High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Gettelman, A.; Hannay, C.; Bacmeister, J. T.; Neale, R. B.; Pendergrass, A. G.; Danabasoglu, G.; Lamarque, J.‐F.; Fasullo, J. T.; Bailey, D. A.; Lawrence, D. M.; Mills, M. J.

doi:10.1029/2019gl083978

High Climate Sensitivity in the Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2)

Journal Article · Tue Jul 16 00:00:00 EDT 2019 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl083978· OSTI ID:1609288

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National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); DOE/OSTI
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) has an equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) of 5.3 K. ECS is an emergent property of both climate feedbacks and aerosol forcing. The increase in ECS over the previous version (CESM1) is the result of cloud feedbacks. Interim versions of CESM2 had a land model that damped ECS. Part of the ECS change results from evolving the model configuration to reproduce the long-term trend of global and regional surface temperature over the twentieth century in response to climate forcings. Changes made to reduce sensitivity to aerosols also impacted cloud feedbacks, which significantly influence ECS. We report CESM2 simulations compare very well to observations of present climate. It is critical to understand whether the high ECS, outside the best estimate range of 1.5–4.5 K, is plausible.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: National Science Foundation (NSF); USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1609288

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Journal Issue: 14 Vol. 46; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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