The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO2 with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures

Held, Isaac M.; Zhao, Ming

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00050.1

The Response of Tropical Cyclone Statistics to an Increase in CO₂ with Fixed Sea Surface Temperatures

Journal Article · Sat Oct 15 00:00:00 EDT 2011 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-11-00050.1· OSTI ID:1564909

Held, Isaac M. ^[1]; Zhao, Ming ^[2]

National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Princeton, NJ (United States)
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Princeton, NJ (United States); University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

The effects on tropical cyclone statistics of doubling CO₂, with fixed sea surface temperatures (SSTs), are compared to the effects of a 2-K increase in SST, with fixed CO₂, using a 50-km resolution global atmospheric model. Confirming earlier results of Yoshimura and Sugi, a significant fraction of the reduction in globally averaged tropical storm frequency seen in simulations in which both SST and CO₂ are increased can be thought of as the effect of the CO₂ increase with fixed SSTs. Globally, the model produces a decrease in tropical cyclone frequency of about 10% due to doubling of CO₂ and an additional 10% for a 2-K increase in SST, resulting in roughly a 20% reduction when both effects are present. The relative contribution of the CO₂ effect to the total reduction is larger in the Northern than in the Southern Hemisphere. The average intensity of storms increases in the model with increasing SST, but intensity remains roughly unchanged, or decreases slightly, with the increase in CO₂ alone. As a result, when considering the frequency of more intense cyclones, the intensity increase tends to compensate for the reduced total cyclone numbers for the SST increase in isolation, but not for the CO₂ increase in isolation. Changes in genesis in these experiments roughly follow changes in mean vertical motion, reflecting changes in convective mass fluxes. Discussion of one possible perspective on how changes in the convective mass flux might alter genesis rates is provided.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF); UT-Battelle LLC/ORNL, Oak Ridge, TN (Unted States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: AC05-00OR22725

OSTI ID:: 1564909

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 20 Vol. 24; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (36)

