Mitigating energy demand sector emissions: The integrated modelling perspective

Journal Article · Sun Mar 01 04:00:00 EST 2020 · Applied Energy

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.114347· OSTI ID:1600025

Edelenbosch, Oreane Y. ^[1]; Van Vuuren, Detlef ^[2]; Blok, K ^[3]; Calvin, Katherine V. ^[4]; Fujimori, Shinichiro ^[5]

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1. PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
2. Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency
3. Universiteit Utrecht
4. BATTELLE (PACIFIC NW LAB)
5. NIES, Japan

Mitigating carbon emissions in the current energy system will require fundamental changes of both the energy supply and the energy demand sectors. Previous global model-based analyses, however, have focused mostly on energy supply transformations, while the energy demand sector changes are less well understood. In this study, this knowledge gap is addressed by analysing in detail the projected future energy demand projections, and the required demand-side changes to reach stringent mitigation targets using a suite of integrated assessment models. We examine industry, transport and buildings sector pathways across four models and three different reference scenarios from the Shared-Socioeconomic Pathway framework which is used as a set of common future perspectives by the climate research community. The demand side mitigation efforts are compared to a more detailed, sector-specific, technology-oriented assessments of abatement potential based on a literature review for the year 2030. The results indicate that strong emission growth in the industry and transport sector can be attributed to increasing final energy per capita and population growth. In the stringent mitigation scenarios energy efficiency, electrification and switching to low carbon fuel are all required in the short term. In the green growth SSP1 scenario the required emission reduction is significantly less than other scenarios showing that the demand growth and the technology development largely affects the sectors’ mitigation challenge. The technology assessment estimates that in particular in the transport and buildings sector there is a higher potential to reduce demand-side emissions through energy efficiency improvements than currently envisioned in the integrated assessment models.

• Research Organization: Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE
• DOE Contract Number: AC05-76RL01830
• OSTI ID: 1600025
• Report Number(s): PNNL-SA-146514
• Journal Information: Applied Energy, Journal Name: Applied Energy Vol. 261
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English