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Title: Impacts of half a degree additional warming on the Asian summer monsoon rainfall characteristics

Journal Article · · Environmental Research Letters
ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [1]; ORCiD logo [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6]
  1. Pohang Univ. of Science and Technology (POSTECH) (Korea, Republic of). Division of Environmental Science and Engineering
  2. Federal Inst. of Technology, Zurich (Switzerland). Inst. for Atmospheric and Climate Science
  3. National Inst. for Environmental Studies, Ibaraki (Japan)
  4. Bjerknes Center for Climate Research, Bergen (Norway). Uni Research Climate
  5. German Climate Computing Center (DKRZ), Hamburg (Germany)
  6. Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis, Victoria BC (Canada). Environment and Climate Change Canada
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This study investigates the impacts of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C above pre-industrial conditions (Paris Agreement target temperatures) on the South Asian and East Asian monsoon rainfall using five atmospheric global climate models participating in the 'Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts' (HAPPI) project. Mean and extreme precipitation is projected to increase under warming over the two monsoon regions, more strongly in the 2.0 °C warmer world. Moisture budget analysis shows that increases in evaporation and atmospheric moisture lead to the additional increases in mean precipitation with good inter-model agreement. Analysis of daily precipitation characteristics reveals that more-extreme precipitation will have larger increase in intensity and frequency responding to the half a degree additional warming, which is more clearly seen over the South Asian monsoon region, indicating non-linear scaling of precipitation extremes with temperature. Strong inter-model relationship between temperature and precipitation intensity further demonstrates that the increased moisture with warming (Clausius-Clapeyron relation) plays a critical role in the stronger intensification of more-extreme rainfall with warming. Lastly, results from CMIP5 coupled global climate models under a transient warming scenario confirm that half a degree additional warming would bring more frequent and stronger heavy precipitation events, exerting devastating impacts on the human and natural system over the Asian monsoon region.

Research Organization:
Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE Office of Science (SC); National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF); Bundesministerium fur Bildung und Forschung (BMBF)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC2-5CH11231
OSTI ID:
1523641
Journal Information:
Environmental Research Letters, Vol. 13, Issue 4; ISSN 1748-9326
Publisher:
IOP PublishingCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English
Citation Metrics:
Cited by: 41 works
Citation information provided by
Web of Science

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Cited By (7)

Role of Arabian Sea warming on the Indian summer monsoon rainfall in a regional climate model journal October 2019
Global Monsoon Changes under the Paris Agreement Temperature Goals in CESM1(CAM5) journal January 2019
Multi-RCM near-term projections of summer climate extremes over East Asia journal September 2018
Future changes in Indian summer monsoon characteristics under 1.5 and 2 °C specific warming levels journal October 2019
Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world journal March 2019
Scalability of future climate changes across Japan examined with large-ensemble simulations at + 1.5 K, +2 K, and + 4 K global warming levels journal June 2020
Event-to-event intensification of the hydrologic cycle from 1.5 °C to a 2 °C warmer world text January 2019

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