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Dryland climate change: Recent progress and challenges: Dryland Climate Change

Journal Article · · Reviews of Geophysics (1985)
DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016rg000550· OSTI ID:1532993
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [10];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [4];  [11];  [12];  [4] more »;  [4] « less
  1. Lanzhou Univ. (China); DOE/OSTI
  2. Lanzhou Univ. (China); Shenyang Agricultural Univ. (China)
  3. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China); Nanjing Univ. (China)
  4. Lanzhou Univ. (China)
  5. Lanzhou Univ. (China); Univ. of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States)
  6. Univ. at Albany, NY (United States)
  7. Nagoya Univ. (Japan)
  8. Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Beijing (China)
  9. Nanjing Univ. of Technology (China). State Key Lab. of Materials-Oriented Chemical Engineering (MCE)
  10. Univ. of Maryland, College Park, MD (United States); Beijing Normal Univ. (China)
  11. Sun Yan-sen Univ., Guangzhou (China)
  12. Key Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Reducing Disaster of Gansu Province and Key Open Laboratory of Arid Climatic Change and Disaster Reduction of CMA, Institute of Arid Meteorology, CMA, Lanzhou (China)
Drylands are home to more than 38% of the world's population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities. This review describes recent progress in dryland climate change research. Recent findings indicate that the long-term trend of the aridity index (AI) is mainly attributable to increased greenhouse gas emissions, while anthropogenic aerosols exert small effects but alter its attributions. Atmosphere-land interactions determine the intensity of regional response. The largest warming during the last 100 years was observed over drylands and accounted for more than half of the continental warming. The global pattern and interdecadal variability of aridity changes are modulated by oceanic oscillations. The different phases of those oceanic oscillations induce significant changes in land-sea and north-south thermal contrasts, which affect the intensity of the westerlies and planetary waves and the blocking frequency, thereby altering global changes in temperature and precipitation. During 1948–2008, the drylands in the Americas became wetter due to enhanced westerlies, whereas the drylands in the Eastern Hemisphere became drier because of the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Drylands as defined by the AI have expanded over the last 60 years and are projected to expand in the 21st century. The largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semiarid regions since the early 1960s. Dryland expansion will lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming, and rapidly growing population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in developing countries.
Research Organization:
State Univ. of New York (SUNY), Albany, NY (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC)
Grant/Contract Number:
SC0012602
OSTI ID:
1532993
Journal Information:
Reviews of Geophysics (1985), Journal Name: Reviews of Geophysics (1985) Journal Issue: 3 Vol. 55; ISSN 8755-1209
Publisher:
American Geophysical Union (AGU)Copyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

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CLIMATE CHANGE: Is the Hydrological Cycle Accelerating? journal November 2002
The Perfect Ocean for Drought journal January 2003
Oceanic Forcing of Sahel Rainfall on Interannual to Interdecadal Time Scales journal November 2003
African Droughts and Dust Transport to the Caribbean: Climate Change Implications journal November 2003
Smoking Rain Clouds over the Amazon journal February 2004
Regions of Strong Coupling Between Soil Moisture and Precipitation journal August 2004
Self-Organized Patchiness and Catastrophic Shifts in Ecosystems journal September 2004
Long-Term Aridity Changes in the Western United States journal November 2004
The Holocene Asian Monsoon: Links to Solar Changes and North Atlantic Climate journal May 2005
Enhanced Mid-Latitude Tropospheric Warming in Satellite Measurements journal May 2006
Global Desertification: Building a Science for Dryland Development journal May 2007
Model Projections of an Imminent Transition to a More Arid Climate in Southwestern North America journal May 2007
How Much More Rain Will Global Warming Bring? journal July 2007
The Role of Aerosols in the Evolution of Tropical North Atlantic Ocean Temperature Anomalies journal March 2009
Contribution of Semi-Arid Forests to the Climate System journal January 2010
Asian Monsoon Failure and Megadrought During the Last Millennium journal April 2010
