Insights into Earth’s Energy Imbalance from Multiple Sources

Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; von Schuckmann, Karina; Cheng, Lijing

doi:10.1175/jcli-d-16-0339.1

Insights into Earth’s Energy Imbalance from Multiple Sources

Journal Article · Sat Oct 01 00:00:00 EDT 2016 · Journal of Climate

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-16-0339.1· OSTI ID:1537015

Trenberth, Kevin E. ^[1]; Fasullo, John T. ^[2]; von Schuckmann, Karina ^[3]; Cheng, Lijing ^[4]

National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); DOE/OSTI
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Mercator Ocean, Ramonville St. Agne (France)
Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)

The current Earth’s energy imbalance (EEI) can best be estimated from changes in ocean heat content (OHC), complemented by top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements and an assessment of the small non-ocean components. Sustained observations from the Argo array of autonomous profiling floats enable near-global estimates of OHC since 2005, which reveal considerable cancellation of variations in the upper 300 m. An analysis of the monthly contributions to EEI from non-ocean components (land and ice) using the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble reveals standard deviations of 0.3–0.4 W m^-2 (global); largest values occur in August, but values are below 0.75 W m^-2 greater than 95% of the time. Global standard deviations of EEI of 0.64 W m^-2 based on top-of-atmosphere observations therefore substantially constrain ocean contributions, given by the tendencies of OHC. Instead, monthly standard deviations of many Argo-based OHC tendencies are 6–13 W m^-2, and nonphysical fluctuations are clearly evident. It is shown that an ocean reanalysis with multivariate dynamical data assimilation features much better agreement with TOA radiation, and 44% of the vertically integrated short-term OHC trend for 2005–14 of 0.8 ± 0.2 W m^-2 (globally) occurs below 700-m depth. Largest warming occurs from 20° to 50°S, especially over the southern oceans, and near 40°N in all ocean analyses. The EEI is estimated to be 0.9 ± 0.3 W m^-2 for 2005–14.

View Accepted Manuscript (DOE)

Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: SC0012711

OSTI ID:: 1537015

Journal Information:: Journal of Climate, Journal Name: Journal of Climate Journal Issue: 20 Vol. 29; ISSN 0894-8755

Publisher:: American Meteorological SocietyCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

References (45)

