Skip to main content
OSTI.GOVU.S. Department of Energy Office of Scientific and Technical Information
U.S. Department of Energy
Office of Scientific and Technical Information
 

Cloud feedbacks in extratropical cyclones: insight from long-term satellite data and high-resolution global simulations

Journal Article · · Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online)
 [1];  [2];  [3];  [4];  [5];  [6];  [7];  [8];  [9];  [4];  [9];  [10];  [10];  [11];  [4];  [4];  [4]
  1. Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom). Inst. of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
  2. Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom). Inst. of Climate and Atmospheric Sciences; Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  3. Columbia Univ., New York, NY (United States). Dept. of Applied Physics and Applied Mathematics; NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States)
  4. Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
  5. California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States). Jet Propulsion Lab.
  6. Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States). Cloud Processes Research and Modeling Group
  7. Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan)
  8. Max Planck Inst. for Meteorology, Hamburg (Germany); Stockholm Univ. (Sweden). Dept. of Meteorology
  9. Univ. of Reading (United Kingdom). National Centre for Atmospheric Science-Climate. Dept. of Meteorology
  10. Météo-France, Toulouse (France). National Centre for Meteorological Research (CNRM)
  11. Royal Netherlands Meteorological Inst., De Bilt (Netherlands)
+ Show Author Affiliations
A negative extratropical shortwave cloud feedback driven by changes in cloud optical depth is a feature of global climate models (GCMs). A robust positive trend in observed liquid water path (LWP) over the last two decades across the warming Southern Ocean supports the negative shortwave cloud feedback predicted by GCMs. This feature has been proposed to be due to transitions from ice to liquid with warming. To gain insight into the shortwave cloud feedback we examine extratropical cyclone variability and the response of extratropical cyclones to transient warming in GCM simulations. Multi-Sensor Advanced Climatology Liquid Water Path (MAC-LWP) microwave observations of cyclone properties from the period 1992–2015 are contrasted with GCM simulations, with horizontal resolutions ranging from 7 km to hundreds of kilometers. We find that inter-cyclone variability in LWP in both observations and models is strongly driven by the moisture flux along the cyclone's warm conveyor belt (WCB). Stronger WCB moisture flux enhances the LWP within cyclones. This relationship is replicated in GCMs, although its strength varies substantially across models. It is found that more than 80 % of the enhancement in Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropical cyclone LWP in GCMs in response to a transient 4 K warming can be predicted based on the relationship between the WCB moisture flux and cyclone LWP in the historical climate and their change in moisture flux between the historical and warmed climates. Further, it is found that that the robust trend in cyclone LWP over the Southern Ocean in observations and GCMs is consistent with changes in the moisture flux. We propose two cloud feedbacks acting within extratropical cyclones: a negative feedback driven by Clausius–Clapeyron increasing water vapor path (WVP), which enhances the amount of water vapor available to be fluxed into the cyclone, and a feedback moderated by changes in the life cycle and vorticity of cyclones under warming, which changes the rate at which existing moisture is imported into the cyclone. Both terms contribute to increasing LWP within the cyclone. While changes in moisture flux predict cyclone LWP trends in the current climate and the majority of changes in LWP in transient warming simulations, a portion of the LWP increase in response to climate change that is unexplained by increasing moisture fluxes may be due to phase transitions. The variability in LWP within cyclone composites is examined to understand what cyclonic regimes the mixed-phase cloud feedback is relevant to. At a fixed WCB moisture flux cyclone LWP increases with increasing sea surface temperature (SST) in the half of the composite poleward of the low and decreases in the half equatorward of the low in both GCMs and observations. Cloud-top phase partitioning observed by the Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS) indicates that phase transitions may be driving increases in LWP in the poleward half of cyclones.
Research Organization:
Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); California Inst. of Technology (CalTech), Pasadena, CA (United States); NASA Goddard Inst. for Space Studies (GISS), New York, NY (United States); Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology, Yokohama (Japan); Univ. of Leeds (United Kingdom); Met Office, Exeter (United Kingdom)
Sponsoring Organization:
USDOE; National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) (United States); Japan Society for the Promotion of Science (JSPS); European Union (EU)
Grant/Contract Number:
AC52-07NA27344
OSTI ID:
1502016
Report Number(s):
LLNL-JRNL--755200; 942141
Journal Information:
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online), Journal Name: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics (Online) Journal Issue: 2 Vol. 19; ISSN 1680-7324
Publisher:
European Geosciences UnionCopyright Statement
Country of Publication:
United States
Language:
English

