Alaska Daily Extreme Precipitation Processes in a Subset of CMIP5 Global Climate Models

Smalley, Kevin M.; Glisan, Justin M.; Gutowski, William J.

doi:10.1029/2018jd028643

Title: Alaska Daily Extreme Precipitation Processes in a Subset of CMIP5 Global Climate Models

Journal Article · Mon Apr 08 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd028643· OSTI ID:1609951

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Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States); Texas A & M Univ., College Station, TX (United States)
Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

We analyze physical processes leading to daily wintertime (December, January, and February) extreme precipitation events in Alaska between 1986 and 2005. This is done by applying self-organizing maps to environmental conditions corresponding to National Centers for Environmental Information precipitation, using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts reanalysis (ERA-Interim) and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) global climate selected Global climate model (GCM; selected GCMs). We focus on widespread extreme events, defined as the top 0.1% of daily precipitation occurring on at least six grid boxes on the same day. The self-organizing maps methodology allows identifying large-scale circulations conducive to extreme events. This methodology identifies distinctive circulation patterns conducive to producing extreme events with a trough west of Alaska leading to south or southwest flow across the state. Extreme events occur along the windward (southern) side of the Alaska Range due to uplift by the mountains in the ERA-Interim and in all models. In the National Centers for Environmental Information observations, precipitation rates are greater than in any of the selected GCMs. Simulated extreme precipitation decreases as model resolution decreases, and our study suggests that the smoothness of model topography is a reason for the scaling between model precipitation rate and model resolution.

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Research Organization:: Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: FG02-07ER64463; SC0016438; ARC-1023369

OSTI ID:: 1609951

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1510104

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 124, Issue 8; ISSN 2169-897X

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 3 works

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Title: Alaska Daily Extreme Precipitation Processes in a Subset of CMIP5 Global Climate Models

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