Characterizing NWP Model Errors Using Doppler-Lidar Measurements of Recurrent Regional Diurnal Flows: Marine-Air Intrusions into the Columbia River Basin

Journal Article · Sun Mar 01 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Monthly Weather Review

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-19-0188.1· OSTI ID:1598754

Banta, Robert M. ^[1]; Pichugina, Yelena L. ^[1]; Brewer, W. Alan ^[2]; Choukulkar, Aditya ^[1]; Lantz, Kathleen O. ^[1]; Olson, Joseph B. ^[1]; Kenyon, Jaymes ^[1]; Fernando, Harindra J. S. ^[3]; Krishnamurthy, Raghu ^[3]; Stoelinga, Mark J. ^[4]; Sharp, Justin ^[5]; Darby, Lisa S. ^[2]; Turner, David D. ^[2]; Baidar, Sunil ^[1]; Sandberg, Scott P. ^[2]

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1. Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Boulder, Colorado, NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division, Global Monitoring Division, and Global Systems Division, Boulder, Colorado
2. NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory, Chemical Sciences Division and Physical Sciences Division, Boulder, Colorado
3. Notre Dame University, South Bend, Indiana
4. Vaisala, Inc., Seattle, Washington
5. Sharply Focused, Portland, Oregon

Ground-based Doppler-lidar instrumentation provides atmospheric wind data at dramatically improved accuracies and spatial/temporal resolutions. These capabilities have provided new insights into atmospheric flow phenomena, but they also should have a strong role in NWP model improvement. Insight into the nature of model errors can be gained by studying recurrent atmospheric flows, here a regional summertime diurnal sea breeze and subsequent marine-air intrusion into the arid interior of Oregon–Washington, where these winds are an important wind-energy resource. These marine intrusions were sampled by three scanning Doppler lidars in the Columbia River basin as part of the Second Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP2), using data from summer 2016. Lidar time–height cross sections of wind speed identified 8 days when the diurnal flow cycle (peak wind speeds at midnight, afternoon minima) was obvious and strong. The 8-day composite time–height cross sections of lidar wind speeds are used to validate those generated by the operational NCEP–HRRR model. HRRR simulated the diurnal wind cycle, but produced errors in the timing of onset and significant errors due to a premature nighttime demise of the intrusion flow, producing low-bias errors of 6 m s ⁻¹ . Day-to-day and in the composite, whenever a marine intrusion occurred, HRRR made these same errors. The errors occurred under a range of gradient wind conditions indicating that they resulted from the misrepresentation of physical processes within a limited region around the measurement locations. Because of their generation within a limited geographical area, field measurement programs can be designed to find and address the sources of these NWP errors.

• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE), Renewable Power Office. Wind Energy Technologies Office
• Grant/Contract Number: EE0007605; EE0006898
• OSTI ID: 1598754
• Journal Information: Monthly Weather Review, Journal Name: Monthly Weather Review Vol. 148 Journal Issue: 3; ISSN 0027-0644
• Publisher: American Meteorological Society
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English