The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health

Stowell, Jennifer D.; Kim, Young-min; Gao, Yang; Fu, Joshua S.; Chang, Howard H.; Liu, Yang

doi:10.1016/j.envint.2017.08.001

Title: The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health

Journal Article · Tue Aug 08 00:00:00 EDT 2017 · Environment International

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envint.2017.08.001· OSTI ID:1565650

Stowell, Jennifer D. ^[1]; Kim, Young-min ^[2]; Gao, Yang ^[3]; Fu, Joshua S. ^[4]; Chang, Howard H. ^[1];

^[1]

Emory Univ., Atlanta, GA (United States)
Sungkyunkwan Univ. School of Medicine, Seoul (Republic of Korea)
Ocean Univ. of China, Shandong (China)
Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (United States)

Overwhelming evidence has shown that, from the Industrial Revolution to the present, human activities influence ground-level ozone (O₃) concentrations. Past studies demonstrate links between O₃ exposure and health. However, knowledge gaps remain in our understanding concerning the impacts of climate change mitigation policies on O₃ concentrations and health. Using a hybrid downscaling approach, we evaluated the separate impact of climate change and emission control policies on O₃ levels and associated excess mortality in the US in the 2050s under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). We show that, by the 2050s, under RCP4.5, increased O₃ levels due to combined climate change and emission control policies, could contribute to an increase of approximately 50 premature deaths annually nationwide in the US. The biggest impact, however, is seen under RCP8.5, where rises in O₃ concentrations are expected to result in over 2,200 additional premature deaths annually. Here, the largest increases in O₃ are seen in RCP8.5 in the Northeast, the Southeast, the Central, and the West regions of the US. Additionally, when O₃ increases are examined by climate change and emissions contributions separately, the benefits of emissions mitigation efforts may significantly outweigh the effects of climate change mitigation policies on O₃-related mortality.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); UT-Battelle LLC/ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1565650

Alternate ID(s):: OSTI ID: 1495612

Journal Information:: Environment International, Vol. 108, Issue C; ISSN 0160-4120

Publisher:: ElsevierCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 44 works

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54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
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Title: The impact of climate change and emissions control on future ozone levels: Implications for human health

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