References (135)

The Met Office Hadley Centre sea ice and sea surface temperature data set, version 2: 1. Sea ice concentrations: HADISST.2.1.0.0 SEA ICE CONCENTRATIONS journal March 2014
Influence of cloud phase composition on climate feedbacks journal April 2014
Low-cloud optical depth feedback in climate models: Optical Depth Feedback journal May 2014
Spaceborne lidar observations of the ice-nucleating potential of dust, polluted dust, and smoke aerosols in mixed-phase clouds journal June 2014
Low cloud reduction in a greenhouse-warmed climate: Results from Lagrangian LES of a subtropical marine cloudiness transition: LAGRANGIAN BOUNDARY-LAYER CLOUD FEEDBACK journal February 2014
Influence of cloud phase composition on climate feedbacks journal April 2014
Impact of the sea surface temperature rise on storm-track clouds in global nonhydrostatic aqua planet simulations journal May 2014
How sensitive are aerosol-precipitation interactions to the warm rain representation?: RESPONSE OF ACI TO WARM RAIN SCHEME journal July 2015
Importance of snow to global precipitation: IMPORTANCE OF SNOW TO PRECIPITATION journal November 2015
Positive tropical marine low‐cloud cover feedback inferred from cloud‐controlling factors journal September 2015
Reducing the uncertainty in subtropical cloud feedback: REDUCING UNCERTAINTY OF CLOUD FEEDBACK journal March 2016
Observational evidence for a negative shortwave cloud feedback in middle to high latitudes: OBSERVED SHORTWAVE CLOUD FEEDBACK journal February 2016
Mixed‐phase cloud physics and Southern Ocean cloud feedback in climate models journal September 2015
On the relationships among cloud cover, mixed-phase partitioning, and planetary albedo in GCMs: CLOUD COVER, MIXED-PHASE, AND ALBEDO journal May 2016
On the relationship between extratropical cyclone precipitation and intensity: CYCLONE PRECIPITATION AND INTENSITY journal February 2016
Insights from a refined decomposition of cloud feedbacks: REFINED CLOUD FEEDBACK DECOMPOSITION journal September 2016
Cloud liquid water path and radiative feedbacks over the Southern Ocean: MIDLATITUDE FEEDBACKS journal October 2016
Aerosol optical depth distribution in extratropical cyclones over the Northern Hemisphere oceans: AEROSOLS IN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES journal October 2016
Constraining the low-cloud optical depth feedback at middle and high latitudes using satellite observations: CONSTRAINING LOW-CLOUD OPTICAL DEPTH FEEDBACK journal August 2016
Extratropical cyclone classification and its use in climate studies: CLASSIFYING EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONES journal June 2016
The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective: THE POLEWARD SHIFT OF STORM TRACKS journal October 2017
Identifying Meteorological Controls on Open and Closed Mesoscale Cellular Convection Associated with Marine Cold Air Outbreaks: Meteorological Controls on MCC Clouds journal November 2017
Observed Covariations of Aerosol Optical Depth and Cloud Cover in Extratropical Cyclones: Aerosol Versus Cloud in ETCs journal October 2017
An Uncertainty Data Set for Passive Microwave Satellite Observations of Warm Cloud Liquid Water Path journal April 2018
The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations journal February 2018
The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective: THE POLEWARD SHIFT OF STORM TRACKS journal October 2017
The Met Office Global Coupled Model 3.0 and 3.1 (GC3.0 and GC3.1) Configurations journal February 2018
Cloud Condensate and Radiative Feedbacks at Midlatitudes in an Aquaplanet journal April 2018
In situ observations of supercooled liquid clouds over the Southern Ocean during the HIAPER Pole‐to‐Pole Observation campaigns journal October 2013
Mechanisms of marine low cloud sensitivity to idealized climate perturbations: A single-LES exploration extending the CGILS cases: LES OF BOUNDARY-LAYER CLOUD FEEDBACK journal May 2013
Marine low cloud sensitivity to an idealized climate change: The CGILS LES intercomparison: CGILS LES Intercomparison journal May 2013
Boundary layer mechanisms in extratropical cyclones journal January 2007
Exploring the convective grey zone with regional simulations of a cold air outbreak
  • Field, Paul R.; Broz̆ková, Radmila; Chen, Ming
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 143, Issue 707 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.3105
journal July 2017
Using model analysis and satellite data to assess cloud and precipitation in midlatitude cyclones
  • Field, P. R.; Bodas-Salcedo, A.; Brooks, M. E.
  • Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, Vol. 137, Issue 659 https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.858
journal June 2011
Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review book May 2016
Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapor journal March 2005
Changes in winter cyclone frequencies and strengths simulated in enhanced greenhouse warming experiments: results from the models participating in the IPCC diagnostic exercise journal January 2006
Importance of the mixed-phase cloud distribution in the control climate for assessing the response of clouds to carbon dioxide increase: a multi-model study journal April 2006
Cyclone life cycle characteristics over the Northern Hemisphere in coupled GCMs journal January 2008
