciences
  6. Marine Biological Laboratory, Woods Hole, MA (United States). The Ecosystems Center
+ Show Author Affiliations

This study aims to assess how high-latitude vegetation may respond under various climate scenarios during the 21st century with a focus on analyzing model parameters induced uncertainty and how this uncertainty compares to the uncertainty induced by various climates. The analysis was based on a set of 10,000 Monte Carlo ensemble Lund-Potsdam-Jena (LPJ) simulations for the northern high latitudes (45oN and polewards) for the period 1900–2100. The LPJ Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ-DGVM) was run under contemporary and future climates from four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES), A1FI, A2, B1, and B2, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and six climate scenarios, X901M, X902L, X903H, X904M, X905L, and X906H from the Integrated Global System Model (IGSM) at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). In the current dynamic vegetation model, some parameters are more important than others in determining the vegetation distribution. Parameters that control plant carbon uptake and light-use efficiency have the predominant influence on the vegetation distribution of both woody and herbaceous plant functional types. The relative importance of different parameters varies temporally and spatially and is influenced by climate inputs. In addition to climate, these parameters play an important role in determining the vegetation distribution in the region. The parameter-based uncertainties contribute most to the total uncertainty. The current warming conditions lead to a complexity of vegetation responses in the region. Temperate trees will be more sensitive to climate variability, compared with boreal forest trees and C3 perennial grasses. This sensitivity would result in a unanimous northward greenness migration due to anomalous warming in the northern high latitudes. Temporally, boreal needleleaved evergreen plants are projected to decline considerably, and a large portion of C3 perennial grass is projected to disappear by the end of the 21st century. In contrast, the area of temperate trees would increase, especially under the most extreme A1FI scenario. As the warming continues, the northward greenness expansion in the Arctic region could continue.

Research Organization:
Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, IN (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
FG02-08ER64599
OSTI ID:
1623553
Journal Information:
Ecology and Evolution, Vol. 2, Issue 3; ISSN 2045-7758
Publisher:
WileyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (83)

