Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years

Liu, Zhengyu; Lu, Zhengyao; Wen, Xinyu; Otto-Bliesner, B. L.; Timmermann, A.; Cobb, K. M.

doi:10.1038/nature13963

Title: Evolution and forcing mechanisms of El Niño over the past 21,000 years

Journal Article · Thu Nov 27 00:00:00 EST 2014 · Nature (London)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/nature13963· OSTI ID:1565324

Liu, Zhengyu ^[1]; Lu, Zhengyao ^[2]; Wen, Xinyu ^[2]; Otto-Bliesner, B. L. ^[3]; Timmermann, A. ^[4]; Cobb, K. M. ^[5]

Univ. of Wisconsin, Madison, WI (United States); Peking Univ., Beijing (China)
Peking Univ., Beijing (China)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Univ. of Hawaii, Honolulu, HI (United States)
Georgia Inst. of Technology, Atlanta, GA (United States)

The El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is Earth’s dominant source of interannual climate variability, but its response to global warming remains highly uncertain1. To improve our understanding of ENSO’s sensitivity to external climate forcing, it is paramount to determine its past behaviour by using palaeoclimate data and model simulations. Palaeoclimate records show that ENSO has varied considerably since the Last Glacial Maximum (21,000 years ago), and some data sets predict a gradual intensification of ENSO over the past ~6,000 years. Other attempts to simulate the transient evolution of ENSO have relied on simplified models or snapshot experiments. In this work, we assess a series of transient Coupled General Circulation Model simulations forced by changes in greenhouse gasses, orbital forcing, the meltwater discharge and the ice-sheet history throughout the past 21,000 years. Consistent with most palaeo-ENSO reconstructions, our model simulates an orbitally induced strengthening of ENSO during the Holocene epoch, which is caused by increasing positive ocean–atmosphere feedbacks. During the early deglaciation, ENSO characteristics change drastically in response to meltwater discharges and the resulting changes in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and equatorial annual cycle. Increasing deglacial atmospheric CO₂ concentrations tend to weaken ENSO, whereas retreating glacial ice sheets intensify ENSO. The complex evolution of forcings and ENSO feedbacks and the uncertainties in the reconstruction further highlight the challenge and opportunity for constraining future ENSO responses.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)

OSTI ID:: 1565324

Journal Information:: Nature (London), Vol. 515, Issue 7528; ISSN 0028-0836

Publisher:: Nature Publishing GroupCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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