Detecting inhomogeneities in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over the central United States

Ferguson, Craig R.; Villarini, Gabriele

doi:10.1029/2011jd016988

Detecting inhomogeneities in the Twentieth Century Reanalysis over the central United States

Journal Article · Sat Mar 10 00:00:00 EST 2012 · Journal of Geophysical Research

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2011jd016988· OSTI ID:1564836

Ferguson, Craig R. ^[1]; Villarini, Gabriele ^[2]

Univ. of Tokyo, Tokyo (Japan)
Princeton Univ., Princeton, NJ (United States); Willis Research Network, London (United Kingdom)

The Twentieth Century Reanalysis (20CR), which spans the 138 year period from 1871 to 2008, was intended for a variety of climate applications, including long–term trend assessment. Because over land 20CR only assimilates surface pressure observations and their count increases by an order of magnitude over the course of the record, a key question is whether the 20CR is homogenous and hence suitable for detecting climate–related changes. We use three statistical methods (Pettitt and Bai–Perron tests and segmented regression) to detect abrupt shifts in multiple hydrometeorological variable mean and uncertainty fields over the central United States. For surface air temperature and precipitation, we use the Climate Research Unit (CRU) time series data set for comparison. We find that for warm–season months, there is a consensus change point among all variables between 1940 and 1950, which is not substantiated by the CRU record. While we cannot say with certainty that these shifts in the 20CR analysis fields are artificial, our statistical analyses, coupled with a visual inspection of the underlying assimilated observational count time series, strongly point to this conclusion. Furthermore, our recommendation is therefore for users to restrict climate trend applications over the central United States to the second half century of the 20CR record, after observational density has stabilized.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States). Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility (OLCF)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER) (SC-23)

OSTI ID:: 1564836

Journal Information:: Journal of Geophysical Research, Journal Name: Journal of Geophysical Research Journal Issue: D5 Vol. 117; ISSN 0148-0227

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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