Tropical cyclogenesis sensitivity to environmental parameters in radiative-convective equilibrium Nolan, David S.; Rappin, Eric D.; Emanuel, Kerry A. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 133, Issue 629 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.170	journal	October 2007
On dynamic and thermodynamic components of cloud changes Bony, S.; Dufresne, J. -L.; Le Treut, H. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 22, Issue 2-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-003-0369-6	journal	March 2004
Tropical storms: representation and diagnosis in climate models and the impacts of climate change McDonald, R. E.; Bleaken, D. G.; Cresswell, D. R. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 25, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-004-0491-0	journal	May 2005
Fast versus slow response in climate change: implications for the global hydrological cycle Bala, Govindasamy; Caldeira, K.; Nemani, R. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 35, Issue 2-3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0583-y	journal	May 2009
Climate-Convection Feedbacks: Some Further Issues Betts, Alan K. Climatic Change, Vol. 39, Issue 1, p. 35-38 https://doi.org/10.1023/A:1005323805826	journal	May 1998
Low frequency variability of tropical cyclone potential intensity 1. Interannual to interdecadal variability Bister, Marja Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 107, Issue D24 https://doi.org/10.1029/2001JD000776	journal	January 2002
Increased sensitivity of tropical cyclogenesis to wind shear in higher SST environments Nolan, David S.; Rappin, Eric D. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 35, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2008GL034147	journal	January 2008
Precipitation, radiative forcing and global temperature change: PRECIPITATION AND RADIATIVE FORCING Andrews, Timothy; Forster, Piers M.; Boucher, Olivier Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 37, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL043991	journal	July 2010
Effect of remote sea surface temperature change on tropical cyclone potential intensity Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Soden, Brian J. Nature, Vol. 450, Issue 7172 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature06423	journal	December 2007
Tropical cyclones and climate change Knutson, Thomas R.; McBride, John L.; Chan, Johnny Nature Geoscience, Vol. 3, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo779	journal	February 2010
Tropical cyclone genesis potential index in climate models Camargo, Suzana; Sobel, Adam H.; Barnston, Anthony G. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 59, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00238.x	journal	January 2007
How may tropical cyclones change in a warmer climate? Bengtsson, Lennart; Hodges, Kevin I.; Esch, Monika Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 59, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1600-0870.2007.00251.x	journal	January 2007
Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Warming on the Frequency of Intense Atlantic Hurricanes Bender, M. A.; Knutson, T. R.; Tuleya, R. E. Science, Vol. 327, Issue 5964 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1180568	journal	January 2010
A Tropical Cyclone Genesis Parameter for the Tropical Atlantic DeMaria, Mark; Knaff, John A.; Connell, Bernadette H. Weather and Forecasting, Vol. 16, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0434(2001)016<0219:ATCGPF>2.0.CO;2	journal	April 2001
Time-Mean Response over the Tropical Pacific to Increased C0 ₂ in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model Knutson, Thomas R.; Manabe, Syukuro Journal of Climate, Vol. 8, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<2181:TMROTT>2.0.CO;2	journal	September 1995
A Mechanism of Tropical Precipitation Change due to CO ₂ Increase Sugi, Masato; Yoshimura, Jun Journal of Climate, Vol. 17, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017<0238:AMOTPC>2.0.CO;2	journal	January 2004
An Air–Sea Interaction Theory for Tropical Cyclones. Part II: Evolutionary Study Using a Nonhydrostatic Axisymmetric Numerical Model Rotunno, Richard; Emanuel, Kerry A. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 44, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1987)044<0542:AAITFT>2.0.CO;2	journal	February 1987
The Maximum Intensity of Hurricanes Emanuel, Kerry A. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 45, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1988)045<1143:TMIOH>2.0.CO;2	journal	April 1988