Dust and Biological Aerosols from the Sahara and Asia Influence Precipitation in the Western U.S. journal February 2013
A Drier Future? journal February 2014
Aerosols, Cloud Microphysics, and Fractional Cloudiness journal September 1989
The dominant role of semi-arid ecosystems in the trend and variability of the land CO2 sink journal May 2015
Satellites reveal contrasting responses of regional climate to the widespread greening of Earth journal May 2017
Modulation of ENSO-Based Long-Lead Outlooks of Southwestern U.S. Winter Precipitation by the Pacific Decadal Oscillation journal December 2002
The Influence of Land Surface Properties on Sahel Climate. Part 1: Desertification journal December 1993
Interpretation of Interdecadal Trends in Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature journal February 1996
ENSO-like Interdecadal Variability: 1900–93 journal May 1997
Summertime U.S. Precipitation Variability and Its Relation toPacific Sea Surface Temperature journal August 1997
Surface Observed Global Land Precipitation Variations during 1900–88 journal November 1997
Drought Reconstructions for the Continental United States* journal April 1999
Subtropical Anticyclones and Summer Monsoons journal August 2001
The Influence of Land Use Change on Climate in the Sahel journal December 2002
Hemispheric and Large-Scale Surface Air Temperature Variations: An Extensive Revision and an Update to 2001 journal January 2003
AO, COWL, and Observed Climate Trends journal June 2004
A Self-Calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index journal June 2004
Observations of Saharan Aerosols: Results of ECLATS Field Experiment. Part II: Broadband Radiative Characteristics of the Aerosols and Vertical Radiative Flux Divergence journal January 1987
The Influence of Pollution on the Shortwave Albedo of Clouds journal July 1977
Multiple Flow Equilibria in the Atmosphere and Blocking journal July 1979
WMO's Role in the International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction journal September 1994
Interdecadal Modulation of ENSO Teleconnections journal December 1998
Climate Assessment for 2000 journal June 2001
Climate Assessment for 2001 journal June 2002
A Review of Twentieth-Century Drought Indices Used in the United States journal August 2002
The Quantification of Drought: An Evaluation of Drought Indices journal August 2002
Global Trends and Variability in Soil Moisture and Drought Characteristics, 1950–2000, from Observation-Driven Simulations of the Terrestrial Hydrologic Cycle journal February 2008
Evaluating Uncertainties in the Projection of Future Drought journal April 2008
Dewpoint and Humidity Measurements and Trends at the Summit of Mount Washington, New Hampshire, 1935–2004 journal November 2007
Response of the Zonal Mean Atmospheric Circulation to El Niño versus Global Warming journal November 2008
Evaluating the “Rich-Get-Richer” Mechanism in Tropical Precipitation Change under Global Warming journal April 2009
Hadley Cell Widening: Model Simulations versus Observations journal May 2009
Controls of Global-Mean Precipitation Increases in Global Warming GCM Experiments journal December 2008
Decadal Predictability of the Atlantic Ocean in a Coupled GCM: Forecast Skill and Optimal Perturbations Using Linear Inverse Modeling journal July 2009
Interferential Impact of ENSO and PDO on Dry and Wet Conditions in the U.S. Great Plains journal November 2009
Influence of ENSO and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation on Drought over the United States journal November 2009
A U.S. CLIVAR Project to Assess and Compare the Responses of Global Climate Models to Drought-Related SST Forcing Patterns: Overview and Results journal October 2009
Regional Precipitation Trends: Distinguishing Natural Variability from Anthropogenic Forcing journal April 2010
African Dust over the Northern Tropical Atlantic: 1955–2008 journal November 2010
Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming journal September 2010
A GEFA Assessment of Observed Global Ocean Influence on U.S. Precipitation Variability: Attribution to Regional SST Variability Modes journal February 2011
A New Global 0.5° Gridded Dataset (1901–2006) of a Multiscalar Drought Index: Comparison with Current Drought Index Datasets Based on the Palmer Drought Severity Index journal August 2010
Response of the Hadley Circulation to Climate Change in an Aquaplanet GCM Coupled to a Simple Representation of Ocean Heat Transport journal April 2011
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: The Main Driver of Twentieth-Century Atmospheric Circulation Changes in the Southern Hemisphere journal February 2011
