A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence: Model Projection Weighting Scheme

Knutti, Reto; Sedláček, Jan; Sanderson, Benjamin M.; Lorenz, Ruth; Fischer, Erich M.; Eyring, Veronika

doi:10.1002/2016gl072012

Title: A climate model projection weighting scheme accounting for performance and interdependence: Model Projection Weighting Scheme

Journal Article · Wed Feb 08 00:00:00 EST 2017 · Geophysical Research Letters

DOI:https://doi.org/10.1002/2016gl072012· OSTI ID:1532849

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National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States); ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
ETH Zurich (Switzerland)
National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)
Inst. für Physik der Atmosphäre, Oberpfaffenhofen (Germany). Deutsches Zentrum für Luft- und Raumfahrt (DLR)

Uncertainties of climate projections are routinely assessed by considering simulations from different models. Observations are used to evaluate models, yet there is a debate about whether and how to explicitly weight model projections by agreement with observations. Here we present a straightforward weighting scheme that accounts both for the large differences in model performance and for model interdependencies, and we test reliability in a perfect model setup. We provide weighted multimodel projections of Arctic sea ice and temperature as a case study to demonstrate that, for some questions at least, it is meaningless to treat all models equally. The constrained ensemble shows reduced spread and a more rapid sea ice decline than the unweighted ensemble. We argue that the growing number of models with different characteristics and considerable interdependence finally justifies abandoning strict model democracy, and we provide guidance on when and how this can be achieved robustly.

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Research Organization:: University Corporation for Atmospheric Research, Boulder, CO (United States)

Sponsoring Organization:: USDOE Office of Science (SC)

Grant/Contract Number:: FC02-97ER62402

OSTI ID:: 1532849

Journal Information:: Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 44, Issue 4; ISSN 0094-8276

Publisher:: American Geophysical UnionCopyright Statement

Country of Publication:: United States

Language:: English

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Cited by: 216 works

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