Argo float data and metadata from Global Data Assembly Centre (Argo GDAC) Fumihiko, Akazawa; Turki, Alraddadi; Pascual, Ananda https://doi.org/10.17882/42182	dataset	January 2018
Estimates of the Southern Ocean general circulation improved by animal‐borne instruments Roquet, Fabien; Wunsch, Carl; Forget, Gael Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013GL058304	journal	December 2013
EN4: Quality controlled ocean temperature and salinity profiles and monthly objective analyses with uncertainty estimates: THE EN4 DATA SET Good, Simon A.; Martin, Matthew J.; Rayner, Nick A. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 118, Issue 12 https://doi.org/10.1002/2013JC009067	journal	December 2013
Climate variability and relationships between top-of-atmosphere radiation and temperatures on Earth: VARIATIONS IN TEMPERATURES AND RADIATION Trenberth, Kevin E.; Zhang, Yongxin; Fasullo, John T. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/2014JD022887	journal	May 2015
Relationships among top‐of‐atmosphere radiation and atmospheric state variables in observations and CESM Trenberth, Kevin E.; Zhang, Yongxin; Fasullo, John T. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, Vol. 120, Issue 19 https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023381	journal	October 2015
Distinctive climate signals in reanalysis of global ocean heat content: SIGNALS IN OCEAN HEAT CONTENT Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Källén, Erland Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 40, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1002/grl.50382	journal	May 2013
Evaluation of the ECMWF ocean reanalysis system ORAS4 Balmaseda, Magdalena Alonso; Mogensen, Kristian; Weaver, Anthony T. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 139, Issue 674 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.2063	journal	December 2012
A review of global ocean temperature observations: Implications for ocean heat content estimates and climate change: REVIEW OF OCEAN OBSERVATIONS Abraham, J. P.; Baringer, M.; Bindoff, N. L. Reviews of Geophysics, Vol. 51, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1002/rog.20022	journal	September 2013
Arctic sea ice in the global eddy-permitting ocean reanalysis ORAP5 Tietsche, Steffen; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Zuo, Hao Climate Dynamics, Vol. 49, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2673-3	journal	June 2015
The new eddy-permitting ORAP5 ocean reanalysis: description, evaluation and uncertainties in climate signals Zuo, Hao; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Mogensen, Kristian Climate Dynamics, Vol. 49, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2675-1	journal	June 2015
Ocean heat content variability and change in an ensemble of ocean reanalyses Palmer, M. D.; Roberts, C. D.; Balmaseda, M. Climate Dynamics, Vol. 49, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2801-0	journal	September 2015
Improved description of global mixed-layer depth using Argo profiling floats Hosoda, Shigeki; Ohira, Tsuyoshi; Sato, Kanako Journal of Oceanography, Vol. 66, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10872-010-0063-3	journal	December 2010
An imperative for climate change planning: tracking Earth's global energy Trenberth, Kevin E. Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, Vol. 1, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cosust.2009.06.001	journal	October 2009
The 2004–2008 mean and annual cycle of temperature, salinity, and steric height in the global ocean from the Argo Program Roemmich, Dean; Gilson, John Progress in Oceanography, Vol. 82, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.pocean.2009.03.004	journal	August 2009
Climate Change 2013 – The Physical Science Basis No authors listed https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324	book	March 2014
Assessing the globally averaged sea level budget on seasonal to interannual timescales Willis, Josh K.; Chambers, Don P.; Nerem, R. Steven Journal of Geophysical Research, Vol. 113, Issue C6 https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JC004517	journal	January 2008
The global ocean imprint of ENSO: THE GLOBAL OCEAN IMPRINT OF ENSO Roemmich, Dean; Gilson, John Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL047992	journal	July 2011
Revisiting the Earth's sea-level and energy budgets from 1961 to 2008: SEA-LEVEL AND ENERGY BUDGETS Church, John A.; White, Neil J.; Konikow, Leonard F. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 38, Issue 18 https://doi.org/10.1029/2011GL048794	journal	September 2011
Deep-ocean contribution to sea level and energy budget not detectable over the past decade Llovel, W.; Willis, J. K.; Landerer, F. W. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 4, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2387	journal	October 2014
Unabated planetary warming and its ocean structure since 2006 Roemmich, Dean; Church, John; Gilson, John Nature Climate Change, Vol. 5, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2513	journal	February 2015
Fifteen years of ocean observations with the global Argo array Riser, Stephen C.; Freeland, Howard J.; Roemmich, Dean Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2872	journal	January 2016
An imperative to monitor Earth's energy imbalance von Schuckmann, K.; Palmer, M. D.; Trenberth, K. E. Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2876	journal	January 2016
Ocean temperatures chronicle the ongoing warming of Earth Wijffels, Susan; Roemmich, Dean; Monselesan, Didier Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2924	journal	January 2016