Understanding the Sensitivity of Different Drought Metrics to the Drivers of Drought under Increased Atmospheric CO 2 journal December 2011
Performance of Drought Indices for Ecological, Agricultural, and Hydrological Applications journal September 2012
The Impact of the Saharan Air Layer on Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity journal March 2004
Aerosol Effects on Microstructure and Intensity of Tropical Cyclones journal July 2012
Climate Variability and Change since 850 CE: An Ensemble Approach with the Community Earth System Model journal May 2016
Trends in Total Precipitation and Frequency of Daily Precipitation Extremes over China journal April 2005
Poleward Shift of Subtropical Jets Inferred from Satellite-Observed Lower-Stratospheric Temperatures journal November 2011
Climate System Response to External Forcings and Climate Change Projections in CCSM4 journal June 2012
Twenty-First-Century Multimodel Subtropical Precipitation Declines Are Mostly Midlatitude Shifts journal June 2012
AMO- and ENSO-Driven Summertime Circulation and Precipitation Variations in North America journal October 2012
Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing journal July 2013
Spatial Gradients in Aerosol-Induced Atmospheric Heating and Surface Dimming over the Oceanic Regions around India: Anthropogenic or Natural? journal October 2013
Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium journal January 2014
Scaling Potential Evapotranspiration with Greenhouse Warming journal February 2014
Multidecadal Variability of North China Aridity and Its Relationship to PDO during 1900–2010 journal February 2014
Contrasting Climate Responses to the Scattering and Absorbing Features of Anthropogenic Aerosol Forcings journal July 2014
Dynamical Adjustment of the Northern Hemisphere Surface Air Temperature Field: Methodology and Application to Observations journal February 2015
The Magnitude and Causes of Global Drought Changes in the Twenty-First Century under a Low–Moderate Emissions Scenario journal June 2015
Terrestrial Aridity and Its Response to Greenhouse Warming across CMIP5 Climate Models journal July 2015
Characterizing the Hadley Circulation Response through Regional Climate Feedbacks journal January 2016
Impact of Ural Blocking on Winter Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasian Anomalies. Part I: Blocking-Induced Amplification journal June 2016
Impact of Ural Blocking on Winter Warm Arctic–Cold Eurasian Anomalies. Part II: The Link to the North Atlantic Oscillation journal June 2016
Increased Quasi Stationarity and Persistence of Winter Ural Blocking and Eurasian Extreme Cold Events in Response to Arctic Warming. Part I: Insights from Observational Analyses journal May 2017
Increased Quasi Stationarity and Persistence of Winter Ural Blocking and Eurasian Extreme Cold Events in Response to Arctic Warming. Part II: A Theoretical Explanation journal May 2017
On the Discrepancies in Tropical Belt Expansion between Reanalyses and Climate Models and among Tropical Belt Width Metrics journal February 2017
Modeling of Tropical Forcing of Persistent Droughts and Pluvials over Western North America: 1856–2000 journal October 2005
Detection and Attribution of Twentieth-Century Northern and Southern African Rainfall Change journal August 2006
Robust Responses of the Hydrological Cycle to Global Warming journal November 2006
PDO–ENSO Effects in the Climate of Mexico journal December 2006
Impact of Desert Dust Radiative Forcing on Sahel Precipitation: Relative Importance of Dust Compared to Sea Surface Temperature Variations, Vegetation Changes, and Greenhouse Gas Warming journal April 2007
Modeled Impact of Anthropogenic Land Cover Change on Climate journal July 2007
Hydroclimatic Trends in the Mississippi River Basin from 1948 to 2004 journal September 2007
A Global Dataset of Palmer Drought Severity Index for 1870–2002: Relationship with Soil Moisture and Effects of Surface Warming journal December 2004
Simulation of Global Land Surface Conditions from 1948 to 2004. Part I: Forcing Data and Evaluations journal October 2006
A Gray-Radiation Aquaplanet Moist GCM. Part I: Static Stability and Eddy Scale journal October 2006
Eddy Influences on Hadley Circulations: Simulations with an Idealized GCM journal December 2006
The Hadley Circulation in Reanalyses: Climatology, Variability, and Change journal May 2013
The Atmospheric Energy Constraint on Global-Mean Precipitation Change journal January 2014
Expansion of the Southern Hemisphere Hadley Cell in Response to Greenhouse Gas Forcing journal October 2015
Global Warming and the Weakening of the Tropical Circulation journal September 2007
A 700-year history of groundwater recharge in the drylands of NW China journal November 2008
