Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

Edwards, T. L.; Fettweis, X.; Gagliardini, O.; Gillet-Chaulet, F.; Goelzer, H.; Gregory, J. M.; Hoffman, M.; Huybrechts, P.; Payne, A. J.; Perego, M.; Price, S.; Quiquet, A.; Ritz, C.

doi:10.5194/tc-8-195-2014

Title: Effect of uncertainty in surface mass balance–elevation feedback on projections of the future sea level contribution of the Greenland ice sheet

Journal Article · Thu Jan 30 00:00:00 EST 2014 · The Cryosphere (Online)

DOI:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-195-2014· OSTI ID:1565255

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Bristol Univ. (United Kingdom). Dept. of Geographical Sciences
Univ. of Liege, (Belgium). Dept. of Geography, Lab. of Climatology
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement, Saint-Martin-d’Hères (France); Inst. Univ. de France, Paris (France)
Laboratoire de Glaciologie et Géophysique de l’Environnement, Saint-Martin-d’Hères (France)
Vrije Univ., Brussel (Belgium). Earth System Sciences & Dept. Geografie
Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom). NCAS-Climate, Dept. of Meteorology; The Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States). Fluid Dynamics and Solid Mechanics Group
Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL (United States). Dept. of Scientific Computing

We apply a new parameterisation of the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) feedback between surface mass balance (SMB: the sum of surface accumulation and surface ablation) and surface elevation in the MAR regional climate model (Edwards et al., 2014) to projections of future climate change using five ice sheet models (ISMs). The MAR (Modèle Atmosphérique Régional: Fettweis, 2007) climate projections are for 2000–2199, forced by the ECHAM5 and HadCM3 global climate models (GCMs) under the SRES A1B emissions scenario. The additional sea level contribution due to the SMB–elevation feedback averaged over five ISM projections for ECHAM5 and three for HadCM3 is 4.3% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 1.8–6.9%) at 2100, and 9.6% (best estimate; 95% credibility interval 3.6–16.0%) at 2200. In all results the elevation feedback is significantly positive, amplifying the GrIS sea level contribution relative to the MAR projections in which the ice sheet topography is fixed: the lower bounds of our 95% credibility intervals (CIs) for sea level contributions are larger than the "no feedback" case for all ISMs and GCMs. Our method is novel in sea level projections because we propagate three types of modelling uncertainty – GCM and ISM structural uncertainties, and elevation feedback parameterisation uncertainty – along the causal chain, from SRES scenario to sea level, within a coherent experimental design and statistical framework. The relative contributions to uncertainty depend on the timescale of interest. At 2100, the GCM uncertainty is largest, but by 2200 both the ISM and parameterisation uncertainties are larger. We also perform a perturbed parameter ensemble with one ISM to estimate the shape of the projected sea level probability distribution; our results indicate that the probability density is slightly skewed towards higher sea level contributions.

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Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); Univ. of California, Oakland, CA (United States); UT-Battelle LLC/ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC02-05CH11231; AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1565255

Journal Information:: The Cryosphere (Online), Vol. 8, Issue 1; ISSN 1994-0424

Publisher:: European Geosciences UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 55 works

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