Climatology Explains Intermodel Spread in Tropical Upper Tropospheric Cloud and Relative Humidity Response to Greenhouse Warming

Po‐Chedley, Stephen; Zelinka, Mark D.; Jeevanjee, Nadir; Thorsen, Tyler J.; Santer, Benjamin D.

doi:10.1029/2019GL084786

Title: Climatology Explains Intermodel Spread in Tropical Upper Tropospheric Cloud and Relative Humidity Response to Greenhouse Warming

Journal Article · Tue Nov 19 00:00:00 EST 2019 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019GL084786· OSTI ID:1576041

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Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI)Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Livermore CA USA
Department of GeosciencesPrinceton University Princeton NJ USA, Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Princeton NJ USA
NASA Langley Research Center Hampton VA USA

The response of upper tropospheric clouds and relative humidity (RH) to warming is important to the overall sensitivity of the Earth to increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Previous research has shown that changes in hydrologic fields should closely track rising isotherms in a warming climate. Here we show that the distribution of tropical clouds and RH in general circulation models is approximately constant under greenhouse warming when using temperature as a vertical coordinate. By assuming that these fields are an invariant function of atmospheric temperature and that temperature change follows a dilute moist adiabat, we are able to accurately predict cloud fraction and RH changes in the tropical upper troposphere (150–400 hPa) in 27 general circulation models. Our results indicate that intermodel spread in changes of tropical upper tropospheric clouds and RH is closely related to differences in model climatology and could be substantially reduced if model ensembles reliably reproduced observed climatologies.

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Research Organization:: Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA)

Grant/Contract Number:: 18-ERD-054; AC52-07NA27344; AGS‐1624881

OSTI ID:: 1576041

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1576042; OSTI ID: 1592033

Report Number(s):: LLNL-JRNL-783140

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Journal Name: Geophysical Research Letters Vol. 46 Journal Issue: 22; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

Citation Metrics:

Cited by: 15 works

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