Mixed Rossby–Gravity Waves and Western Pacific Tropical Cyclogenesis. Part I: Synoptic Evolution Dickinson, Michael; Molinari, John Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 59, Issue 14 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(2002)059<2183:MRGWAW>2.0.CO;2	journal	July 2002
The Genesis of Hurricane Guillermo: TEXMEX Analyses and a Modeling Study Bister, Marja; Emanuel, Kerry A. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 125, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125<2662:TGOHGT>2.0.CO;2	journal	October 1997
Environmental Factors Affecting Tropical Cyclone Power Dissipation Emanuel, Kerry Journal of Climate, Vol. 20, Issue 22 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI1571.1	journal	November 2007
The Hydrological Cycle over a Wide Range of Climates Simulated with an Idealized GCM O’Gorman, Paul A.; Schneider, Tapio Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/2007JCLI2065.1	journal	August 2008
Changes in Tropical Cyclone Activity due to Global Warming: Results from a High-Resolution Coupled General Circulation Model Gualdi, S.; Scoccimarro, E.; Navarra, A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 21, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI1921.1	journal	October 2008
Simulations of Global Hurricane Climatology, Interannual Variability, and Response to Global Warming Using a 50-km Resolution GCM Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.; Lin, Shian-Jiann Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3049.1	journal	December 2009
Contribution of Tropical Cyclones to the Global Precipitation from Eight Seasons of TRMM Data: Regional, Seasonal, and Interannual Variations Jiang, Haiyan; Zipser, Edward J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/2009JCLI3303.1	journal	March 2010
An Analysis of the Effect of Global Warming on the Intensity of Atlantic Hurricanes Using a GCM with Statistical Refinement Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M. Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3837.1	journal	December 2010
Retrospective Forecasts of the Hurricane Season Using a Global Atmospheric Model Assuming Persistence of SST Anomalies Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M.; Vecchi, Gabriel A. Monthly Weather Review, Vol. 138, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010MWR3366.1	journal	October 2010
Hurricanes and Global Warming: Results from Downscaling IPCC AR4 Simulations Emanuel, Kerry; Sundararajan, Ragoth; Williams, John Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 89, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-347	journal	March 2008
The Hurricane—Climate Connection Emanuel, Kerry Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 89, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-5-Emanuel	journal	May 2008
Origin of the Summertime Synoptic-Scale Wave Train in the Western North Pacific* Li, Tim Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 63, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS3676.1	journal	March 2006
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming Held, Isaac M.; Soden, Brian J. Journal of Climate, Vol. 19, Issue 21 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI3990.1	journal	November 2006
Influence of the Global Warming on Tropical Cyclone Climatology: An Experiment with the JMA Global Model. Sugi, Masato; Noda, Akira; Sato, Nobuo Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan, Vol. 80, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.80.249	journal	January 2002
Influence of Greenhouse Warming on Tropical Cyclone Frequency Yoshimura, Jun; Sugi, Masato; Noda, Akira Journal of the Meteorological Society of Japan. Ser. II, Vol. 84, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.2151/jmsj.84.405	journal	January 2006
Tropical Cyclone Climatology in a High-resolution AGCM −Impacts of SST Warming and CO2 Increase− Yoshimura, Jun; Sugi, Masato SOLA, Vol. 1 https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2005-035	journal	January 2005
A Reduction in Global Tropical Cyclone Frequency due to Global Warming Sugi, Masato; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Yoshimura, Jun SOLA, Vol. 5 https://doi.org/10.2151/sola.2009-042	journal	January 2009
Tropical cyclogenesis in a tropical wave critical layer: easterly waves Dunkerton, T. J.; Montgomery, M. T.; Wang, Z. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 9, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-9-5587-2009	journal	January 2009