How Does Climate Change Affect Biodiversity? journal September 2006
Ensemble forecasting of species distributions journal January 2007
Simulating the response of natural ecosystems and their fire regimes to climatic variability in Alaska journal September 2005
Simulating past and future dynamics of natural ecosystems in the United States: DYNAMICS OF NATURAL ECOSYSTEMS journal May 2003
Surface energy exchanges along a tundra-forest transition and feedbacks to climate journal August 2005
Offset of the potential carbon sink from boreal forestation by decreases in surface albedo journal November 2000
A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics journal November 2003
Quantifying the negative feedback of vegetation to greenhouse warming: A modeling approach: NEGATIVE VEGETATION FEEDBACK TO CLIMATE journal December 2010
Effects of Changes in Climate on Landscape and Regional Processes, and Feedbacks to the Climate System journal November 2004
Arctic and boreal ecosystems of western North America as components of the climate system journal December 2000
Role of Land-Surface Changes in Arctic Summer Warming journal October 2005
The relationship between the Rubisco reaction mechanism and models of photosynthesis* journal April 1990
Amazonian forest dieback under climate-carbon cycle projections for the 21st century journal April 2004
Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO 2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models journal April 2001
Patterns as indicators of productivity enhancement by facilitation and competition in dryland vegetation journal January 2006
Global Allocation Rules for Patterns of Biomass Partitioning in Seed Plants journal February 2002
Energy feedbacks of northern high-latitude ecosystems to the climate system due to reduced snow cover during 20th century warming journal November 2007
Importance of recent shifts in soil thermal dynamics on growing season length, productivity, and carbon sequestration in terrestrial high-latitude ecosystems journal April 2006
Changes in vegetation in northern Alaska under scenarios of climate change, 2003–2100: implications for climate feedbacks journal June 2009
A biochemical model of photosynthetic CO2 assimilation in leaves of C3 species journal June 1980
Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest journal March 2009
Constraining climate model parameters from observed 20th century changes journal January 2008
Sensitivity of a dynamic global vegetation model to climate and atmospheric CO 2 journal August 2004
Terrestrial vegetation and water balance—hydrological evaluation of a dynamic global vegetation model journal January 2004
The effect of past changes in inter-annual temperature variability on tree distribution limits: Inter-annual temperature variability and tree distribution limits journal April 2010
The uncertainty in simulations by a Global Biome Model (BIOME3) to alternative parameter values: SENSITIVITY OF A GLOBAL BIOME MODEL journal June 2000
A General Model for the Light-Use Efficiency of Primary Production journal October 1996
Comparison of nonlinear height–diameter functions for major Alberta tree species journal September 1992
An Investigation of Uncertainty and Sensitivity Analysis Techniques for Computer Models journal March 1988
Characterization of wildfire regimes in Canadian boreal terrestrial ecosystems journal January 2009
Extreme value analysis of wildfires in Canadian boreal forest ecosystems journal September 2011
The second Hadley Centre coupled ocean-atmosphere GCM: model description, spinup and validation journal February 1997
Permafrost Degradation and Ecological Changes Associated with a WarmingClimate in Central Alaska journal March 2001
Assimilating atmospheric data into a terrestrial biosphere model: A case study of the seasonal cycle: ASSIMILATING CO journal October 2002
Recent changes in the fire regime across the North American boreal region—Spatial and temporal patterns of burning across Canada and Alaska journal January 2006
Analysis of the patterns of large fires in the boreal forest region of Alaska journal January 2002
Response of Pinus sibirica and Larix sibirica to climate change in southern Siberian alpine forest–tundra ecotone journal April 2009
Modeling seasonal vegetation variation and its validation against Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) observations over North America journal January 2005
Long-term sensitivity of soil carbon turnover to warming journal January 2005
Spatial Heterogeneity in the Shrub Tundra Ecotone in the Mackenzie Delta Region, Northwest Territories: Implications for Arctic Environmental Change journal January 2010
Physiological Plant Ecology book January 2003
Nitrogen Limitation of net Primary Productivity in Terrestrial Ecosystems is Globally Distributed journal February 2008
The effects of illumination sequence, CO2 concentration, temperature and acclimation on the convexity of the photosynthetic light response curve journal October 1988
Spatial and Temporal Variability in the Growth and Climate Response of Treeline Trees in Alaska journal January 2002
Terrestrial vegetation redistribution and carbon balance under climate change journal July 2006
A methodology for performing global uncertainty and sensitivity analysis in systems biology journal September 2008
Responses of High Latitude Ecosystems to Global Change: Potential Consequences for the Climate System book January 2007
Climate response to increasing levels of greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols journal August 1995
An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate observations and associated high-resolution grids journal January 2005
Forecasting Regional to Global Plant Migration in Response to Climate Change journal January 2005
Potentially complex biosphere responses to transient global warming journal June 1998
A high-resolution data set of surface climate over global land areas journal January 2002
Observations of Thermokarst and Its Impact on Boreal Forests in Alaska, U.S.A. journal August 2000
Integrated Analysis of Physical and Biological Pan-Arctic Change journal April 2004
Special Paper: A Global Biome Model Based on Plant Physiology and Dominance, Soil Properties and Climate journal March 1992
Two decades of terrestrial carbon fluxes from a carbon cycle data assimilation system (CCDAS): CARBON FLUXES FROM DATA ASSIMILATION SYSTEM journal June 2005
Eco-geomorphology of banded vegetation patterns in arid and semi-arid regions journal January 2007
Making best use of model evaluations to compute sensitivity indices journal May 2002
Terrestrial biosphere carbon storage under alternative climate projections journal January 2006
A climate-change risk analysis for world ecosystems journal August 2006
Evaluating the sensitivity of Eurasian forest biomass to climate change using a dynamic vegetation model journal October 2009
Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model journal February 2003
Impacts of future land cover changes on atmospheric CO 2 and climate : CLIMATE IMPACTS OF FUTURE LAND USE journal April 2005
Representation of vegetation dynamics in the modelling of terrestrial ecosystems: comparing two contrasting approaches within European climate space journal November 2001
Trends in high northern latitude soil freeze and thaw cycles from 1988 to 2002 journal January 2004
Climate-induced boreal forest change: Predictions versus current observations journal April 2007
Probabilistic Forecast for Twenty-First-Century Climate Based on Uncertainties in Emissions (Without Policy) and Climate Parameters journal October 2009
Growth indices ? Their r�le in understanding the growth, structure and distribution of Australian vegetation journal September 1981
Earlier spring snowmelt in northern Alaska as an indicator of climate change: EARLY SNOWMELT AS AN INDICATOR OF CLIMATE CHANGE journal May 2002
Remote sensing of vegetation and land-cover change in Arctic Tundra Ecosystems journal February 2004
A global sensitivity analysis and Bayesian inference framework for improving the parameter estimation and prediction of a process-based Terrestrial Ecosystem Model journal January 2009
The evidence for shrub expansion in Northern Alaska and the Pan-Arctic journal April 2006
The effects of climate, permafrost and fire on vegetation change in Siberia in a changing climate journal October 2009
Structural complexity and land‐surface energy exchange along a gradient from arctic tundra to boreal forest journal February 2004
Vegetation-infiltration relationships across climatic and soil type gradients: VEGETATION-INFILTRATION RELATIONSHIPS journal June 2010
A global sensitivity analysis tool for the parameters of multi-variable catchment models journal June 2006
From The Cover: Plant community responses to experimental warming across the tundra biome journal January 2006
Modeling distribution changes of vegetation in China under future climate change journal December 2005
Seasonal Partitioning of Evaporation Between Trees and Understorey in a Widely Spaced Pinus radiata Stand journal August 1994
Recent climate warming forces contrasting growth responses of white spruce at treeline in Alaska through temperature thresholds journal October 2004
Future changes in vegetation and ecosystem function of the Barents Region journal December 2007
Effects of parameter uncertainties on the modeling of terrestrial biosphere dynamics: PARAMETER-BASED UNCERTAINTY OF A DGVM journal September 2005
Carbon cycling in extratropical terrestrial ecosystems of the Northern Hemisphere during the 20th century: a modeling analysis of the influences of soil thermal dynamics journal July 2003

Cited By (7)

Tree-species range shifts in a changing climate: detecting, modeling, assisting journal April 2013
Increases in heat-induced tree mortality could drive reductions of biomass resources in Canada’s managed boreal forest journal February 2019
Modeling the Vegetation Dynamics of Northern Shrubs and Mosses in the ORCHIDEE Land Surface Model journal July 2019
Plant functional types in Earth system models: past experiences and future directions for application of dynamic vegetation models in high-latitude ecosystems journal May 2014
Northern Eurasia Future Initiative (NEFI): facing the challenges and pathways of global change in the twenty-first century journal December 2017
Biogeophysical feedbacks enhance the Arctic terrestrial carbon sink in regional Earth system dynamics journal January 2014
Simulated annual changes in plant functional types and their responses to climate change on the northern Tibetan Plateau journal January 2016

Similar Records

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Environmental Sciences & Ecology
Evolutionary Biology