Stronger ocean circulation and increased melting under Pine Island Glacier ice shelf Jacobs, Stanley S.; Jenkins, Adrian; Giulivi, Claudia F. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 4, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1188	journal	June 2011
Observed changes in top-of-the-atmosphere radiation and upper-ocean heating consistent within uncertainty Loeb, Norman G.; Lyman, John M.; Johnson, Gregory C. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 5, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1375	journal	January 2012
Important role for ocean warming and increased ice-shelf melt in Antarctic sea-ice expansion Bintanja, R.; van Oldenborgh, G. J.; Drijfhout, S. S. Nature Geoscience, Vol. 6, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1038/ngeo1767	journal	March 2013
Revisiting the contemporary sea-level budget on global and regional scales Rietbroek, Roelof; Brunnabend, Sandra-Esther; Kusche, Jürgen Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 113, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1519132113	journal	January 2016
The Ocean Reanalyses Intercomparison Project (ORA-IP) Balmaseda, M. A.; Hernandez, F.; Storto, A. Journal of Operational Oceanography, Vol. 8, Issue sup1 https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876X.2015.1022329	journal	April 2015
Tracking Earth's Energy Trenberth, K. E.; Fasullo, J. T. Science, Vol. 328, Issue 5976 https://doi.org/10.1126/science.1187272	journal	April 2010
Toward Optimal Closure of the Earth's Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Budget Loeb, Norman G.; Wielicki, Bruce A.; Doelling, David R. Journal of Climate, Vol. 22, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JCLI2637.1	journal	February 2009
In Situ Data Biases and Recent Ocean Heat Content Variability* Willis, Josh K.; Lyman, John M.; Johnson, Gregory C. Journal of Atmospheric and Oceanic Technology, Vol. 26, Issue 4 https://doi.org/10.1175/2008JTECHO608.1	journal	April 2009
Warming of Global Abyssal and Deep Southern Ocean Waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to Global Heat and Sea Level Rise Budgets Purkey, Sarah G.; Johnson, Gregory C. Journal of Climate, Vol. 23, Issue 23 https://doi.org/10.1175/2010JCLI3682.1	journal	December 2010
The Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble Project: A Community Resource for Studying Climate Change in the Presence of Internal Climate Variability Kay, J. E.; Deser, C.; Phillips, A. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 96, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-13-00255.1	journal	August 2015
XBT Science: Assessment of Instrumental Biases and Errors Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Goni, Gustavo Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, Vol. 97, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-15-00031.1	journal	June 2016
A Comparative Analysis of Upper-Ocean Heat Content Variability from an Ensemble of Operational Ocean Reanalyses Xue, Yan; Balmaseda, Magdalena A.; Boyer, Tim Journal of Climate, Vol. 25, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-11-00542.1	journal	October 2012
Regional Energy and Water Cycles: Transports from Ocean to Land Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T. Journal of Climate, Vol. 26, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00008.1	journal	October 2013
Earth’s Energy Imbalance Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John T.; Balmaseda, Magdalena A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 27, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-13-00294.1	journal	May 2014
Benefits of CMIP5 Multimodel Ensemble in Reconstructing Historical Ocean Subsurface Temperature Variations Cheng, Lijing; Zhu, Jiang Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 15 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0730.1	journal	August 2016
Sensitivity of Global Upper-Ocean Heat Content Estimates to Mapping Methods, XBT Bias Corrections, and Baseline Climatologies Boyer, Tim; Domingues, Catia M.; Good, Simon A. Journal of Climate, Vol. 29, Issue 13 https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-15-0801.1	journal	July 2016
Global Upper Ocean Heat Content Estimation: Recent Progress and the Remaining Challenges Li-Jing, Cheng; Jiang, Zhu; Abraham, John Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, Vol. 8, Issue 6, 333-338 https://doi.org/10.3878/AOSL20150031	journal	November 2015
Earth's energy imbalance and implications Hansen, J.; Sato, M.; Kharecha, P. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, Vol. 11, Issue 24 https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-11-13421-2011	journal	January 2011
Consistency of the current global ocean observing systems from an Argo perspective von Schuckmann, K.; Sallée, J. -B.; Chambers, D. Ocean Science, Vol. 10, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-10-547-2014	journal	January 2014
How well can we derive Global Ocean Indicators from Argo data? von Schuckmann, K.; Le Traon, P. -Y. Ocean Science, Vol. 7, Issue 6 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-7-783-2011	journal	January 2011
The CORA dataset: validation and diagnostics of in-situ ocean temperature and salinity measurements Cabanes, C.; Grouazel, A.; von Schuckmann, K. Ocean Science, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.5194/os-9-1-2013	journal	January 2013
Argo: The Challenge of Continuing 10 Years of Progress Roemmich, Dean; Belbéoch, Mathieu; Freeland, Howard Oceanography, Vol. 22, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5670/oceanog.2009.65	journal	September 2009

