Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Notz, Dirk; Community, SIMIP

doi:10.1029/2019GL086749

Arctic Sea Ice in CMIP6

Journal Article · Thu May 14 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL086749· OSTI ID:1618526

Notz, Dirk ^[1];

Max‐Planck‐Gesellschaft zur Förderung der Wissenschaften e.V. Munich Germany

Abstract

We examine CMIP6 simulations of Arctic sea‐ice area and volume. We find that CMIP6 models produce a wide spread of mean Arctic sea‐ice area, capturing the observational estimate within the multimodel ensemble spread. The CMIP6 multimodel ensemble mean provides a more realistic estimate of the sensitivity of September Arctic sea‐ice area to a given amount of anthropogenic CO ₂ emissions and to a given amount of global warming, compared with earlier CMIP experiments. Still, most CMIP6 models fail to simulate at the same time a plausible evolution of sea‐ice area and of global mean surface temperature. In the vast majority of the available CMIP6 simulations, the Arctic Ocean becomes practically sea‐ice free (sea‐ice area <1 × 10 ⁶ km ² ) in September for the first time before the Year 2050 in each of the four emission scenarios SSP1‐1.9, SSP1‐2.6, SSP2‐4.5, and SSP5‐8.5 examined here.

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Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE

OSTI ID:: 1618526

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1618527

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 10 Vol. 47; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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