Association of the Northern Hemisphere circumglobal teleconnection with the Asian summer monsoon during the Holocene in a transient simulation journal August 2015
Impact of climate change on arid lands agriculture journal April 2012
1300 years of climatic history for Western Central Asia inferred from tree-rings journal April 2002
Late-Holocene dune activity linked to hydrological drought, Nebraska Sand Hills, USA journal February 2004
High-resolution palaeoclimatic records for the last millennium: interpretation, integration and comparison with General Circulation Model control-run temperatures journal May 1998
On CO2 climate sensitivity and model dependence of results journal January 1987
The Impact of Climate Change on Ecosystem Carbon Dynamics at the Scandinavian Mountain Birch Forest–Tundra Heath Ecotone journal February 2009
Dryland hydrology in Mediterranean regions—a review journal December 2007
Accumulation Rates over the Past 500 Years Recorded in Ice Cores from the Northern and Southern Tibetan Plateau, China journal November 2007
Desertification, land use, and the transformation of global drylands
  • Bestelmeyer, Brandon T.; Okin, Gregory S.; Duniway, Michael C.
  • Frontiers in Ecology and the Environment, Vol. 13, Issue 1 https://doi.org/10.1890/140162
journal February 2015
Radiative Forcing of Asian Dust Determined from the Synergized GOME and GMS Satellite Data—A Case Study journal January 2006
Effects of Soil and Land Surface Conditions in Summer on Dust Outbreaks in the Following Spring in a Mongolian Grassland journal January 2011
An Approach toward a Rational Classification of Climate journal January 1948
Aridity Definitions and Their Applicability journal January 1967
A 1000 year climate ice-core record from the Guliya ice cap, China: its relationship to global climate variability journal January 1995
Global changes in a humidity index between 1931-60 and 1961-90 journal January 1992
Radiative and climatic effects of dust over West Africa, as simulated by a regional climate model journal March 2012
Decadal Variations in NDVI and Food Production in India journal March 2010
Dynamic Hydrological Modeling in Drylands with TRMM Based Rainfall journal December 2013
Quantitative Assessment of Desertification Using Landsat Data on a Regional Scale – A Case Study in the Ordos Plateau, China journal March 2009
Warm Arctic—cold continents: climate impacts of the newly open Arctic Sea journal January 2011
Role of the convergence zone over West Africa in controlling Saharan mineral dust load and transport in the boreal summer journal January 2014
Aerosol-induced changes of convective cloud anvils produce strong climate warming journal January 2010
Dust aerosol effect on semi-arid climate over Northwest China detected from A-Train satellite measurements journal January 2010
Enhanced cold-season warming in semi-arid regions journal January 2012
Expansion of global drylands under a warming climate journal January 2013
Aerosol impacts on California winter clouds and precipitation during CalWater 2011: local pollution versus long-range transported dust journal January 2014
Detection of anthropogenic dust using CALIPSO lidar measurements journal January 2015
Role of radiatively forced temperature changes in enhanced semi-arid warming in the cold season over east Asia journal January 2015
Ground-based aerosol climatology of China: aerosol optical depths from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) 2002–2013 journal January 2015
Increasing Arabian dust activity and the Indian summer monsoon journal January 2015
Taklimakan Desert nocturnal low-level jet: climatology and dust activity journal January 2016
Comparison of land–atmosphere interaction at different surface types in the mid- to lower reaches of the Yangtze River valley journal January 2016
Kinetics and mechanism of the uptake of N2O5 on mineral dust at 298 K journal January 2005
Global indirect aerosol effects: a review journal January 2005
The total ozone field separated into meteorological regimes – Part II: Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude total ozone trends journal January 2006
The effects of aerosols on precipitation and dimensions of subtropical clouds: a sensitivity study using a numerical cloud model journal January 2006
Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979 journal January 2007
Estimation of Asian dust aerosol effect on cloud radiation forcing using Fu-Liou radiative model and CERES measurements journal January 2008
Airborne dust distributions over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas derived from the first year of CALIPSO lidar observations journal January 2008
Taklimakan dust aerosol radiative heating derived from CALIPSO observations using the Fu-Liou radiation model with CERES constraints journal January 2009
