Modeling charging infrastructure impact on the electric vehicle market in China

Journal Article · Thu Feb 20 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102248· OSTI ID:1606959

Ou, Shiqi (Shawn) ^[1]; Lin, Zhenhong ^[1]; He, Xin ^[2]; Przesmitzki, Steven V. ^[2]; Bouchard, Jessey ^[2]

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1. Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)
2. Aramco Services Company, Detroit, MI (United States). Aramco Research Center

The plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) is deemed as a critical technological revolution, and the governments are imposing various vehicle policies to promote its development. Meanwhile, the market success of PEVs depends on many aspects. The study reported herein integrates one’s use of charging infrastructure at home, public place and workplace into the market dynamics analysis tool, New Energy and Oil Consumption Credits (NEOCC) model, to systematically assess the charging infrastructure (home parking ratio, public charging opportunity, and charging costs) impact on PEV ownership costs and analyze how the PEV market shares may be affected by the attributes of the charging infrastructure. Compared to the charging infrastructure, the impact of battery costs is incontrovertibly decisive on PEV market shares, the charging infrastructure is still non-negligible in the PEV market dynamics. The simulation results find that the public charging infrastructure has more effectiveness on promoting the PEV sales in the PEV emerging market than it does in the PEV mature market. However, the improvement of charging infrastructure does not necessarily lead to a larger PEV market if the charging infrastructure incentives do not coordinate well with other PEV policies. Besides, the increase of public charging opportunities has limited motivations on the growth of public PEV fleets, which are highly correlated to the number of public fast charging stations or outlets. It also finds that more home parking spaces can stimulate more sales of personal plug-in hybrid electric vehicles instead of personal battery electric vehicles.

• Research Organization: Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). National Transportation Research Center (NTRC)
• Sponsoring Organization: Aramco Services Company; USDOE; USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE)
• Grant/Contract Number: AC05-00OR22725
• OSTI ID: 1606959
• Alternate ID(s): OSTI ID: 1780234
• Journal Information: Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment, Journal Name: Transportation Research. Part D, Transport and Environment Journal Issue: C Vol. 81; ISSN 1361-9209
• Publisher: Elsevier
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
Battery cost
Charging infrastructure
Electric vehicle market
Genetic algorithm
Industry profit