Cited By (26)

Characteristics of tropical cyclones in high‐resolution models in the present climate Shaevitz, Daniel A.; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 6, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014ms000372	journal	December 2014
Interplay of drought and tropical cyclone activity in SE U.S. gross primary productivity: Impacts of TC Activity on SE U.S. GPP Lowman, Lauren E. L.; Barros, Ana P. Journal of Geophysical Research: Biogeosciences, Vol. 121, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015jg003279	journal	June 2016
Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates: TC TRACKS IN PRESENT AND FUTURE CLIMATES Nakamura, Jennifer; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 122, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jd027007	journal	September 2017
The sensitivity of hurricane frequency to ITCZ changes and radiatively forced warming in aquaplanet simulations: SENSITIVITY OF AQUAPLANET HURRICANES Merlis, Timothy M.; Zhao, Ming; Held, Isaac M. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50680	journal	August 2013
Tropical cyclones and climate change: Tropical cyclones and climate change Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McBride, John L.; Klotzbach, Philip J. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.371	journal	November 2015
Tropical cyclones in climate models: Tropical cyclones in climate models Camargo, Suzana J.; Wing, Allison A. Wiley Interdisciplinary Reviews: Climate Change, Vol. 7, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.373	journal	November 2015
Mechanism of the Indian Ocean Tropical Cyclone Frequency Changes due to Global Warming Sugi, Masato; Murakami, Hiroyuki; Yoshimura, Jun Monitoring and Prediction of Tropical Cyclones in the Indian Ocean and Climate Change https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-7720-0_4	book	January 2014
Future changes in tropical cyclone activity projected by multi-physics and multi-SST ensemble experiments using the 60-km-mesh MRI-AGCM Murakami, Hiroyuki; Mizuta, Ryo; Shindo, Eiki Climate Dynamics, Vol. 39, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-011-1223-x	journal	October 2011
Fine resolution simulations of the effect of climate change on tropical cyclones in the South Pacific Walsh, Kevin Climate Dynamics, Vol. 45, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2497-1	journal	February 2015
Tropical cyclogenesis in warm climates simulated by a cloud-system resolving model Fedorov, Alexey V.; Muir, Les; Boos, William R. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4134-2	journal	March 2018
Tropical cyclone sensitivities to CO2 doubling: roles of atmospheric resolution, synoptic variability and background climate changes Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Delworth, Thomas L.; Murakami, Hiroyuki Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 9-10 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-04913-y	journal	August 2019
Future changes in Atlantic hurricanes with the rotated-stretched ARPEGE-Climat at very high resolution Chauvin, Fabrice; Pilon, Romain; Palany, Philippe Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-019-05040-4	journal	November 2019
Projected changes in ENSO-driven regional tropical cyclone tracks Bell, Samuel S.; Chand, Savin S.; Turville, Christopher Climate Dynamics, Vol. 54, Issue 3-4 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-020-05129-1	journal	January 2020
Rapid Adjustments of Cloud and Hydrological Cycle to Increasing CO2: a Review Kamae, Youichi; Watanabe, Masahiro; Ogura, Tomoo Current Climate Change Reports, Vol. 1, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s40641-015-0007-5	journal	March 2015
The Climatological Effect of Saharan Dust on Global Tropical Cyclones in a Fully Coupled GCM Strong, Jeffrey D. O.; Vecchi, Gabriel A.; Ginoux, Paul Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 123, Issue 10 https://doi.org/10.1029/2017jd027808	journal	May 2018
Improving AGCM Hurricane Structure With Two-Way Nesting Gao, Kun; Harris, Lucas; Chen, Jan-Huey Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, Vol. 11, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018ms001359	journal	January 2019
Orbitally Induced Variation of Tropical Cyclone Genesis Potential Over the Western North Pacific During the Mid‐Piacenzian Warm Period: A Modeling Perspective Yan, Qing; Wei, Ting; Zhang, Zhongshi Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology, Vol. 34, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018pa003535	journal	June 2019
Understand the Direct Effect of CO ₂ Increase on Tropical Circulation and TC Activity: Land Surface Warming Versus Direct Radiative Forcing Zhou, Wenyu; Zhao, Ming; Yang, Da Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 46, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1029/2019gl082865	journal	June 2019
The Response of Tropical Organized Convection to El Niño Warming Sullivan, Sylvia C.; Schiro, Kathleen A.; Stubenrauch, Claudia Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd031026	journal	August 2019
Tropical cyclone rainfall area controlled by relative sea surface temperature Lin, Yanluan; Zhao, Ming; Zhang, Minghua Nature Communications, Vol. 6, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/ncomms7591	journal	March 2015
Marine cloud brightening: regional applications Latham, John; Gadian, Alan; Fournier, Jim Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A: Mathematical, Physical and Engineering Sciences, Vol. 372, Issue 2031 https://doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2014.0053	journal	December 2014
Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2 Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Delgenio, Anthony D. Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography, Vol. 68, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.3402/tellusa.v68.31494	journal	July 2016
Tropical cyclones in the GISS ModelE2 Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H.; Del Genio, Anthony D. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-2ymh-8911	text	January 2016
Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Model Tracks in Present and Future Climates Nakamura, Jennifer; Camargo, Suzana J.; Sobel, Adam H. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8-j8kz-mb30	text	January 2017
Tropical cyclones and climate change Walsh, Kevin J. E.; McBride, John L.; Klotzbach, Philip J. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d86t0mq1	text	January 2016
Tropical cyclones in climate models Camargo, Suzana J.; Wing, Allison A. Columbia University https://doi.org/10.7916/d8pv6kf0	text	January 2016

Similar Records

Sensitivity of tropical cyclone intensity to sea surface temperature

Journal Article · Tue Jun 01 00:00:00 EDT 1993 · Journal of Climate; (United States) · OSTI ID:5899706

Resolution Dependence of Future Tropical Cyclone Projections of CAM5.1 in the U.S. CLIVAR Hurricane Working Group Idealized Configurations

Journal Article · Mon May 11 20:00:00 EDT 2015 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1407351

TC-Permitting GCM Simulations of Hurricane Frequency Response to Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies Projected for the Late-Twenty-First Century

Journal Article · Mon Apr 09 20:00:00 EDT 2012 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1564914

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Carbon dioxide
Climate change
Climate models
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Tropical cyclones