China’s Booming Plug-in Electric Vehicle Market—How Will It Continue?

Book · Sun Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 2020

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-38382-4_11· OSTI ID:1609057

Ou, Shawn ^[1]; Lin, Zhenhong ^[1]; He, Xin ^[2]; Przesmitzki, Steven V. ^[2]; Wu, Zhixin ^[3]; Zheng, Jihu ^[3]; Lyu, Renzhi ^[3]; Qi, Liang ^[3]

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1. ORNL
2. Aramco Services Company
3. China Automotive Technology and Research Center, Tianjin China

The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is recognized as a pivotal component in transportation energy security and technology innovation in China. With government incentives and substantial capital investments, the Chinese PEV market has become one of the largest in the world. However, is this market boom ephemeral or will it be continuing? This chapter provides a general review of the Chinese PEV market mainly from the consumer per-spective, by summarizing the characteristics of the vehicle policies and consumer concerns in the PEV market in recent years. Moreover, it intro-duces detailed examples on how the policies, technologies, and infrastruc-ture shape the market. In addition to employing large amounts of reliable data from the China Automotive Technology and Research Center for the review, the authors also adopted a quantitative analysis tool—the New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits model—to project the potential in-dustrial impacts of the government policies in multiple scenarios. Based on the findings, it seems that the prosperity of the PEV market, incentivized by the government, will continue in the short run. The direct subsidies to PEV from the government will gradually phase out, and the supply-side push policies such as the dual-credit policy and other charging infrastruc-ture incentives will work as the invisible hand to force the automakers to invest more in the PEV segment. However, in the long run, innovation in PEV technology and business models, together with consumer acceptance will be the major factors that can sustain further market growth.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1609057
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English