Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

Bewick, Sharon; Stuble, Katharine L.; Lessard, Jean-Phillipe; Dunn, Robert R.; Adler, Frederick R.; Sanders, Nathan J.

doi:10.1002/ece3.1048

Predicting future coexistence in a North American ant community

Journal Article · Wed Apr 16 00:00:00 EDT 2014 · Ecology and Evolution

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/ece3.1048· OSTI ID:1623529

Bewick, Sharon ^[1]; Stuble, Katharine L. ^[2]; Lessard, Jean-Phillipe ^[3]; Dunn, Robert R. ^[4]; Adler, Frederick R. ^[5]; Sanders, Nathan J. ^[6]

Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). National Inst. for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis; DOE/OSTI
Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology
Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark). Natural History Museum of Denmark. Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate; McGill Univ., Montreal, QC (Canada). Dept. of Biology. Quebec Centre for Biodiversity Science
North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Biological Sciences
Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). Dept. of Mathematics; Univ. of Utah, Salt Lake City, UT (United States). Dept. of Biology
Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States). Dept. of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology; Univ. of Copenhagen (Denmark). Natural History Museum of Denmark. Center for Macroecology, Evolution and Climate

Global climate change will remodel ecological communities worldwide. However, as a consequence of biotic interactions, communities may respond to climate change in idiosyncratic ways. This makes predictive models that incorporate biotic interactions necessary. We show how such models can be constructed based on empirical studies in combination with predictions or assumptions regarding the abiotic consequences of climate change. Specifically, we consider a well-studied ant community in North America. First, we use historical data to parameterize a basic model for species coexistence. Using this model, we determine the importance of various factors, including thermal niches, food discovery rates, and food removal rates, to historical species coexistence. We then extend the model to predict how the community will restructure in response to several climate-related changes, such as increased temperature, shifts in species phenology, and altered resource availability. Interestingly, our mechanistic model suggests that increased temperature and shifts in species phenology can have contrasting effects. Nevertheless, for almost all scenarios considered, we find that the most subordinate ant species suffers most as a result of climate change. More generally, our analysis shows that community composition can respond to climate warming in nonintuitive ways. For example, in the context of a community, it is not necessarily the most heatsensitive species that are most at risk. Our results demonstrate how models that account for niche partitioning and interspecific trade-offs among species can be used to predict the likely idiosyncratic responses of local communities to climate change.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER). Biological Systems Science Division

Grant/Contract Number:: FG02-08ER64510

OSTI ID:: 1623529

Journal Information:: Ecology and Evolution, Journal Name: Ecology and Evolution Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 4; ISSN 2045-7758

Publisher:: WileyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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