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Impact of petrophysical uncertainty on Bayesian hydrogeophysical inversion and model selection

Journal Article · · Advances in Water Resources
 [1];  [1]
  1. Univ. of Lausanne, Lausanne (Switzerland). Inst. of Earth Sciences, Applied and Environmental Geophysics Group
+ Show Author Affiliations
Quantitative hydrogeophysical studies rely heavily on petrophysical relationships that link geophysical properties to hydrogeological properties and state variables. Coupled inversion studies are frequently based on the questionable assumption that these relationships are perfect (i.e., no scatter). Using synthetic examples and crosshole ground-penetrating radar (GPR) data from the South Oyster Bacterial Transport Site in Virginia, USA, we investigate the impact of spatially-correlated petrophysical uncertainty on inferred posterior porosity and hydraulic conductivity distributions and on Bayes factors used in Bayesian model selection. Our study shows that accounting for petrophysical uncertainty in the inversion (I) decreases bias of the inferred variance of hydrogeological subsurface properties, (II) provides more realistic uncertainty assessment and (III) reduces the overconfidence in the ability of geophysical data to falsify conceptual hydrogeological models.
Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231
OSTI ID:
1567104
Journal Information:
Advances in Water Resources, Journal Name: Advances in Water Resources Journal Issue: C Vol. 111; ISSN 0309-1708
Publisher:
ElsevierCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (1)

On the Field Estimation of Moisture Content Using Electrical Geophysics: The Impact of Petrophysical Model Uncertainty journal August 2019

Figures / Tables (17)

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Related Subjects

58 GEOSCIENCES
Bayesian inversion
Bayesian model selection
conceptual model
evidence
hydrogeophysics
petrophysical uncertainty