Changes in extratropical storm track cloudiness 1983–2008: observational support for a poleward shift journal April 2011
The CNRM-CM5.1 global climate model: description and basic evaluation journal January 2012
LMDZ5B: the atmospheric component of the IPSL climate model with revisited parameterizations for clouds and convection journal April 2012
Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 Earth System Model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5 journal February 2013
Extra-tropical cyclones in the present and future climate: a review journal January 2009
Low-Cloud Feedbacks from Cloud-Controlling Factors: A Review journal October 2017
Comparison of Special Sensor Microwave Imager and buoy-measured wind speeds from 1987 to 1997 journal June 2001
A 10 year intercomparison between collocated Special Sensor Microwave Imager oceanic surface wind speed retrievals and global analyses journal June 2001
Comparison of Special Sensor Microwave Imager and buoy-measured wind speeds from 1987 to 1997 journal June 2001
A 10 year intercomparison between collocated Special Sensor Microwave Imager oceanic surface wind speed retrievals and global analyses journal June 2001
On the limiting aerodynamic roughness of the ocean in very strong winds journal January 2004
A consistent poleward shift of the storm tracks in simulations of 21st century climate: POLEWARD SHIFT OF THE STORM TRACKS journal September 2005
Climate feedback implied by observed radiation and precipitation changes with midlatitude storm strength and frequency journal January 2006
Tropopause height and zonal wind response to global warming in the IPCC scenario integrations: ZONAL WIND RESPONSE TO GLOBAL WARMING journal May 2007
Occurrence, liquid water content, and fraction of supercooled water clouds from combined CALIOP/IIR/MODIS measurements journal January 2010
Pollution from China increases cloud droplet number, suppresses rain over the East China Sea: POLLUTION OVER EAST CHINA SEA journal May 2011
Contrasting the impact of aerosols at northern and southern midlatitudes on heterogeneous ice formation: AEROSOL EFFECT ON ICE FORMATION journal September 2011
Impacts of subpixel cloud heterogeneity on infrared thermodynamic phase assessment journal January 2011
Evaluation of cloud and water vapor simulations in CMIP5 climate models using NASA “A-Train” satellite observations: EVALUATION OF IPCC AR5 MODEL SIMULATIONS journal July 2012
Impact of a cloud thermodynamic phase parameterization based on CALIPSO observations on climate simulation: IMPACT OF A CLOUD PHASE PARAMETERIZATION journal May 2012
Evaluation of cloud and water vapor simulations in CMIP5 climate models using NASA “A-Train” satellite observations: EVALUATION OF IPCC AR5 MODEL SIMULATIONS journal July 2012
Thermodynamic constraint on the cloud liquid water feedback in climate models journal January 1987
Oceanic phytoplankton, atmospheric sulphur, cloud albedo and climate journal April 1987
Evidence for climate change in the satellite cloud record journal July 2016
Resilience of persistent Arctic mixed-phase clouds journal December 2011
Storm track processes and the opposing influences of climate change journal August 2016
Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change journal November 2017
The air-sea interface and surface stress under tropical cyclones journal June 2014
Insights into low-latitude cloud feedbacks from high-resolution models journal November 2015
Natural aerosols explain seasonal and spatial patterns of Southern Ocean cloud albedo journal July 2015
Phytoplankton and Cloudiness in the Southern Ocean journal December 2006
Observational and Model Evidence for Positive Low-Level Cloud Feedback journal July 2009
Observational constraints on mixed-phase clouds imply higher climate sensitivity journal April 2016
Possible Change of Extratropical Cyclone Activity due to Enhanced Greenhouse Gases and Sulfate Aerosols—Study with a High-Resolution AGCM journal July 2003
New Perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks journal March 2002
New Perspectives on the Northern Hemisphere Winter Storm Tracks journal March 2002
An Objective Cyclone Climatology for the Southern Hemisphere journal October 1994
An Objective Cyclone Climatology for the Southern Hemisphere journal October 1994
Cyclone Tracking in Different Spatial and Temporal Resolutions journal January 2000
Cyclone Tracking in Different Spatial and Temporal Resolutions journal January 2000
Limitations of Bispectral Infrared Cloud Phase Determination and Potential for Improvement journal November 2008
Midlatitude Cyclone Compositing to Constrain Climate Model Behavior Using Satellite Observations journal November 2008
Toward Optimal Closure of the Earth's Top-of-Atmosphere Radiation Budget journal February 2009
Will Extratropical Storms Intensify in a Warmer Climate? journal May 2009
Limitations of Bispectral Infrared Cloud Phase Determination and Potential for Improvement journal November 2008
Aircraft-Induced Hole Punch and Canal Clouds: Inadvertent Cloud Seeding journal June 2010
Understanding the Importance of Microphysics and Macrophysics for Warm Rain in Marine Low Clouds. Part II: Heuristic Models of Rain Formation journal October 2009
Simulation of Present-Day and Twenty-First-Century Energy Budgets of the Southern Oceans journal January 2010
