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A Review of the Role of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and Associated Climate Impacts

Journal Article · · Reviews of Geophysics (1985)
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1029/2019rg000644· OSTI ID:1560164
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [3];  [6];  [7]
  1. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Princeton, NJ (United States)
  2. Univ. of Reading, Reading (United Kingdom)
  3. National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
  4. Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
  5. Univ. of Southampton (United Kingdom)
  6. Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  7. Atmospheric and Environmental Research, Inc., Lexington, MA (United States)
By synthesizing recent studies employing a wide range of approaches (modern observations, paleo reconstructions, and climate model simulations), this paper provides a comprehensive review of the linkage between multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) variability and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) and associated climate impacts. There is strong observational and modeling evidence that multidecadal AMOC variability is a crucial driver of the observed AMV and associated climate impacts and an important source of enhanced decadal predictability and prediction skill. The AMOC-AMV linkage is consistent with observed key elements of AMV. Furthermore, this synthesis also points to a leading role of the AMOC in a range of AMV-related climate phenomena having enormous societal and economic implications, for example, Intertropical Convergence Zone shifts; Sahel and Indian monsoons; Atlantic hurricanes; El Niño–Southern Oscillation; Pacific Decadal Variability; North Atlantic Oscillation; climate over Europe, North America, and Asia; Arctic sea ice and surface air temperature; and hemispheric-scale surface temperature. Paleoclimate evidence indicates that a similar linkage between multidecadal AMOC variability and AMV and many associated climate impacts may also have existed in the preindustrial era, that AMV has enhanced multidecadal power significantly above a red noise background, and that AMV is not primarily driven by external forcing. The role of the AMOC in AMV and associated climate impacts has been underestimated in most state-of-the-art climate models, posing significant challenges but also great opportunities for substantial future improvements in understanding and predicting AMV and associated climate impacts.
Research Organization:
Woods Hole Oceanographic Inst., Woods Hole, MA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0019492
OSTI ID:
1560164
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1560171
OSTI ID: 1613250
Journal Information:
Reviews of Geophysics (1985), Journal Name: Reviews of Geophysics (1985) Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 57; ISSN 8755-1209
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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Temporal Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation at 26.5 N journal August 2007
Persistent Positive North Atlantic Oscillation Mode Dominated the Medieval Climate Anomaly journal April 2009
Atlantic Forcing of Persistent Drought in West Africa journal April 2009
Global Signatures and Dynamical Origins of the Little Ice Age and Medieval Climate Anomaly journal November 2009
Ice Age Terminations journal October 2009
Deconstructing the Conveyor Belt journal June 2010
Atmospheric Blocking and Atlantic Multidecadal Ocean Variability journal November 2011
Varying planetary heat sink led to global-warming slowdown and acceleration journal August 2014
Observing the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation yields a decade of inevitable surprises journal June 2015
Atlantic and Pacific multidecadal oscillations and Northern Hemisphere temperatures journal February 2015
Strong Association Between West African Rainfall and U.S. Landfall of Intense Hurricanes journal September 1990
Decadal Trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: Regional Temperatures and Precipitation journal August 1995
Predictability of North Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability journal January 1997
A North Atlantic Climate Pacemaker for the Centuries journal June 2000
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation journal October 2015
Comment on "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation" journal June 2016
Response to Comment on "The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation without a role for ocean circulation" journal June 2016
A sea change in our view of overturning in the subpolar North Atlantic journal January 2019
Sea Surface Temperature Variability: Patterns and Mechanisms journal January 2010
