Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Montgomery, Rebecca A.; Rice, Karen E.; Stefanski, Artur; Rich, Roy L.; Reich, Peter B.

doi:10.1073/pnas.1917508117

Title: Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

Journal Article · Mon Apr 27 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1917508117· OSTI ID:1616324

Montgomery, Rebecca A. ^[1]; Rice, Karen E. ^[2]; Stefanski, Artur ^[1]; Rich, Roy L. ^[3];

^[4]

Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108,
Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108,, Extension Education, University of Florida, Fort Lauderdale, FL 33314,
Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108,, Smithsonian Environmental Research Center, Edgewater, MD 21037,
Department of Forest Resources, University of Minnesota, St. Paul, MN 55108,, Hawkesbury Institute for the Environment, Western Sydney University, Penrith NSW 2753, Australia

Changes in plant phenology associated with climate change have been observed globally. What is poorly known is whether and how phenological responses to climate warming will differ from year to year, season to season, habitat to habitat, or species to species. Here, we present 5 y of phenological responses to experimental warming for 10 subboreal tree species. Research took place in the open-air B4WarmED experiment in Minnesota. The design is a two habitat (understory and open) × three warming treatments (ambient, +1.7 °C, +3.4 °C) factorial at two sites. Phenology was measured twice weekly during the growing seasons of 2009 through 2013. We found significant interannual variation in the effect of warming and differences among species in response to warming that relate to geographic origin and plant functional group. Moreover, responses to experimental temperature variation were similar to responses to natural temperature variation. Warming advanced the date of budburst more in early compared to late springs, suggesting that to simulate interannual variability in climate sensitivity of phenology, models should employ process-based or continuous development approaches. Differences among species in timing of budburst were also greater in early compared to late springs. Our results suggest that climate change—which will make most springs relatively “early”—could lead to a future with more variable phenology among years and among species, with consequences including greater risk of inappropriately early leafing and altered interactions among species.

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Research Organization:: Univ. of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER)

Grant/Contract Number:: FG02-07ER64456; MN-42-060; MN-42-030

OSTI ID:: 1616324

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1800544

Journal Information:: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, Journal Name: Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America Vol. 117 Journal Issue: 19; ISSN 0027-8424

Publisher:: Proceedings of the National Academy of SciencesCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 54 works

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59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES
Science & Technology
climate change
phenology
growing season length
boreal forest
temperate forest

Title: Phenological responses of temperate and boreal trees to warming depend on ambient spring temperatures, leaf habit, and geographic range

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