Can Climate Models Capture the Structure of Extratropical Cyclones? journal April 2010
Can Climate Models Capture the Structure of Extratropical Cyclones? journal April 2010
Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity journal December 2010
Improved Climate Simulation by MIROC5: Mean States, Variability, and Climate Sensitivity journal December 2010
Quantification of Monthly Mean Regional-Scale Albedo of Marine Stratiform Clouds in Satellite Observations and GCMs journal October 2011
Evaluation of AIRS Cloud-Thermodynamic-Phase Determination with CALIPSO journal April 2014
Thermodynamic Phase and Ice Cloud Properties in Northern Hemisphere Winter Extratropical Cyclones Observed by Aqua AIRS journal November 2015
Observational Constraint for Precipitation in Extratropical Cyclones: Sensitivity to Data Sources journal April 2018
Marine Boundary Layer Cloud Feedbacks in a Constant Relative Humidity Atmosphere journal August 2012
Computing and Partitioning Cloud Feedbacks Using Cloud Property Histograms. Part I: Cloud Radiative Kernels journal June 2012
Computing and Partitioning Cloud Feedbacks Using Cloud Property Histograms. Part II: Attribution to Changes in Cloud Amount, Altitude, and Optical Depth journal June 2012
Investigating Global Tropical Cyclone Activity with a Hierarchy of AGCMs: The Role of Model Resolution journal January 2013
Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models journal September 2013
Contributions of Different Cloud Types to Feedbacks and Rapid Adjustments in CMIP5 journal July 2013
Origins of the Solar Radiation Biases over the Southern Ocean in CFMIP2 Models journal January 2014
Observed Southern Ocean Cloud Properties and Shortwave Reflection. Part II: Phase Changes and Low Cloud Feedback journal December 2014
On the Relationships between Subtropical Clouds and Meteorology in Observations and CMIP3 and CMIP5 Models journal April 2015
Reexamining the Relationship between Climate Sensitivity and the Southern Hemisphere Radiation Budget in CMIP Models journal December 2015
A 17-Yr Climate Record of Environmental Parameters Derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager journal September 2015
Mechanisms of the Negative Shortwave Cloud Feedback in Middle to High Latitudes journal January 2016
Quantifying the Sources of Intermodel Spread in Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity journal January 2016
The Change in Low Cloud Cover in a Warmed Climate Inferred from AIRS, MODIS, and ERA-Interim journal May 2017
Evaluation of Hemispheric Asymmetries in Marine Cloud Radiative Properties journal June 2017
Understanding the Varied Influence of Midlatitude Jet Position on Clouds and Cloud Radiative Effects in Observations and Global Climate Models journal December 2016
Evaluation of Cloud Liquid Water Path Trends Using a Multidecadal Record of Passive Microwave Observations journal August 2017
The Multisensor Advanced Climatology of Liquid Water Path (MAC-LWP) journal December 2017
North Pacific Cloud Feedbacks Inferred from Synoptic-Scale Dynamic and Thermodynamic Relationships journal November 2005
Storm Tracks and Climate Change journal August 2006
Observational Constraints on the Cloud Thermodynamic Phase in Midlatitude Storms journal October 2006
On the Relationship between Stratiform Low Cloud Cover and Lower-Tropospheric Stability journal December 2006
Precipitation and Cloud Structure in Midlatitude Cyclones journal January 2007
Improvements to the Geostationary Visible Imager Ray-Matching Calibration Algorithm for CERES Edition 4 journal December 2016
A 17-Yr Climate Record of Environmental Parameters Derived from the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Microwave Imager journal September 2015
Storm Tracks and Climate Change journal August 2006
Observational Constraints on the Cloud Thermodynamic Phase in Midlatitude Storms journal October 2006
Sensitivity of extratropical cyclone characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model journal July 2006
A 20-Year Climatology of a NICAM AMIP-Type Simulation journal January 2015
Sensitivity of extratropical cyclone characteristics to horizontal resolution in the ECMWF model. text January 2006
The contribution of the strength and structure of extratropical cyclones to observed cloud–aerosol relationships journal January 2013
The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder version 6 cloud products journal January 2014
An A-train and MERRA view of cloud, thermodynamic, and dynamic variability within the subtropical marine boundary layer journal January 2017
Predicting decadal trends in cloud droplet number concentration using reanalysis and satellite data journal January 2018
Aerosol midlatitude cyclone indirect effects in observations and high-resolution simulations journal January 2018
Development and evaluation of an Earth-System model – HadGEM2 journal January 2011
The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model climate configurations journal January 2011
The HadGEM2 family of Met Office Unified Model Climate configurations journal January 2011
Development and evaluation of an Earth-system model – HadGEM2 journal January 2011
Response of the Midlatitude Jets, and of Their Variability, to Increased Greenhouse Gases in the CMIP5 Models text January 2013

