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Decadal Shift of NAO-Linked Interannual Sea Level Variability along the U.S. Northeast Coast

Journal Article · · Journal of Climate
 [1];  [1];  [1];  [2];  [3]
  1. Univ. of Colorado, Boulder, CO (United States)
  2. Jenderal Soedirman Univ., Purwokerto (Indonesia)
  3. NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (United States)
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Recent studies have linked interannual sea level variability and extreme events along the U.S. northeast coast (NEC) to the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), a natural internal climate mode that prevails in the North Atlantic Ocean. The correlation between the NAO index and coastal sea level north of Cape Hatteras was weak from the 1960s to the mid-1980s, but it has markedly increased since around 1987. The causes for the decadal shift remain unknown. Yet understanding the abrupt change is vital for decadal sea level prediction and is essential for risk management. Here we use a robust method, the Bayesian dynamic linear model (DLM), to explore the nonstationary NAO impact on NEC sea level. The results show that a spatial pattern change of NAO-related winds near the NEC is a major cause of the NAO–sea level relationship shift. A new index using regional sea level pressure is developed that is a significantly better predictor of NEC sea level than is the NAO and is strongly linked to the intensity of westerly winds near the NEC. Finally, these results point to the vital importance of monitoring regional changes of wind and sea level pressure patterns, rather than the NAO index alone, to achieve more accurate predictions of sea level change along the NEC.
Research Organization:
Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
OSTI ID:
1565704
Journal Information:
Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 13 Vol. 31; ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Cited By (8)

Forcing Factors Affecting Sea Level Changes at the Coast journal May 2019
Impacts of Basin-Scale Climate Modes on Coastal Sea Level: a Review journal August 2019
The Dominant Global Modes of Recent Internal Sea Level Variability journal April 2019
How is New England Coastal Sea Level Related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26° N? journal May 2019
Interannual Sea Level Variability Along the Southeastern Seaboard of the United States in Relation to the Gyre‐Scale Heat Divergence in the North Atlantic journal July 2019
The Relationship Between U.S. East Coast Sea Level and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: A Review journal September 2019
Altimeter-era emergence of the patterns of forced sea-level rise in climate models and implications for the future journal December 2018
Towards Comprehensive Observing and Modeling Systems for Monitoring and Predicting Regional to Coastal Sea Level journal July 2019

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
North Atlantic oscillation
meteorology & atmospheric sciences
sea level