Toward Robust Climate Baselining: Objective Assessment of Climate Change Using Widely Distributed Miniaturized Sensors for Accurate World-Wide Geophysical Measurements
A gap-free, world-wide, ocean-, atmosphere-, and land surface-spanning geophysical data-set of three decades time-duration containing the full set of geophysical parameters characterizing global weather is the scientific perquisite for defining the climate; the generally-accepted definition in the meteorological community is that climate is the 30-year running-average of weather. Until such a tridecadal climate base line exists, climate change discussions inevitably will have a semi-speculative, vs. a purely scientific, character, as the baseline against which changes are referenced will be at least somewhat uncertain. The contemporary technology base provides ways-and-means for commencing the development of such a meteorological measurement-intensive climate baseline, moreover with a program budget far less than the {approx}$2.5 B/year which the US. currently spends on ''global change'' studies. In particular, the recent advent of satellite-based global telephony enables real-time control of, and data-return from, instrument packages of very modest scale, and Silicon Revolution-based sensor, data-processing and -storage advances permit 'intelligent' data-gathering payloads to be created with 10 gram-scale mass budgets. A geophysical measurement system implemented in such modern technology is a populous constellation 03 long-lived, highly-miniaturized robotic weather stations deployed throughout the weather-generating portions of the Earths atmosphere, throughout its oceans and across its land surfaces. Leveraging the technological advances of the OS, the filly-developed atmospheric weather station of this system has a projected weight of the order of 1 ounce, and contains a satellite telephone, a GPS receiver, a full set of atmospheric sensing instruments and a control computer - and has an operational life of the order of 1 year and a mass-production cost of the order of $$20. Such stations are effectively ''intra-atmospheric satellites'' but likely have serial-production unit costs only about twenty-billionths that of a contemporary NASA global change satellite, whose entirely-remote sensing capabilities they complement with entirely-local sensing. It's thus feasible to deploy millions of them, and thereby to intensively monitor all aspects of the Earths weather. Analogs of these atmospheric weather stations will be employed to provide comparable-quality reporting of oceanic and land-surface geophysical parameters affecting weather. This definitive climate baselining system could be in initial-prototype operation on a one-year time-scale, and in intermediate-scale, proof-of-principle operation within three years, at a total cost of {approx}$$95M. Steady-state operating costs are estimated to be {approx} $$75M/year, or {approx}3% of the current US. ''global change'' program-cost. Its data-return would be of great value very quickly as simply the best weather information, and within a few years as the definitive climatic variability-reporting system. It would become the generator of a definitive climate baseline at a total present-value cost of {approx}$$0.9 B.
- Research Organization:
- Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)
- Sponsoring Organization:
- USDOE
- DOE Contract Number:
- W-7405-ENG-48
- OSTI ID:
- 15013319
- Report Number(s):
- UCRL-JC-146203; TRN: US200802%%1145
- Resource Relation:
- Conference: 26th International Symposium on Planetary Emergencies, Erice, Italy, Aug 20 - Aug 24, 2001
- Country of Publication:
- United States
- Language:
- English
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