Cited By (2)

The Nonhydrostatic ICosahedral Atmospheric Model for CMIP6 HighResMIP simulations (NICAM16-S): experimental design, model description, and impacts of model updates journal February 2021
The Role of Thermodynamic Phase Shifts in Cloud Optical Depth Variations With Temperature journal April 2019

Figures / Tables (14)

Table 1(p. 6)table Table 1
Table 2(p. 8)table Table 2
Figure 1(p. 10)figure Figure 1
Figure 2(p. 11)figure Figure 2
Figure 3(p. 13)figure Figure 3
Figure 4(p. 14)figure Figure 4
Figure 5(p. 15)figure Figure 5
Figure 6(p. 17)figure Figure 6
Figure 7(p. 17)figure Figure 7
Figure 8(p. 18)figure Figure 8
Figure 10(p. 19)figure Figure 10
Figure 9(p. 19)figure Figure 9
Figure 11(p. 21)figure Figure 11
Figure 12(p. 21)figure Figure 12

Similar Records

A Regime-Oriented Approach to Observationally Constraining Extratropical Shortwave Cloud Feedbacks
Journal Article · Thu Oct 22 00:00:00 EDT 2020 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:1762839
Extratropical Cloud Feedback Constrained by Cloud Sources and Sinks in Cyclones
Journal Article · Tue Dec 02 19:00:00 EST 2025 · Journal of Climate · OSTI ID:3007290

Related Subjects

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES