CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century

Soong, Jennifer L.; Phillips, Claire L.; Ledna, Catherine; Koven, Charles D.; Torn, Margaret S.

doi:10.1029/2019JG005266

Title: CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century

Journal Article · Mon Feb 03 00:00:00 EST 2020 · Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019JG005266· OSTI ID:1597149

Soong, Jennifer L. ^[1]; Phillips, Claire L. ^[2]; Ledna, Catherine ^[3]; Koven, Charles D. ^[1]; Torn, Margaret S. ^[1]

Lawrence Berkeley National LaboratoryClimate and Ecosystem Sciences Division Berkeley CA USA
Forage Seed and Cereal Research UnitUSDA‐ARS Corvallis OR USA
Energy Resources GroupUniversity of California at Berkeley Berkeley CA USA

Despite the fundamental importance of soil temperature for Earth's carbon and energy budgets, ecosystem functioning, and agricultural production, studies of climate change impacts on soil processes have mainly relied on air temperatures, assuming they are accurate proxies for soil temperatures. We evaluated changes in soil temperature, moisture, and air temperature predicted over the 21st century from 14 Earth system models. The model ensemble predicted a global mean soil warming of 2.3 ± 0.7 and 4.5 ± 1.1 °C at 100-cm depth by the end of the 21st century for RCPs 4.5 and 8.5, respectively. Soils at 100 cm warmed at almost exactly the same rate as near-surface (~1 cm) soils. Globally, soil warming was slightly slower than air warming above it, and this difference increased over the 21st century. Regionally, soil warming kept pace with air warming in tropical and arid regions but lagged air warming in colder regions. Thus, air warming is not necessarily a good proxy for soil warming in cold regions where snow and ice impede the direct transfer of sensible heat from the atmosphere to soil. Despite this effect, high-latitude soils were still projected to warm faster than elsewhere, albeit at slower rates than surface air above them. When compared with observations, the models were able to capture soil thermal dynamics in most biomes, but some failed to recreate thermal properties in permafrost regions. Particularly in cold regions, using soil warming rather than air warming projections may improve predictions of temperature-sensitive soil processes.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0001234; AC02-05CH11231; DGE‐1450053

OSTI ID:: 1597149

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1597151; OSTI ID: 1631630

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research. Biogeosciences Vol. 125 Journal Issue: 2; ISSN 2169-8953

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 53 works

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58 GEOSCIENCES
Soil warming
CMIP5
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Temperature
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Title: CMIP5 Models Predict Rapid and Deep Soil Warming Over the 21st Century

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