Cited By (25)

Uncertainties in Steric Sea Level Change Estimation During the Satellite Altimeter Era: Concepts and Practices MacIntosh, C. R.; Merchant, C. J.; von Schuckmann, K. Surveys in Geophysics, Vol. 38, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1007/s10712-016-9387-x	journal	October 2016
Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition Resplandy, L.; Keeling, R. F.; Eddebbar, Y. Nature, Vol. 563, Issue 7729 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41586-018-0651-8	journal	October 2018
Climate-change–driven accelerated sea-level rise detected in the altimeter era Nerem, R. S.; Beckley, B. D.; Fasullo, J. T. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, Vol. 115, Issue 9 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1717312115	journal	February 2018
The global warming hiatus: Slowdown or redistribution?: THE GLOBAL WARMING HIATUS Yan, Xiao-Hai; Boyer, Tim; Trenberth, Kevin Earth's Future, Vol. 4, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016ef000417	journal	November 2016
Seasonal constraints on inferred planetary heat content: SEASONALLY CONSTRAINED HEAT BUDGET McKinnon, Karen A.; Huybers, Peter Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 43, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071055	journal	October 2016
As El Niño builds, Pacific Warm Pool expands, ocean gains more heat: ENSO, the Ocean, and Earth's Energy Uptake Johnson, Gregory C.; Birnbaum, Abigail N. Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl071767	journal	January 2017
Constraining the Global Ocean Heat Content Through Assimilation of CERES-Derived TOA Energy Imbalance Estimates: Assimilating CERES Energy Imbalance Data Storto, Andrea; Yang, Chunxue; Masina, Simona Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 20 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017gl075396	journal	October 2017
Improved Global Net Surface Heat Flux Carton, James A.; Chepurin, Gennady A.; Chen, Ligan Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 123, Issue 5 https://doi.org/10.1002/2017jc013137	journal	May 2018
Record-Setting Ocean Warmth Continued in 2019 Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John; Zhu, Jiang Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, Vol. 37, Issue 2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-020-9283-7	journal	January 2020
Consensuses and discrepancies of basin-scale ocean heat content changes in different ocean analyses Wang, Gongjie; Cheng, Lijing; Abraham, John Climate Dynamics, Vol. 50, Issue 7-8 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3751-5	journal	June 2017
The added value of the multi-system spread information for ocean heat content and steric sea level investigations in the CMEMS GREP ensemble reanalysis product Storto, Andrea; Masina, Simona; Simoncelli, Simona Climate Dynamics, Vol. 53, Issue 1-2 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4585-5	journal	December 2018
Predictability of Ocean Heat Content From Electrical Conductance Trossman, D. S.; Tyler, R. H. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, Vol. 124, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jc014740	journal	January 2019
Reconciling controversies about the ‘global warming hiatus’ Medhaug, Iselin; Stolpe, Martin B.; Fischer, Erich M. Nature, Vol. 545, Issue 7652 https://doi.org/10.1038/nature22315	journal	May 2017
Quantification of ocean heat uptake from changes in atmospheric O2 and CO2 composition Resplandy, L.; Keeling, R. F.; Eddebbar, Y. Scientific Reports, Vol. 9, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-56490-z	journal	December 2019
The Copernicus Marine Environment Monitoring Service Ocean State Report von Schuckmann, Karina; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves; Alvarez-Fanjul, Enrique Journal of Operational Oceanography, Vol. 9, Issue sup2 https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876x.2016.1273446	journal	September 2016
Copernicus Marine Service Ocean State Report von Schuckmann, Karina; Le Traon, Pierre-Yves; Smith, Neville Journal of Operational Oceanography, Vol. 11, Issue sup1 https://doi.org/10.1080/1755876x.2018.1489208	journal	August 2018
Quantifying human contributions to past and future ocean warming and thermosteric sea level rise Tokarska, Katarzyna B.; Hegerl, Gabriele C.; Schurer, Andrew P. Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 14, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/ab23c1	journal	July 2019
Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015 Cheng, Lijing; Trenberth, Kevin E.; Fasullo, John Science Advances, Vol. 3, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.1601545	journal	March 2017
Ocean Reanalyses: Recent Advances and Unsolved Challenges Storto, Andrea; Alvera-Azcárate, Aida; Balmaseda, Magdalena A. Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00418	journal	July 2019
Measuring Global Ocean Heat Content to Estimate the Earth Energy Imbalance Meyssignac, Benoit; Boyer, Tim; Zhao, Zhongxiang Frontiers in Marine Science, Vol. 6 https://doi.org/10.3389/fmars.2019.00432	journal	August 2019
RAVAN: CubeSat Demonstration for Multi-Point Earth Radiation Budget Measurements Swartz, William; Lorentz, Steven; Papadakis, Stergios Remote Sensing, Vol. 11, Issue 7 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs11070796	journal	April 2019
Measurement of the Earth Radiation Budget at the Top of the Atmosphere—A Review Dewitte, Steven; Clerbaux, Nicolas Remote Sensing, Vol. 9, Issue 11 https://doi.org/10.3390/rs9111143	journal	November 2017
Analysis algorithm for sky type and ice halo recognition in all-sky images Boyd, Sylke; Sorenson, Stephen; Richard, Shelby Atmospheric Measurement Techniques, Vol. 12, Issue 8 https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-12-4241-2019	journal	January 2019
Analysis Algorithm for Sky Type and Ice Halo Recognition in All-Sky Images Boyd, Sylke; Sorenson, Stephen; Richard, Shelby Atmospheric Measurement Techniques Discussions https://doi.org/10.5194/amt-2018-401	posted_content	January 2019
Young people's burden: requirement of negative CO ₂ emissions Hansen, James; Sato, Makiko; Kharecha, Pushker Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 8, Issue 3 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-8-577-2017	journal	January 2017

Similar Records

Improved estimates of ocean heat content from 1960 to 2015

Journal Article · Thu Mar 09 19:00:00 EST 2017 · Science Advances · OSTI ID:1425658

Observed and simulated full-depth ocean heat-content changes for 1970–2005

Journal Article · Mon Jul 25 20:00:00 EDT 2016 · Ocean Science · OSTI ID:1272636

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES
Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences

Insights into Earth’s Energy Imbalance from Multiple Sources

Citation Formats

References (45)

Cited By (25)

Similar Records

Related Subjects