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Title: The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity

Journal Article · · Journal of Climate
ORCiD logo [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5]
  1. Climate and Ecosystem Sciences Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, California
  2. Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Columbia University, Palisades, New York
  3. Department of Atmospheric Science, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado
  4. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas
  5. Department of Oceanography and Department of Atmospheric Sciences, Texas A&M University, College Station, Texas, and Physical Oceanography Laboratory/Qingdao Collaborative Innovation Center of Marine Science and Technology, Ocean University of China, Qingdao, China
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© 2018 American Meteorological Society. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major source of seasonal western North Pacific (WNP) tropical cyclone (TC) predictability. However, the spatial characteristics of ENSO have changed in recent decades, from warming more typically in the eastern equatorial Pacific during canonical or cold tongue El Niño to warming more typically in the central equatorial Pacific during noncanonical or warm pool El Niño. We investigated the response in basinwide WNP TC activity and spatial clustering of TC tracks to the location and magnitude of El Niño using observations, TC-permitting tropical channel model simulations, and a TC track clustering methodology. We found that simulated western North Pacific TC activity, including accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and the number of typhoons and intense typhoons, is more effectively enhanced by sea surface temperature warming of the central, compared to the eastern, equatorial Pacific. El Niño also considerably influenced simulated TC tracks regionally, with a decrease in TCs that were generated near the Asian continent and an increase in clusters that were dominated by TC genesis in the southeastern WNP. This response corresponds with the spatial pattern of reduced vertical wind shear and is most effectively driven by central Pacific SST warming. Finally, internal atmospheric variability generated a substantial range in the simulated season total ACE (±25% of the median). However, extremely active WNP seasons were linked with El Niño, rather than internal atmospheric variability, in both observations and climate model simulations.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). National Energy Research Scientific Computing Center (NERSC)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC), Biological and Environmental Research (BER); National Science Foundation (NSF)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC02-05CH11231; NA15OAR43100095; NA16OAR4310079; AGS-1347808; AGS-1067937; 41222037; 41221063
OSTI ID:
1454343
Alternate ID(s):
OSTI ID: 1544295; OSTI ID: 1563955
Journal Information:
Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Vol. 31 Journal Issue: 14; ISSN 0894-8755
Publisher:
American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 63 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

Cited By (7)

The Influence of ENSO Flavors on Western North Pacific Tropical Cyclone Activity text January 2018
Simulated ENSO's impact on tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific in CMIP5 models and its changes under global warming journal February 2019
Interannual and interdecadal impact of Western North Pacific Subtropical High on tropical cyclone activity journal January 2020
Projected changes in ENSO-driven regional tropical cyclone tracks journal January 2020
Tropical cyclone damages in Mainland China over 2005–2016: losses analysis and implications journal October 2019
High‐Resolution Ensemble Simulations of Intense Tropical Cyclones and Their Internal Variability During the El Niños of 1997 and 2015 journal July 2019
On the Mechanisms of the Active 2018 Tropical Cyclone Season in the North Pacific journal November 2019

Figures / Tables (21)

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Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
North Pacific Ocean
ENSO
Tropical cyclones
Climate prediction
Climate variability