Land use change suppresses precipitation journal January 2009
Trends in stratospheric ozone derived from merged SAGE II and Odin-OSIRIS satellite observations journal January 2014
Detection of anthropogenic dust using CALIPSO lidar measurements posted_content April 2015
Ground-based aerosol climatology of China: aerosol optical depths from the China Aerosol Remote Sensing Network (CARSNET) 2002–2013 journal January 2015
Global indirect aerosol effects: a review journal January 2004
Airborne dust distributions over the Tibetan Plateau and surrounding areas derived from the first year of CALIPSO lidar observations journal January 2008
Significant changes in subseries means and variances in an 8000-year precipitation reconstruction from tree rings in the southwestern USA journal January 2007
A GCM study of the response of the atmospheric water cycle of West Africa and the Atlantic to Saharan dust radiative forcing journal January 2009
Vegetation–climate feedbacks modulate rainfall patterns in Africa under future climate change journal January 2016
Dryland ecohydrology and climate change: critical issues and technical advances journal January 2012
Response of water vapour D-excess to land–atmosphere interactions in a semi-arid environment journal January 2017
Dryland ecohydrology and climate change: critical issues and technical advances posted_content April 2012
Land use change suppresses precipitation text January 2009
Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America text January 2007
Modeling of Tropical Forcing of Persistent Droughts and Pluvials over Western North America: 1856–2000 text January 2005
Stratospheric Ozone Depletion: The Main Driver of Twentieth-Century Atmospheric Circulation Changes in the Southern Hemisphere text January 2011
Thermodynamic and Dynamic Mechanisms for Large-Scale Changes in the Hydrological Cycle in Response to Global Warming text January 2010
Internal ocean-atmosphere variability drives megadroughts in Western North America text January 2016
Pan-Continental Droughts in North America over the Last Millennium text January 2014
Intensification of North American Megadroughts through Surface and Dust Aerosol Forcing text January 2013
North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations text January 2016
North American megadroughts in the Common Era: reconstructions and simulations text January 2016

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Changes in aridity and its driving factors in China during 1961-2016 journal September 2018
Comparison of extreme temperature response to 0.5 °C additional warming between dry and humid regions over East–central Asia journal February 2019
Cloud ability to produce precipitation over arid and semiarid regions of Central and East Asia journal September 2019
Progress in Semi-arid Climate Change Studies in China journal July 2019
Conversion features of evapotranspiration responding to climate warming in transitional climate regions in northern China journal August 2018
Drylands climate response to transient and stabilized 2 °C and 1.5 °C global warming targets journal June 2019
Structural changes and variability of the ITCZ induced by radiation–cloud–convection–circulation interactions: inferences from the Goddard Multi-scale Modeling Framework (GMMF) experiments journal October 2019
Spatial and temporal analysis of changes in temperature extremes in the non-monsoon region of China from 1961 to 2016 journal January 2019
Dryland agricultural environment and sustainable productivity journal March 2020
Climate Change and Drought: a Perspective on Drought Indices journal April 2018
Wetter Global Arid Regions Driven by Volcanic Eruptions journal December 2019
Spatial and temporal evolution of natural and anthropogenic dust events over northern China journal February 2018
Causation and information flow with respect to relative entropy journal July 2018
Datasets of meteorological drought events and risks for the developing countries in Eurasia journal January 2020
Organic amendment additions to rangelands: A meta‐analysis of multiple ecosystem outcomes journal January 2019
Robust ecological drought projections for drylands in the 21st century journal April 2020
Local and Regional Scale Evaluation of the Integrated Urban Land Model by Comparing with the Common Land Model journal January 2019
The archaeology and ethnoarchaeology of rain-fed cultivation in arid and hyper-arid North Africa journal August 2019
Spatiotemporal Analysis of Landsat-8 and Sentinel-2 Data to Support Monitoring of Dryland Ecosystems journal May 2018
Ozone enhancement due to the photodissociation of nitrous acid in eastern China journal January 2019

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