Overturning in the North Atlantic journal January 2012
Wally Was Right: Predictive Ability of the North Atlantic “Conveyor Belt” Hypothesis for Abrupt Climate Change journal May 2007
Surface Climate Variations over the North Atlantic Ocean during Winter: 1900–1989 journal September 1993
Interdecadal Variations of the Thermohaline Circulation in a Coupled Ocean-Atmosphere Model journal November 1993
Interdecadal Variations in North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature and Associated Atmospheric Conditions journal January 1994
A Linear Thermohaline Oscillator Driven by Stochastic Atmospheric Forcing journal October 1995
Decadal Variability in Coupled Sea-Ice–Thermohaline Circulation Systems* journal December 1997
On the Variability of the Thermohaline Circulation in the GFDL Coupled Model journal April 1998
Diagnosis and Short-Lead Time Prediction of Summer Rainfall in Tropical North Africa at Interannual and Multidecadal Timescales journal December 1998
Multiscale Variabilities in Global Sea Surface Temperatures and Their Relationships with Tropospheric Climate Patterns journal September 1999
Multidecadal Thermohaline Circulation Variability Driven by Atmospheric Surface Flux Forcing journal May 2000
Recent Variability of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation Inferred from Surface Heat and Freshwater Fluxes journal September 2000
The Role of Ice–Ocean Interactions in the Variability of the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation journal March 2001
North Atlantic Interdecadal Variability: Oceanic Response to the North Atlantic Oscillation (1865–1997) journal March 2001
A Study of the Interaction of the North Atlantic Oscillation with Ocean Circulation journal April 2001
Predictability of Northeast Brazil Rainfall and Real-Time Forecast Skill, 1987–98 journal May 2001
Estimates of Meridional Atmosphere and Ocean Heat Transports journal August 2001
A Well-Verified, Multiproxy Reconstruction of the Winter North Atlantic Oscillation Index since a.d. 1400* journal July 2002
Understanding the Persistence of Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in Midlatitudes journal January 2003
Variability and Trends of Air Temperature and Pressure in the Maritime Arctic, 1875–2000 journal June 2003
Long-Term Ice Variability in Arctic Marginal Seas journal June 2003
Data-Based Meridional Overturning Streamfunctions for the Global Ocean journal October 2003
Influence of the Ocean on North Atlantic Climate Variability 1871–1999 journal October 2003
Reconstructing, Monitoring, and Predicting Multidecadal-Scale Changes in the North Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation with Sea Surface Temperature journal April 2004
The Early Twentieth-Century Warming in the Arctic—A Possible Mechanism journal October 2004
Northern Hemispheric Interdecadal Variability: A Coupled Air–Sea Mode journal August 1998
A Pacific Interdecadal Climate Oscillation with Impacts on Salmon Production journal June 1997
A Numerical Calculation of the Circulation in the North Atlantic Ocean journal October 1972
Heat Budget of Tropical Ocean and Atmosphere journal February 1980
On Meridional Heat Transports in the World Ocean journal August 1982
Is the North Atlantic in Sverdrup Balance? journal December 1985
Latent and Sensible Heat Flux Anomalies over the Northern Oceans: Driving the Sea Surface Temperature journal August 1992
JEBAR, Bottom Pressure Torque, and Gulf Stream Separation journal May 1996
Shallow, Intermediate, and Deep Overturning Components of the Global Heat Budget journal March 2003
Global view of the Origin of Tropical Disturbances and Storms journal October 1968
A New Rossby Wave–Breaking Interpretation of the North Atlantic Oscillation journal February 2008
Bjerknes Compensation at High Northern Latitudes: The Ocean Forcing the Atmosphere journal December 2007
Global Teleconnections in Response to a Shutdown of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation journal June 2008
Multidecadal Climate Variability in Observed and Modeled Surface Temperatures journal March 2008
Variation of the North American Summer Monsoon Regimes and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation journal June 2008
Climate Response to Anomalously Large and Small Atlantic Warm Pools during the Summer journal June 2008
The Response of the ITCZ to Extratropical Thermal Forcing: Idealized Slab-Ocean Experiments with a GCM journal July 2008
An Observational Estimate of Inferred Ocean Energy Divergence journal May 2008
On Multidecadal Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in the Community Climate System Model Version 3 journal November 2008
Multidecadal Variability in North Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity journal August 2008
North Pacific Climate Response to Freshwater Forcing in the Subarctic North Atlantic: Oceanic and Atmospheric Pathways journal March 2009
Forced and Internal Twentieth-Century SST Trends in the North Atlantic journal March 2009
The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Inferred from the Forced Climate Response in Coupled General Circulation Models journal April 2009
Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Air Temperature Variability: 1840–2007 journal July 2009
A U.S. CLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results journal October 2009
A Regime View of the North Atlantic Oscillation and Its Response to Anthropogenic Forcing journal March 2010
On the Path of the Gulf Stream and the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation journal June 2010
The Impact of North Atlantic–Arctic Multidecadal Variability on Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature journal November 2010
North Atlantic Multidecadal Climate Variability: An Investigation of Dominant Time Scales and Processes journal July 2010
A Significant Component of Unforced Multidecadal Variability in the Recent Acceleration of Global Warming journal February 2011
Impact of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) on Arctic Surface Air Temperature and Sea Ice Variability journal December 2011
Variations in North American Summer Precipitation Driven by the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation journal November 2011
Predictability of the Atlantic Overturning Circulation and Associated Surface Patterns in Two CCSM3 Climate Change Ensemble Experiments journal December 2011
Estimating the Decadal Predictability of a Coupled AOGCM journal November 2004
Low-Latitude Freshwater Influence on Centennial Variability of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation journal December 2004
Climate Variability and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model journal May 2016
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability and the U.K. ACSIS Program journal February 2018
Predicting Near-Term Changes in the Earth System: A Large Ensemble of Initialized Decadal Prediction Simulations Using the Community Earth System Model journal September 2018
Deducing Multidecadal Anthropogenic Global Warming Trends Using Multiple Regression Analysis journal January 2013
Have Aerosols Caused the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability? journal April 2013
Extratropical Forcing of Tropical Atlantic Variability during Boreal Summer and Fall journal March 2012
ENSO and Pacific Decadal Variability in the Community Climate System Model Version 4 journal April 2012
Multidecadal Covariability of North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature, African Dust, Sahel Rainfall, and Atlantic Hurricanes journal August 2012
Causes of the Rapid Warming of the North Atlantic Ocean in the Mid-1990s journal June 2012
Variability of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation in CCSM4 journal August 2012
Quantifying the Influence of Atlantic Heat on Barents Sea Ice Variability and Retreat journal July 2012
A Decadal Prediction Case Study: Late Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Ocean Heat Content journal August 2012
Two Tales of Initializing Decadal Climate Prediction Experiments with the ECHAM5/MPI-OM Model journal December 2012
AMO-Forced Regional Processes Affecting Summertime Precipitation Variations in the Central United States journal January 2013
The Atlantic Meridional Heat Transport at 26.5°N and Its Relationship with the MOC in the RAPID Array and the GFDL and NCAR Coupled Models journal June 2013
Meridional Energy Transport in the Coupled Atmosphere–Ocean System: Compensation and Partitioning journal September 2013
A Predictable AMO-Like Pattern in the GFDL Fully Coupled Ensemble Initialization and Decadal Forecasting System journal January 2013
Two Decades of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation: Anatomy, Variations, Extremes, Prediction, and Overcoming Its Limitations journal September 2013
Greenland Ice Sheet Mass Balance Reconstruction. Part II: Surface Mass Balance (1840–2010) journal September 2013
North American Climate in CMIP5 Experiments. Part II: Evaluation of Historical Simulations of Intraseasonal to Decadal Variability journal December 2013
Decadal Prediction of the Sahelian Precipitation in CMIP5 Simulations journal October 2013
Assimilation of Time-Averaged Pseudoproxies for Climate Reconstruction journal January 2014
Multidecadal Ocean Temperature and Salinity Variability in the Tropical North Atlantic: Linking with the AMO, AMOC, and Subtropical Cell journal August 2013
A Multimodel Study of Sea Surface Temperature and Subsurface Density Fingerprints of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation journal November 2013
Predictable Climate Impacts of the Decadal Changes in the Ocean in the 1990s journal September 2013
The Origins of Late-Twentieth-Century Variations in the Large-Scale North Atlantic Circulation journal May 2014
The Multidecadal Atlantic SST—Sahel Rainfall Teleconnection in CMIP5 Simulations journal January 2014
Is AMOC More Predictable than North Atlantic Heat Content? journal May 2014
Predicting a Decadal Shift in North Atlantic Climate Variability Using the GFDL Forecast System journal September 2014
ENSO Amplitude Modulation Associated with the Mean SST Changes in the Tropical Central Pacific Induced by Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation journal October 2014
Mechanisms of Multidecadal Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation Variability Diagnosed in Depth versus Density Space journal December 2014
An Anatomy of the Cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean in the 1960s and 1970s journal November 2014
Linking Emergence of the Central Pacific El Niño to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation journal January 2015
Influence of the North Atlantic SST Variability on the Atmospheric Circulation during the Twentieth Century journal February 2015
Does External Forcing Interfere with the AMOC’s Influence on North Atlantic Sea Surface Temperature? journal August 2015
A Millennial Summer Temperature Reconstruction for the Eastern Tibetan Plateau from Tree-Ring Width journal July 2015
Wintertime Atmospheric Response to North Atlantic Ocean Circulation Variability in a Climate Model journal October 2015
Mechanisms Determining the Winter Atmospheric Response to the Atlantic Overturning Circulation journal May 2016
The Impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation on Climate through Its Influence on the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation journal February 2016
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, Revisited journal June 2016
Does the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation Get Its Predictability from the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation? journal July 2016
Assessing the Climate Impacts of the Observed Atlantic Multidecadal Variability Using the GFDL CM2.1 and NCAR CESM1 Global Coupled Models journal April 2017
The Role of Forcings in the Twentieth-Century North Atlantic Multidecadal Variability: The 1940–75 North Atlantic Cooling Case Study journal September 2017
The Central Role of Ocean Dynamics in Connecting the North Atlantic Oscillation to the Extratropical Component of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation journal May 2017
Observed and Simulated Fingerprints of Multidecadal Climate Variability and Their Contributions to Periods of Global SST Stagnation journal January 2017
The Influences of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on the Mean Strength of the North Pacific Subtropical High during Boreal Winter journal January 2017
Comparison of Mechanisms for Low-Frequency Variability of Summer Arctic Sea Ice in Three Coupled Models journal February 2018
Comparison of Low-Frequency Internal Climate Variability in CMIP5 Models and Observations journal June 2017
Pairwise-Rotated EOFs of Global SST journal July 2017
Evolution of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability in a Model with an Improved North Atlantic Current journal July 2017
Contribution of Atlantic and Pacific Multidecadal Variability to Twentieth-Century Temperature Changes journal August 2017
Low-Pass Filtering, Heat Flux, and Atlantic Multidecadal Variability journal September 2017
Estimation of the SST Response to Anthropogenic and External Forcing and Its Impact on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation and the Pacific Decadal Oscillation journal December 2017
Gulf Stream Excursions and Sectional Detachments Generate the Decadal Pulses in the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation journal April 2018
Low-Frequency North Atlantic Climate Variability in the Community Earth System Model Large Ensemble journal January 2018
Impacts of the Atlantic Multidecadal Variability on North American Summer Climate and Heat Waves journal May 2018
Atlantic Multidecadal Variability as a Modulator of Precipitation Variability in the Southwest United States journal July 2018
Multidecadal Variability in Global Surface Temperatures Related to the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation journal April 2018
AMO Forcing of Multidecadal Pacific ITCZ Variability journal July 2018
Modeled and Observed Multidecadal Variability in the North Atlantic Jet Stream and Its Connection to Sea Surface Temperatures journal October 2018
Ocean–Atmosphere Dynamical Coupling Fundamental to the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation journal January 2019
Modulation of Arctic Sea Ice Loss by Atmospheric Teleconnections from Atlantic Multidecadal Variability journal March 2019
Mechanism of Interdecadal Thermohaline Circulation Variability in a Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere GCM journal April 2005
Simulated Tropical Response to a Substantial Weakening of the Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation journal June 2005
Arctic–North Atlantic Interactions and Multidecadal Variability of the Meridional Overturning Circulation journal October 2005
Impact of Great Salinity Anomalies on the Low-Frequency Variability of the North Atlantic Climate journal February 2006
Bjerknes Compensation and the Decadal Variability of the Energy Transports in a Coupled Climate Model journal April 2006
Interannual to Decadal Climate Predictability in the North Atlantic: A Multimodel-Ensemble Study journal April 2006
Investigating the Causes of the Response of the Thermohaline Circulation to Past and Future Climate Changes journal April 2006
Influences of the Atlantic Warm Pool on Western Hemisphere Summer Rainfall and Atlantic Hurricanes journal June 2006
Is the Thermohaline Circulation Changing? journal September 2006
Climate Response to Basin-Scale Warming and Cooling of the North Atlantic Ocean journal March 2007
A Hemispheric Mechanism for the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation journal June 2007
The Influence of a Weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation on ENSO journal October 2007
Enhancement of ENSO Variability by a Weakened Atlantic Thermohaline Circulation in a Coupled GCM journal October 2007
Topographic Coupling of the Atlantic Overturning and Gyre Circulations journal May 2015
The Role of Bottom Vortex Stretching on the Path of the North Atlantic Western Boundary Current and on the Northern Recirculation Gyre journal August 2007
Impact of Labrador Sea Convection on the North Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation journal September 2007
Response of the atmosphere–ocean mixed-layer system to anomalous ocean heat-flux convergence journal April 2002
Imprint of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Tree-Ring Widths in Northeastern Asia since 1568 journal July 2011
Climate based multi-year predictions of the Barents Sea cod stock journal October 2018
The influence of a weakening of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation on ENSO text January 2007
Amplification of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation associated with the onset of the industrial-era warming text January 2017
Synchronous retreat and acceleration of southeast Greenland outlet glaciers 2000–06: ice dynamics and coupling to climate journal January 2008
Stochastic climate models, Part II Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability journal January 1977
Sea surface temperature anomalies in the North Pacific Ocean journal January 1978
A coupled ocean-atmosphere model of relevance to the ITCZ in the eastern Pacific journal January 1994
Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability journal January 2004
Arctic climate change: observed and modelled temperature and sea-ice variability journal January 2004
The relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall and Atlantic multidecadal variability over the last 500 years journal December 2016
Insights into Atlantic multidecadal variability using the Last Millennium Reanalysis framework journal January 2018
Volcanic impact on the Atlantic ocean over the last millennium journal January 2011
The role of subpolar deep water formation and Nordic Seas overflows in simulated multidecadal variability of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation journal January 2014
Observed decline of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation 2004–2012 journal January 2014
Compensation between meridional flow components of the Atlantic MOC at 26° N journal January 2016
North Atlantic 20th century multidecadal variability in coupled climate models: sea surface temperature and ocean overturning circulation journal January 2011
The emergence of surface-based Arctic amplification journal January 2009
The early twentieth century warming and winter Arctic sea ice journal January 2012
A U.S. CLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results text January 2009

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Regional Climate Impacts of Future Changes in the Mid–Latitude Atmospheric Circulation: a Storyline View journal November 2019
Spring Aleutian Low Weakening and Surface Cooling Trend in Northwest North America During Recent Decades journal November 2019
Structure and Performance of GFDL's CM4.0 Climate Model journal November 2019
The Community Earth System Model Version 2 (CESM2) journal February 2020
CMIP5 Climate Models Overestimate Cooling by Volcanic Aerosols journal February 2020

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