Implausible projections overestimate near-term Bitcoin CO₂ emissions

Technical Report · Sun Sep 01 04:00:00 EDT 2019

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-019-0535-4· OSTI ID:1561950

Masanet, Eric ^[1]; Shehabi, Arman ^[2]; Lei, Nuoa ^[1]; Vranken, Harald ^[3]; Koomey, Jonathan ^[4]; Malmodin, Jens ^[5]

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1. Northwestern Univ., Evanston, IL (United States)
2. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
3. Radboud Univ., Nijmegen (Netherlands)
4. Rocky Mountain Institute, Basalt, CO (United States)
5. Ericsson Research, Stockholm (Sweden)

Bitcoin mining is becoming an increasingly energy-intensive process whose future implications for energy use and CO₂ emissions remain poorly understood. This is in part because—like many IT systems—its computational efficiencies and service demands have been evolving rapidly. Therefore, scenario analyses that explore these implications can fill pressing knowledge gaps, but they must be approached with care. History has shown that poorly constructed scenarios of future IT energy use—often due to overly-simplistic extrapolations of early rapid growth trends—can do more harm than good by spreading misinformation and driving ill-informed decisions. Indeed, the utility of an energy demand scenario is directly proportional to its credibility, which is typically demonstrated through careful attention to technology characteristics and evolution, analytical rigor and transparency, and designing scenarios that align with plausible future outcomes.

• Research Organization: Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
• Sponsoring Organization: USDOE Office of Science (SC)
• DOE Contract Number: AC02-05CH11231
• OSTI ID: 1561950
• Report Number(s): LBNL--2001235; ark:/13030/qt8vf573nb
• Country of Publication: United States
• Language: English

Related Subjects

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATION
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES