Skip to main content
OSTI.GOVU.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
 

The Polar Stratosphere as an Arbiter of the Projected Tropical Versus Polar Tug of War

Journal Article · · Geophysical Research Letters
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082463· OSTI ID:1613224
 [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States); DOE/OSTI
  2. Univ. de Toulouse (France)
  3. Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
+ Show Author Affiliations
This study explores the “tug of war” between the effects of Arctic amplification (“AA”) and upper-troposphere tropical warming (“UTW”) on the response of the future North Atlantic atmospheric circulation. The late 21st century AA and UTW temperature anomalies are imposed in a high-top atmospheric model by nudging the temperature. Two sets of experiments are performed, with and without feedback of the polar stratosphere to highlight its role in the response to UTW, AA, and both combined. With interactive polar stratosphere, UTW forces an equatorward shift of the eddy-driven jet that reinforces the response to AA. However, when the polar stratosphere feedback is suppressed, the response to UTW is opposite and reflects the previously identified tug of war between the effects of UTW and AA in midlatitudes. This study highlights that the polar stratosphere is a key component for future changes in the North Atlantic atmospheric circulation and that it must be accurately represented in climate change scenarios.
Research Organization:
Univ. of California, Irvine, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0019407
OSTI ID:
1613224
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1557000
Journal Information:
Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 15 Vol. 46; ISSN 0094-8276
Publisher:
American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (50)

Northern winter climate change: Assessment of uncertainty in CMIP5 projections related to stratosphere-troposphere coupling: STRATOSPHERE-TROPOSPHERE CLIMATE CHANGE journal July 2014
The Specified Chemistry Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SC-WACCM) journal August 2014
Sinuosity of midlatitude atmospheric flow in a warming world: SINUOSITY OF MIDLATITUDE FLOW journal August 2016
Remarkable separability of circulation response to Arctic sea ice loss and greenhouse gas forcing: SEPARABILITY OF SEA ICE LOSS AND GHGs journal August 2017
Multimodel Evidence for an Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the CMIP5 Future Projections journal January 2018
A critical comparison of stratosphere-troposphere coupling indices journal October 2009
Equator-to-pole temperature differences and the extra-tropical storm track responses of the CMIP5 climate models journal July 2013
Respective roles of direct GHG radiative forcing and induced Arctic sea ice loss on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation journal February 2017
Global analyses of sea surface temperature, sea ice, and night marine air temperature since the late nineteenth century journal January 2003
Expansion of the Hadley cell under global warming journal January 2007
Evidence linking Arctic amplification to extreme weather in mid-latitudes: ARCTIC LINKS TO MID-LATITUDE WEATHER journal March 2012
Ural Blocking as a Driver of Early‐Winter Stratospheric Warmings journal May 2019
Recent Arctic amplification and extreme mid-latitude weather journal August 2014
Robust Arctic sea-ice influence on the frequent Eurasian cold winters in past decades journal October 2014
Stratospheric influence on tropospheric jet streams, storm tracks and surface weather journal May 2015
Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change journal August 2016
Polar amplification dominated by local forcing and feedbacks journal November 2018
Consistency and discrepancy in the atmospheric response to Arctic sea-ice loss across climate models journal February 2018
Coherent response of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall to Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability over the last 2000 years journal January 2020
Projected squeezing of the wintertime North-Atlantic jet journal July 2018
A stratospheric pathway linking a colder Siberia to Barents-Kara Sea sea ice loss journal July 2018
On the Three-Dimensional Propagation of Stationary Waves journal February 1985
Toward a Physically Based Gravity Wave Source Parameterization in a General Circulation Model journal January 2010
The Steady-State Atmospheric Circulation Response to Climate Change–like Thermal Forcings in a Simple General Circulation Model journal July 2010
An Overview of CMIP5 and the Experiment Design journal April 2012
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability journal August 2015
The Downward Influence of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings* journal October 2014
Abrupt Circulation Responses to Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Warming in a Relatively Simple Stratosphere-Resolving AGCM journal June 2012
Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models journal September 2013
The Role of Ocean–Atmosphere Coupling in the Zonal-Mean Atmospheric Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss journal March 2015
CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship journal July 2015
Observed Atmospheric Coupling between Barents Sea Ice and the Warm-Arctic Cold-Siberian Anomaly Pattern journal January 2016
The Role of Ocean Heat Transport in the Global Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea Ice Loss journal October 2016
Isolating the Atmospheric Circulation Response to Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Coupled Climate System journal March 2017
Comparing Tropospheric Warming in Climate Models and Satellite Data journal January 2017
Late Twenty-First-Century Changes in the Midlatitude Atmospheric Circulation in the CESM Large Ensemble journal August 2017
Changes in North American Atmospheric Circulation and Extreme Weather: Influence of Arctic Amplification and Northern Hemisphere Snow Cover journal June 2017
Storylines of Atmospheric Circulation Change for European Regional Climate Impact Assessment journal August 2017
The Downward Influence of Uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Response to Climate Change journal August 2018
A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part I: Climatology and Modeling Benchmarks journal February 2007
The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification journal January 2009
The Downward Influence of Uncertainty in the Northern Hemisphere Stratospheric Polar Vortex Response to Climate Change text January 2018
The Downward Influence of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings text January 2014
A New Look at Stratospheric Sudden Warmings. Part I: Climatology and Modeling Benchmarks text January 2007
The Specified Chemistry Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (SC-WACCM) text January 2014
Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models text January 2013
Abrupt Circulation Responses to Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Warming in a Relatively Simple Stratosphere-Resolving AGCM text January 2012
The Downward Influence of Stratospheric Sudden Warmings text January 2014
CMIP5 Projections of Arctic Amplification, of the North American/North Atlantic Circulation, and of Their Relationship text January 2015
A stratospheric pathway linking a colder Siberia to Barents-Kara Sea sea ice loss text January 2018

Figures / Tables (4)

Figure 1(p. 3)figure Figure 1
Figure 2(p. 5)figure Figure 2
Figure 3(p. 6)figure Figure 3
Figure 4(p. 7)figure Figure 4

Similar Records

Ural Blocking as a Driver of Early-Winter Stratospheric Warmings
Journal Article · Tue May 28 20:00:00 EDT 2019 · Geophysical Research Letters · OSTI ID:1613223

Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
Geology