The Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP): Quantifying Uncertainties in Atmospheric River Climatology

Journal Article · Fri Dec 27 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JD030936· OSTI ID:1615338

Rutz, Jonathan J. ^[1]; Shields, Christine A. ^[2]; Lora, Juan M. ^[3]; Payne, Ashley E. ^[4]; Guan, Bin ^[3]; Ullrich, Paul ^[5]; O'Brien, Travis ^[6]; Leung, Lai-Yung  ^[7]; Ralph, Martin ^[8]; Wehner, Michael F. ^[6]; Brands, Swen ^[9]; Collow, Allison ^[10]; Goldenson, Naomi L. ^[11]; Gorodetskaya, Irina ^[12]; Griffith, Helen ^[13]; Kashinath, Karthik ^[14]; Kawzenuk, Brian ^[15]; Krishnan, Hari ^[16]; Kurlin, Vitaliy ^[17]; Lavers, David ^[18] ; Magnusdottir, Gudrun ^[19]; Mahoney, Kelly ^[1]; Mcclenny, Elizabeth ^[5]; Muszynski, Grzegorz ^[6]; Nguyen, Phu ^[19]; Prabhat, Mr. ^[16]; Qian, Yun  ^[7]; Ramos, Alexandre M. ^[20]; Sarangi, Chandan N. ^[7]; Sellars, Scott ^[15]; Shulgina, Tamara ^[8]; Tome, Ricardo ^[20]; Waliser, D ^[21]; Walton, Daniel ^[3]; Wick, Gary ^[1]; Wilson, Anna ^[15]; Viale, Maximiliano ^[22]

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1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
2. National Center for Atmospheric Research
3. University of California, Los Angeles
4. University of Michigan
5. University of California, Davis
6. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory
7. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
8. University of California, San Diego
9. MeteoGalicia–Xunta de Galicia, Santiago de Compostela, Spain
10. Universities Space Research Association
11. UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON
12. University of Aveiro, Portugal
13. Department of Geography and Environmental Science, University of Reading, Reading, UK
14. National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)
15. Scripps Institution of Oceanography
16. LBNL
17. Department Computer Science Liverpool
18. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading
19. University of California, Irvine
20. Universidade de Lisboa, Portugal
21. Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology
22. Instituto Argentino de Nivologia, Glaciologia y Ciencias Ambientales, CCT-CONICET, Mendoza, Argentin

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are now widely known for their association with high-impact weather events and long-term water supply in many regions. Researchers within the scientific community have developed numerous methods to identify and track of ARs—a necessary step for analyses on gridded data sets, and objective attribution of impacts to ARs. These different methods have been developed to answer specific research questions and hence use different criteria (e.g., geometry, threshold values of key variables, and time dependence). Furthermore, these methods are often employed using different reanalysis data sets, time periods, and regions of interest. The goal of the Atmospheric River Tracking Method Intercomparison Project (ARTMIP) is to understand and quantify uncertainties in AR science that arise due to differences in these methods. This paper presents results for key AR-related metrics based on 20+ different AR identification and tracking methods applied to Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 reanalysis data from January 1980 through June 2017. We show that AR frequency, duration, and seasonality exhibit a wide range of results, while the meridional distribution of these metrics along selected coastal (but not interior) transects are quite similar across methods. Furthermore, methods are grouped into criteria-based clusters, within which the range of results is reduced. AR case studies and an evaluation of individual method deviation from an all-method mean highlight advantages/disadvantages of certain approaches. For example, methods with less (more) restrictive criteria identify more (less) ARs and AR-related impacts. Finally, this paper concludes with a discussion and recommendations for those conducting AR-related research to consider.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1615338
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-150854
• Journal Information: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 24
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English